LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL AFFECT THE GULF COAST AND SERN STATES DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK / 12/28 AND 12/29 /. CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THIS SAME REGION WILL SCOUR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH RETURN FLOW
REGIME IS FORECAST OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY / 12/27 /.
THIS RETURNING MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
INCREASED FORCING AND VERTICAL WIND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES ON WEDNESDAY
12/28 AND THURSDAY 12/29. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE
THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...GA AND FL.
Birmingham NWS:
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A DIFFERENT AIRMASS THAN THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS SO
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND CONFIDENCE IS BETTER. ADDED
THUNDER FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND KEPT LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARM WILL ADD LIKELY THUNDER
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO SPENT QUITE A BIT OF TIME LOOKING AT
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS AND FEEL THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NOT TO GET TO TECHNICAL...BUT LI/S WILL BE IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE
(INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT)...PLENTY OF
OMEGA (LIFT)...THE SWEAT INDEX IS OVER 300...EHI IS IN AN
ACCEPTABLE RANGE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...AND THE
BULK RICHARDSON SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 100. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS PROGRESS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
