FINALLY ---> RAIN!!!!!!!!!

[wxmann_91]

The GFS has been pretty consistent with a parade of storms moving into SoCal by the beginning of the New Year!!!! Oh please Lord let not this be a bust.

NWS LOX (Los Angeles/Oxnard):

.LONG TERM...
MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS REMAINS PRETTY GOOD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY AND...WHILE SOME BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...RIDGING BEGINS MOVING IN LATER IN THE DAY. SO
WE EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE COOL AND DRY. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE THEN
COVERS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SO FRIDAY STARTS OUT DRY...
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVING DOWN THE CENTRAL COAST DURING THE
DAY. THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. AT THE PRESENT TIME...WE STILL EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL CLEAR THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT POPS HAVE NOW
INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD SEE A CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THEN ANOTHER TROUGH IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

NWS SGX (San Diego)

RIGHT NOW...THE STRONG MID-PACIFIC JET STREAM...WITH CORE WIND
SPEEDS APPROACHING 200 KT...IS A BIT SOUTH OF 40 DEG N...WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE MID-LATITUDES IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC...BUT THE JET STREAM IS MUCH LESS ACTIVE OVER THE E PAC. BY
LATE IN THE WEEK...IT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH A FEW MORE DEGREES AND
EXTEND FURTHER EAST IN THE PACIFIC...LIKELY PLACING US UNDER THE
STORM TRACK. ALSO...THE GFS INDICATES RATHER WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AT
QUITE A FEW PRESSURE LEVELS...INCLUDING 850...700 AND 500 MB.
THUS...ADD THE STORM TRACK AND RH TOGETHER AND YOU GET A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN HERE. THUS...IN THE GRIDS AND THE ZONES...I WILL
ELEVATE OUR SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE 5+ DAYS OUT IS THE TIMING...BUT
IT APPEARS QUITE LIKELY THAT FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET PRECIP
SOMETIME EITHER NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THIS EARLY...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS SOMETIME IN THE SAT-MON TIMEFRAME...EVEN AN INCH
AT THE COAST AND A FEW INCHES ON W AND/OR S SLOPES OF THE MTNS. THIS
WOULD MOST BE A "WARM STORM" WITH STRATIFORM AND UPSLOPING PROCESSES
WITH THE RAIN VERSUS CONVECTIVE PROCESSES...AND THE SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE HIGH...PROBABLY ABOVE MOST POPULATED LOCATIONS.
RIGHT NOW...THE STRONG MID-PACIFIC JET STREAM...WITH CORE WIND
SPEEDS APPROACHING 200 KT...IS A BIT SOUTH OF 40 DEG N...WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE MID-LATITUDES IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC...BUT THE JET STREAM IS MUCH LESS ACTIVE OVER THE E PAC. BY
LATE IN THE WEEK...IT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH A FEW MORE DEGREES AND
EXTEND FURTHER EAST IN THE PACIFIC...LIKELY PLACING US UNDER THE
STORM TRACK. ALSO...THE GFS INDICATES RATHER WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AT
QUITE A FEW PRESSURE LEVELS...INCLUDING 850...700 AND 500 MB.
THUS...ADD THE STORM TRACK AND RH TOGETHER AND YOU GET A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN HERE. THUS...IN THE GRIDS AND THE ZONES...I WILL
ELEVATE OUR SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE 5+ DAYS OUT IS THE TIMING...BUT
IT APPEARS QUITE LIKELY THAT FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET PRECIP
SOMETIME EITHER NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THIS EARLY...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS SOMETIME IN THE SAT-MON TIMEFRAME...EVEN AN INCH
AT THE COAST AND A FEW INCHES ON W AND/OR S SLOPES OF THE MTNS. THIS
WOULD MOST BE A "WARM STORM" WITH STRATIFORM AND UPSLOPING PROCESSES
WITH THE RAIN VERSUS CONVECTIVE PROCESSES...AND THE SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE HIGH...PROBABLY ABOVE MOST POPULATED LOCATIONS.

[wxmann_91]

System on track still...and the NWS Los Angeles AFD is quite ominous.

GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...BUT INTENSITY
AND EXPECTED MODERATE IMPACT ON SOUTHWEST CALIFORIA REMAINS
UNCHANGED. SOME WARM ADVECTION LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
NORTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY...DECREASING SATURDAY EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW
INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON SOUTHWEST FACING COASTAL SLOPES
WITH ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. IT
APPEARS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING A POWERFUL STORM INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY. 06Z/18 GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE 00Z/28
ECMWF IN SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM
ADVECTION RAINS MAY DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY MONDAY. RAINFALL
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. RAIN...WITH
SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SHOULD DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND
END EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL ON SOME SOUTHWEST FACING COASTAL SLOPES FROM LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

AFTER TUESDAY...ECMWF/GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT BOTH SHOW A DRIER
AND ESS STORMY PATTERN FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE)...
THE SYSTEM WILL SHARPEN AS IT APCHS THE W CST FRI NIGHT...AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MID LVL DYNAMICS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THE CENTRAL CST. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES FRI NIGHT...AND DECENT SLY LOW
LVL FLOW SHOULD BRING GOOD OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE RAINFALL
THERE. THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SOME...
AND IT WAS NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM...SUGGESTING
THAT THE ONSET OF RAIN ACROSS L.A. COUNTY WITH THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT OR SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS FOR FRI NIGHT IN ALL AREAS SINCE THERE COULD BE SOME
RAIN DEVELOPING LATE ACRS L.A./VTU COUNTIES IN ASSOCITATION WITH THE
OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AND...HAS BEEN POINTED
OUT BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS...WITH SUCH A STRONG JET ACRS THE PAC...A
FASTER SCENARIO MAY BE BETTER. IF LATER MODELS CONT TO TREND
SLOWER...LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADJUST TO DELAY TIMING...BUT
OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN FOR THE FCST AREA...MAINLY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY N OF PT
CONCEPTION...AND SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS (POSSIBLY UP TO 3
INCHES ACROSS SBA AND SLO COUNTIES)...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A VERY REAL THREAT
FOR THE BURN AREAS...AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED IF THE SYSTEM STAYS ON TRACK.

THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD
DURING THE WEEKEND WHERE THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN...AND SKIES
COULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. THE MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A VERY
IMPRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM APCHG THE W CST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ONSHORE ON MONDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH
THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS IS THE ECMWF. A VIGOROUS 500 MB TROUGH
WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APCHS THE W CST SUNDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING A VERY STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY N OF PT CONCEPTION. THIS SYSTEM THEN CLOSES
OFF AS IT MOVES INTO THEN CENTRAL CA CST LATE MONDAY MORNING OR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW VERY STRONG MID LVL LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY ASSOCD WITH GOOD HEIGHT FALLS
AND POSITIVE VORT ADVECTION. AT THE SFC...A DECENT SFC LOW IS FCST
TO PUSH INTO THE BAY AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A VERY STRONG SFC FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE AREA. GFS SHOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 60 KT AT 850 MB
AHEAD OF THE POTENT SFC FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. THE JET PATTERN IS
FCST TO BE NEARLY IDEAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WITH SRN CA IN THE BEST
LOCATION FOR DYNAMICS ASSOCD WITH TWO SEPARATE JETS...THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF ONE PULLING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AND THE LEFT FRONT
QUAD OF A 140 KT JET NOSING JUST S OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTETIAL TO BRING VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS TO THE FCST AREA SUN
NIGHT AND/OR MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY AND INSTABILITY
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO
MON ON THE CENTRAL COAST...AND MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MON NIGHT
ACROSS L.A./VTU COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THIS IS ETCHED IN
STONE...AND TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...IT WILL BRING A
SERIOUS THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IF IT UNFOLDS AS THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING...ESPECIALLY TO THE BURN AREAS...AND RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY
TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS ON THIS POTENTIALLY SERIOUS SITUATION.
DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH RAIN LIKELY
ENDING MON NIGHT.

[weatherlover427]

Here are the latest AFD's as of 2:50PM PST:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 230 PM PST WED DEC 28 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS. THE NEXT STORM MAY BRING MODERATE RAINFALL...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. A STRONGER STORM FOR MONDAY COULD BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND MORE RAINFALL.

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BRINGING LIGHT RAIN. POPS/QPF FOLLOW GFS TIMING...ALTHOUGH THE MODEL IS A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZY UNDER BANDS OF FRONTAL CLOUDS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST CA WITH SOME EMBEDDED RAIN. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING QUICKLY AND THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY ABOUT 8 PM LOCAL TIME.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA DRY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WITH SOME NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS. THE MODEL ALSO INDICATES A WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON THU SO TEMPS MAY WARM SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MTNS.

GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...BUT INTENSITY AND EXPECTED MODERATE IMPACT ON SOUTHWEST CALIFORIA REMAINS UNCHANGED. SOME WARM ADVECTION LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...DECREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON SOUTHWEST FACING COASTAL SLOPES WITH ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING STRONG 850 MB WINDS FOR SATURDAY...SO THE MOUNTAINS AND THE DESERTS COULD SEE ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS. IT APPEARS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY UNDER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING A POWERFUL STORM INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY. 06Z/18 GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE 00Z/28 ECMWF IN SHOWING SLIGHTLY GREATER AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION RAINS MAY DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY MONDAY. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. RAIN...WITH SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SHOULD DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND END EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ON SOME SOUTHWEST FACING COASTAL SLOPES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FINALLY GOT A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS BUT SAW NO COMPELLING REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST.

AFTER TUESDAY...ECMWF/GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT BOTH SHOW A DRIER AND ESS STORMY PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA.



SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 145 PM PST WED DEC 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...FAST MOVING AND DYING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS WERE REPORTED AND STILL A FEW TO GO THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE EXCEPTIONS BEING SOME LINGERING NORTH SLOPE AND INTERIOR SLO COUNTY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE LIGHT RAIN TODAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SBA AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND OTHER MTN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AS I THINK WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY AOB 40 MPH.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL SO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER DUE TO THE INCREASE IN SUNSHINE OVER TODAY.

ON FRIDAY, CLOUDS FROM THE FIRST OF TWO BIG STORM SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN ARRIVING. WARM FRONTAL LIGHT RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY, SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE LA BASIN FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND SATURDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM SBA SOUTH. SEE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR LATEST RAINFALL ESTIMATES. THEY WILL BE IMPRESSIVE. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW (60-70) FRI NT INTO SAT, BUT AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE TIMING WE`LL BUMP THOSE UP TO AT LEAST 80-90.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING (GOOD TIMING FOR NEW YEARS) BEFORE THE STRONGEST STORM OF THE SEASON SLAMS ONSHORE. THE ONLY ISSUE ABOUT THIS ONE IS THE TIMING. 12Z GFS WAS DELAYED SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AND I WASN`T ABLE TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DETAILS, BUT FROM THE INTERNET GRAPHICS IT APPEARS THE 12Z RUN WAS SIMILAR IN TIMING TO THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS, WHICH WERE ACTUALLY A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE 12Z RUN YESTERDAY. THIS IS VERY BAD NEWS FOR THE ROSE PARADE BECAUSE THE GFS SHOWS THE STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM ARRIVING IN THE LA AREA DURING THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. ALL THE INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR A HEFTY PRECIP AND WIND EVENT FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND EVERYONE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD BE PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FORECASTS FOR BOTH THE SATURDAY AND MONDAY STORMS. OF PARTIUCULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE BURN AREAS, ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE BURNED RECENTLY. WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR AT LEAST THESE AREAS BY FRIDAY.

NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE PARTICULARLY COLD SO SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, PROBABLY THE TOP TWO THIRDS OF THE SKI RESORTS. POSSIBLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE LAST STORM MOVES THROUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL LOW ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW DOWN TO 6000 FEET OR SO.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME STILL LOOKS DRY WITH ACTUALLY VERY PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA.

[wxmann_91]

