Major outbreak of Severe WX expected in the Southeast

[Brent]

These graphics are downright scary for Eastern Alabama into Georgia... if this verifies, there could be some long-tracked violent tornadoes.





Unreal for Early January...

[Brent]

NWS Jackson:

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONG WIND SHEAR (OR THIS CHANGE IN WIND SPEED OR DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT) WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WIND SHEAR WILL FOSTER AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

[wx247]

This definitely looks to be a strong storm system, looking much more like a springtime system than something in the winter. Severe weather is so tricky in that everything has to come together just right to get the type of outbreak that Jackson is referencing to. We will have to watch this over the weekend.

[jkt21787]

Those maps are off significantly, CAPE peaks to about 1500 j/kg with small area nearing 2000, and LI of -6 to -8, not the ungodly -10 or lower shown above.

Still supportive of severe weather, with some shear included, maybe tornadoes too.

Personally, I'm not honking major outbreak nor strong tornadoes yet, its just too soon and I haven't seen enough personal evidence for it.

Jackson's HWO is probably way off as well. I doubt MS gets off with much if any severe with this event. Timing will be off in addition to capping (which they do mention). Just don't see much happening there. It will need to be watched.

AL/GA have better chances.

[Weatherfreak14]

Looka like Monday Afternoon will have a chance of severe weather for SC also. Maybe worse than couple days ago.

[conestogo_flood]

Day 3 outlook.

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks were gona see the worst outbreak so far in 2006.

[conestogo_flood]

Maybe a rebound year for 2005's tornadoes, or lack there of.

[Skywatch_NC]

Raleigh in the 25% zone!

Eric

[Brent]

Raleigh in the 25% zone!

Eric

I'm in the 35% zone... ON DAY THREE.

[wx247]

That is pretty strong for a day three outlook. We will have to watch this situation closely!

[Skywatch_NC]

Raleigh in the 25% zone!

Eric

I'm in the 35% zone... ON DAY THREE.

YEP! And what a WAY to start out 2006 just a day after New Year's!

2005 ending crazy with fish Zeta and 2006 starting out crazy with a major SVR outbreak potential!

[tomboudreau]

You guys are not along. We sit in between the 15% to 25% bars up in Southwest PA. I have the day off on Monday, might be a good day to sit back and watch the radar returns and see what we get up here.

[Brent]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
101 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2005

ALZ011>015-017>050-011230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
101 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WITH IT...NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AFTER 8 AM
MONDAY UNTIL 3 PM...THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 65.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND PRODUCTS
THROUGH USUAL OUTLETS DURING THIS LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

[Brent]

Birmingham AFD:

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REALLY DON'T REMEMBER A MODERATE RISK IN
THE SOUTHEAST ON SPC'S DAY THREE OUTLOOK IN QUITE SOME TIME. ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. ABOVE THE SURFACE LURKS A BROAD
50 KT 850 JET...AND FAVORABLY LOCATED 500 AND ABOVE JETS.
ADDITIONALLY...PRETTY GOOD DIFLUENCE WILL OCCUR AT THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS. CAPES AT MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE BETWEEN 700 AND 1000 FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 BY
MID MORNING. BOTTOM LINE IT THAT IT WILL BE VERY
UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY JANUARY. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HELICITY IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 85 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
INDICES NEAR 400. AS MORNING APPROACHES WINDS WILL VEER AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEER WILL BECOME LESS SIGNIFICANT...ALTHOUGH PLENTY
OF VERTICAL SHEER WILL REMAIN. THUS EXPECTING TORNADO THREAT TO
DIMINISH A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING. HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LOOK PROBABLE THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. LIKE THE EVENT LAST
WEDNESDAY... THESE STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING. STILL THINK THAT
THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALABAMA EVENT...WITH
MORE TAME THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN ALABAMA. FINALLY...AT THE
CURRENT TIME WE THINK THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH INCREASING THREAT FARTHER SOUTH AS THE
EVENT UNFOLDS. COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. REALLY FEEL
THAT MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE OUT OF THE WOODS BY NOON
MONDAY. AS IF THAT WAS NOT ENOUGH...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SETUP ACROSS ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THUS SOME TYPE OF
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME VERY DANGEROUS VERY QUICKLY...AND THE EARLY MORNING
TIMING IS ALSO A BIG CONCERN. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MONITORED VERY
CLOSELY AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[conestogo_flood]

Could a moderate risk 3 days out prelude a high risk by tomorrow or early Monday ?

[jkt21787]

Could a moderate risk 3 days out prelude a high risk by tomorrow or early Monday ?

I doubt it, unless models change their solutions.

This event doesn't look to be high risk caliber, at least going with data up to this point.

The problem lies with wind profiles. Throughout the day Monday, they are becoming unidirectonal, with directional shear decreasing, as winds fail to back at the surface over time. The shear gets dislocated with the greater instability over Eastern AL and GA.

This indicates that a widespread, damaging tornado event is NOT likely. For high risk events, 20 tornadoes are required with at least 2 F-3, or a major damaging wind event with widespread damage. I am not confident in enough in either occurring at this time, and SPC probably won't be either, certainly at the day 2 period.

We are still far out, so things can change, but the current data at this points moves away from this being a Major tornado outbreak, and more of a general severe weather outbreak.

Deep layer shear still supports supercells, though wind profiles do generally owe to increasing chance of linear segments as Monday wears on. Very cold pocket of air at the mid levels will create very steep lapse rates and aid in strong surface instability, especially for January. This creates a high chance of large hail, some very large (golfball, baseball size quite possible). Damaging winds also likely.

With deep shear still supporting supercells, and at least marginal low level shear in the PBL, the threat of tornadoes still exist. Its just widespread and strong tornadoes are unlikely, though one or two strong tornadoes are certainly possible.

[jhamps10]

this just looks crazy!!!!! Someone pinch me, am I in a nightmare?
This looks like a scary set-up, heck this would be a scary set up if it was in March, let alone for right after New Years!!!!

Makes me kinda worried about storm season up here this year

[Skywatch_NC]

this just looks crazy!!!!! Someone pinch me, am I in a nightmare?
This looks like a scary set-up, heck this would be a scary set up if it was in March, let alone for right after New Years!!!!

Makes me kinda worried about storm season up here this year

But then it seemed crazy, too, to see sw IN get slammed back in November!


WILD weather for SURE!!

[Weatherfreak14]

I live near charleston, sc. I'm in the bullseye right now.