NO BEAR WATCHES JUST YET

[KatDaddy]

Houston-Galveston Area NWS Forecast disc showing changes for SE TX.

Possible Arctic front.......................

A SHORT BREAK POSSIBLE SUNDAY BUT THE NEXT UPPER LOW/TROF PROGGED TO
SCOOT QUICKLY ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND DEEPENS OVER THE FAR SW U.S.
THIS STORM SYSTEM FCST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MON ALONG WITH PROGS
OF A SFC LOW. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...A SHALLOW UPPER TROF BY
MID WEEK TO PRECEDE A RATHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT FOR THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THESE RUNS ARE ADVERTISING SOME MIGHTY INT-
ERESTING WX IN THE COMING DAYS...THERE'S STILL A LOT OF TIME BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN. NO BEAR WATCHES JUST YET...

[vbhoutex]

HHHHHMMMMMM???????????? Vewy interestink!!!!!!

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like we could be seeing a significant severe weather outbreak Monday and possible arctic front later in the week? I'm sure we could use the rain just hope things don't get out of hand.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER
BEFORE THINGS TURN DOWNHILL AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...WE`LL GRADUALLY BE SEEING A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE
IN OUR AREA AND BRINGS IN INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. BY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A BIT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AT ALL LEVELS. STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBLE FIREWORKS COMING TOGETHER OVER THE WEEKEND
AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT MONDAY AS A SERIES OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE AREA. EXACT STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THESE
EJECTING IMPULSES AND ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES WILL PLAY A
MAJOR FACTOR AS TO WHERE AND WHEN ANY SEVERE WEATHER DOES DEVELOP.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD PERIODS OF HIGH
HELICITY AND VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS MOISTURE LEVELS
POOL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DO NOT WANT TO GET SPECIFIC YET AND
TRY TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING OF THIS/THESE EVENT/EVENTS AS WE
STILL HAVE MORE THAN THREE DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TO ALTER THE
STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE EJECTING UPPER LOWS. SO FOR NOW...WILL GO
AHEAD AND CALL FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES (60%) FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT SOME OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS`S WORST
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS HAVE BEEN NOVEMBER EVENTS. 42
&&

[KatDaddy]

Even more interesting......kinda spooky


POSSIBLE FIREWORKS COMING TOGETHER OVER THE WEEKEND
AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT MONDAY AS A SERIES OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE AREA. EXACT STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THESE
EJECTING IMPULSES AND ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES WILL PLAY A
MAJOR FACTOR AS TO WHERE AND WHEN ANY SEVERE WEATHER DOES DEVELOP.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD PERIODS OF HIGH
HELICITY AND VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS MOISTURE LEVELS
POOL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DO NOT WANT TO GET SPECIFIC YET AND
TRY TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING OF THIS/THESE EVENT/EVENTS AS WE
STILL HAVE MORE THAN THREE DAYS OF MODEL RUNS TO ALTER THE
STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE EJECTING UPPER LOWS. SO FOR NOW...WILL GO
AHEAD AND CALL FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES (60%) FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT SOME OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS'S WORST
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS HAVE BEEN NOVEMBER EVENTS.

[brunota2003]

THIS is interesting:

THICKNESSES START OUT
COLD WED EVE BUT WARM UP OVERNIGHT WITH WAA THAN ANY PCPN WOULD BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN.

I guess we could possibly see some frozen stuff before the switch to ALL rain?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

[Yankeegirl]

Great! I have to work Friday and Saturday nights... We are open later than the norm cause of the shopping days... I hope it rains so the people go home after they shop rather than hang out at Starbucks!!!

[jeff]

Very active weekend weather event in store for the area including both severe and heavy rainfall possibilities.

Absent sub-tropical connection so far this fall will return from vacation this weekend and provide much headaches for TX. A potent upper level storm system will eject eastward into TX on Saturday into a moist and unstable atmosphere. Jet stream dynamics are forecast to be quite favorable for both a significant severe threat and heavy rainfall event. Each threat will be discussed below, but one must remember we are talking about 3 days off and typically if it were not a holiday week I would not be mentioning the expected event so soon.

Severe Threat:
Track of potent upper low could mean a significant severe weather event for SE TX Saturday into Monday. Low level moist air mass will return by Friday with a surface boundary stalling over the area. Low level shear increases dramatically Saturday with stalled boundary in the area and increasing SW mid level flow. Helecity values are quite substantial and given a stalled boundary in the region a tornado threat is very much possible. I suspect surface low pressure will form somewhere over SC TX and track NE with potent dynamics and favorable regions of the stream jet overhead. All severe modes could be realized and one should note that some of SE TX worst severe weather events have been in Nov (Nov 1992 for sure).

Heavy Rainfall Threat:
Persistent southerly low level flow should commence sometime late Wednesday and gradually replenish our bone dry atmosphere. Dewpoints should creep back into the 60's by Friday with PWS increasing to around 1.3-1.5 inches by Saturday morning. One must be concerned about an increasing low level jet from the south interacting with a stalled frontal boundary over the region. Fear of echo entrainment with aligned upper level flow is worrying with respect to heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Rainfall deficits are running in the 6-10 inch range across the region, but the potential of a multi-day prolonged event is of some concern. Main concern at this time would be for strong thunderstorms to anchor along the stalled boundary and train NE along this boundary for 12-24 hours with a moist uninterrupted low level inflow from the south.