NWS Oxnard's AFD's are often very detailed and juicy with stuff before a big event, and this is no exception. And notice the bolded part, can someone please explain that to me? Thanks.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SOME RAIN HAS OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN SLO/SBA COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT MUCH SHOWING UP ON
RADAR BUT STILL A QUARTER TO HALF INCH HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVERNIGHT
OVER EXTREME NWRN SLO COUNTY. ELSEWHERE IN THIS AREAS GENERALLY LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH HAS BEEN NOTED. VERY FAST JET CORE NEAR 200
KTS NEAR 38N/155W WAS DRIVING A WEATHER SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL CA THIS
MORNING. LATEST AMSU TPWAT IMAGERY SHOWED A MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL CA TO NEAR GUAM...WITH THE HIEST PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES EXTENDING TO A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF HAWAII. THIS PLUME
IS FORECAST TO SAG S INTO SWRN CA TODAY...ALONG WITH A PACIFIC FRONT
WHICH SHOULD MOVE THRU THE REGION FROM LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES. THE
BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT SLO/SBA COUNTIES.
ALSO...THE STRONGEST OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS
SLO/SBA COUNTIES...WHERE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 35 AND 55 KNOTS. WHILE OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH ACROSS LA/VTU COUNTIES...THERE COULD BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL COINCIDING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BURN AREAS TODAY...PLEASE SEE LAXFFALOX FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. WITH TIGHTENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT AND
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL PACK STRONG
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS...WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND
50 MPH ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES...AND
GUSTS TO 55 MPH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN
POSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE L.A./VTU MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WINDS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT (LAXNPWLOX).

A BRIEF BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ONE AND TWO WILL TAKE PLACE LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW RAIN
ARRIVING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON UP NORTH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS ALL THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER...WITH VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT...GOOD JET
DYNAMICS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5
INCHES)...AND VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY OROGRAPHIC WINDS (40-60 KNOTS AT
850 MB LEVEL). IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE ON NAM CROSS SECTIONS AN
AREA OF OMEGAS OF 100 MICROBARS PER SECOND AT 18Z MON OVER THE VTU
COAST. I CANNOT RECALL EVER SEEING SUCH HIGH OMEGAS BEFORE OVER THE
REGION...VERY IMPRESSIVE. IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST BURST OF
RAINFALL WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES PER
HOUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS.
WITH SUCH STRONG DYNAMICAL LIFTING AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY...THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THIS SECOND
STORM ARE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT 3
TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS.
FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES...EXCEPT AREAS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND
VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

WITH A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND VERY INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES...THE BURN AREAS WILL CERTAINLY BE AT A VERY HIGH
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BURN AREAS HAS
BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME TO COVER THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM. PLEASE SEE
LAXFFALOX FOR DETAILS. OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
LIKELY TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS. IN
SHORT...STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY WET TIME PERIOD FOR THE ROSE PARADE
MONDAY MORNING. REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
(LAXSPSLOX) FOR MORE DETAILS ON THESE UPCOMING SYSTEMS.

BOTH STORMS WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH WIND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SW CA...AND HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70
MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. WITH
SUCH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN FOR DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES ACROSS THE REGION. PLEASE
SEE LAXNOWLOX FOR DETAILS ON THE WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND
WATCHES.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS STORM WILL BE TOO WARM TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW BELOW 7000 FEET (OUR CRITERIA FOR WINTER STORM
HEADLINES) BUT SKI RESORTS (AT LEAST THE TOP HALF OF THEM) MAY STILL
GET A DECENT SHOT OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP BRIEFLY DOWN TO 6000 FEET OR SO MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THE BULK OF THE STORM WILL BE GONE BY THEN.

[weatherlover427]

I saw that too, it has me wondering. Whatever it is, it can't be good; especially since the Monday storm is to be the bigger of the two.

[wxmann_91]

Rain has been falling much of the day today, but rates have been small, so no problems it seems.

The new AFD from LOX once again is downright scary:

NEW NAM AND GFS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. ALL CONTINUE TO POINT A MAJOR RAIN
EVENT SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MDLS SHOW A LARGE PLUME
OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SW ARRIVING AT ABOUT 21Z. MDLS ALSO
SHOW SOME MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PLUME WITH A LOW LEVEL
SOUTH WIND. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE MORNING TIME PERIOD.

AFTER THAT ITS ALL ABOUT THE RAIN. BOTH MDLS SHOW 12 TO 15 HOURS OF
STRONG SOUTH FLOW EBBEDED IN A 1.5 INCH PW PLUME. IF THIS VERIFIES OUR
10 INCH MOUNTAIN RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE TOO LOW WILL LOOK AT 06Z DATA
AND SEE IF AMOUNTS NEED TO BE BUMPED UP.

HIGH WIND WATCH ON TRACK BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW 50 TO 55 KT WINDS AT
850 MB.

BOTH MDLS INDICATE A SECOND SMALL IMPULSE RUNNING OVER THE AREA LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY MAY HAVE TO TWIDDLE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
IN THE 300 AM UPDATE.

[weatherlover427]

The NWS in San Diego has my winds gusting to 37mph tomorrow (Monday) so I'll have to make sure I have all the loose objects off of my patio later this morning or early afternoon before the rain starts. We usually get strong winds here with the big systems (had some gusts near 50mph with a few of the storms last year and rain totals over 6-7", along with numerous power outages) so we'll probably be seeing that again. My flashlight has extra batteries just in case the power does go out (like it usually does in big storms here ).

[wxmann_91]

There is a HUGE slug of rain pounding the Central Coast associated with a MASSIVE subtropical connection.

Satellite

Santa Maria, CA radar

[Brent]

Looks like the Tournament of Roses parade will be very wet... I'm wondering, with the strong winds forecast, if they'll even be able to have all the floats.

[wxmann_91]

TWC's really hyping this up...Stephanie Abrams is in Santa Monica tonight.

[wxmann_91]

Very impressive comma-head approaching SoCal, I'm assuming this is what will bring the 1-1.5" / hr rates that I've been hearing for so long.

Satellite

[wxmann_91]

Wind is blowing very hard here.

Flash Flood Warning out for entire LA county, including Pasadena, where the Rose Bowl Parade is going on.

[wxmann_91]

This is a very impressive system...comma-head visible from SF radar, about to come ashore. Meanwhile, winds are screaming like heck here.

[Brent]

I think TX/OK is now the driest place on Earth...

[Aslkahuna]

Unfortunately, TX/OK will remain dry when this system hits the Plains just like the previous ones-being too far north to bring anything other than wind and more dry air to them. Omegas generally refer to the amount of synoptic lifting that is occurring in a system and 100 micro bars per second is some really potent lifting going on independent of the terrain lifting that occurs just inland from the coast.

Steve

[wxmann_91]

Thanks for the explanation about omegas Steve.

Breaking - Severe Thunderstorm Warning in effect for LA County, yes, even the T word is mentioned.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
1145 AM PST MON JAN 2 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OXNARD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR..
EAST CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA

* UNTIL 1215 PM PST

* AT 1136 AM PST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR DIAMOND BAR TO AZUSA
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR..
CITY OF INDUSTRY ALONG INTERSTATE 60 BY 1150 AM PST
CLAREMONT BY 1155 AM PST
POMONA BY 1155 AM PST

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A WEAK TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3402 11804 3391 11788 3434 11740 3449 11761

$$

MOYER/GOMBERG

[wxmann_91]

New severe thunderstorm warning - watch out weatherlover427!!!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1221 PM PST MON JAN 2 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR..
WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TEMECULA...RUBIDOUX...RIVERSIDE..
PERRIS...NORCO...MORENO VALLEY...LAKE ELSINORE...HEMET...CORONA..
BANNING
SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FOREST FALLS...YUCAIPA...UPLAND...SAN
BERNARDINO...RIALTO...REDLANDS...RANCHO CUCAMONGA...ONTARIO..
HIGHLAND...FONTANA...COLTON...CHINO
EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO...MISSION
VIEJO...LAGUNA NIGUEL...LAGUNA HILLS...LAGUNA BEACH...DANA POINT

* UNTIL 130 PM PST

* AT 1215 PM PST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUTR 25 MPH.


DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3344 11778 3341 11765 3357 11749 3348 11715
3350 11653 3415 11673 3432 11718 3429 11759
3396 11775

$$

SMALL/ATKIN

Meanwhile, the winds continue to pick up here. Easily some of the strongest winds I've ever seen. I estimate sustained of around 25 mph with gusts up to tropical storm strength.

[wxmann_91]

Most recently the strongest gusts I am estimating around 50-60 mph.

Weirdest thing is, my dad is planning to go to Computer USA now, and on my radar screen this huge squall line is approaching (the same one spawning the Svr warnings above).

[wxmann_91]

My dad and uncle are out the door...crazy.

The good thing is winds have subsided a bit, but still gusting around 40, sustained about 25.

Rainfall rates are not as impressive as I thought it would be, but probably got a good half inch today.

Comma-head is currently moving onshore between Monterey and Paso Robles. Heavy rain in the Bay Area now.

[wxmann_91]

Wow...heavy rains just a few minutes ago...strong winds as well associated with fropa. Pretty much over now, but that was a great short system.