It must be noted that this event is still 3 days out and timing along with track and intensity of the ejecting storm systems from the SW will have to be fined tuned.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Looks like NWS Lubbock sees something down the road.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
447 AM CST WED NOV 23 2005

OLD MAN WINTER MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE SOUTH PALINS AS A MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE DGEX AND GFS HINTING AT THE
FIRST REAL ARCTIC AIRMASS TO PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH REACHING THE SOUTH PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE TRENDED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS THINKING.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT JUMP IN HOOK LINE AND SINKER GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN A DAY 7 THROUGH 9 OUTLOOK FORECAST.

Jeff since you are our resident Texas weather expert, what's your take on the December weather pattern for Texas? Will it be a December to remember?

[gboudx]

Jeff, is that forecast only for SETX? We could use a bunch of rain up here in NCTX as well.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Jeff, is that forecast only for SETX? We could use a bunch of rain up here in NCTX as well.

I think the whole state could use a prolonged wet pattern. I had 2 inches of rain in about 45 minutes two weeks ago Monday and now the ground on the vacant lot next to my home looks like it hasn't rained in months.

[jeff]

Looks like NWS Lubbock sees something down the road.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
447 AM CST WED NOV 23 2005

OLD MAN WINTER MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE SOUTH PALINS AS A MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE DGEX AND GFS HINTING AT THE
FIRST REAL ARCTIC AIRMASS TO PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH REACHING THE SOUTH PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE TRENDED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS THINKING.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT JUMP IN HOOK LINE AND SINKER GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN A DAY 7 THROUGH 9 OUTLOOK FORECAST.

Jeff since you are our resident Texas weather expert, what's your take on the December weather pattern for Texas? Will it be a December to remember?

GFS has been indicating an arctic air outbreak the first around the Dec 2nd period and a much stronger one around the 6-7. As a deepening mid latitude cyclone cranks from TX to the western Great Lakes early next week it could unlock the floodgates allowing cold air to surge southward. The pattern is favorable for cold air to reach TX during the middle to end of next week. Main question as with the weekend event is intensity and track of the upper level storm system. If I had to give an answer I would suspect a decent cool down middle to end of next week and it could be down right cold the following week, but as always the GFS will flip around a few times and shallow cold arctic air masses are hard to forecast anyhow. Main concern right now is the weekend weather event.

[jeff]

Jeff, is that forecast only for SETX? We could use a bunch of rain up here in NCTX as well.

Severe threat will be along and south of warm front which should stay to your south on Saturday. Good lift and dynamics should result in widespread overrunning rainfall especially across the southern 1/2 of N TX. Widespread .5-1.0 inch is possible Saturday. Warm front should reach well into N TX Sunday with a severe and heavy rainfall threat as deep Gulf moisture surges northward. GFS suggest a strong squall line linear MCS along a dry line during the afternoon hours Sunday. May also see some wrap around moisture Monday as the upper level storm system track along the Red River. Should be a good soaking, but not a drought ending rainfall...it would take several days of steady rainfall to end the 12-14 inch deficits now running across N TX.

[Yankeegirl]

I looked at the news tonight, and some of the local mets are talking about more of a rain severe weather event for mainly Sunday afternoon... Thoughts?

[jeff]

I looked at the news tonight, and some of the local mets are talking about more of a rain severe weather event for mainly Sunday afternoon... Thoughts?

Based on the latest guidance runs, it appears Sunday and Monday will be drier as the next upper level trough ejects well north of TX with mainly a zonal flow over the state and much lower moisture levels.

This will not be the case Friday night and Saturday as a potent upper level trough moves from old Mexico across SC TX. Surface low pressure should form along a warm frontal boundary near Victoria and lift NE. This should warm sector much of SE TX. Shear profiles are quite impressive however surface based instability may be lacking due to a short duration of return flow. With a 45kt low level jet overhead and a 100-120 kt jet streak with SE TX positioned in the favorable ascent left exit region it should be a rough period from around midnight Friday through early afternoon Saturday. Main threat appears to be damaging winds and large hail, but some tornadoes will be possible near the warm front where low level shear will be maximized. Should surface based instability be greater than forecast a larger severe weather event would be possible with an increased tornado threat.

[Yankeegirl]

Grrrrreat!


Thanks Jeff, I live by your forecasts... Much better than the local mets, not mentioning any names.... lol....

[Yankeegirl]

Well not too much rain to speak of here, just dark and gloomy out.... definately nothing severe...

[jeff]

Most of the bad weather "severe and excessive rianfall" remained south of I-10 where surface boundary remained anchored. Nearly 4.0 inches over Wharton County and 2-3 inches of S Harris and N galveston County. Severe was way limited by lack of instability and poor quality of Gulf moisture return.