SPC Convective Outlooks

[TexasStooge]

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   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1005 AM CST MON JAN 09 2006
   
   VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE
   LFK 30 NW LFK TYR 30 SW DEQ 35 SW HOT 40 SW PBF 25 NW MLU 40 NE IER
   50 ENE LFK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 45 ESE COT 25 ESE
   ACT 25 SSE DUA 20 SW RKR 40 W CHA 15 NE GAD 15 NE 0A8 40 ENE JAN 20
   NNE HEZ 40 ESE POE 60 S LCH.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF NERN TX...SWRN
   AR AND NRN LA...
   
   ...ARKLATEX...
   
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH SRN CO/NERN NM CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD AND
   MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS IT
   CROSSES OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
   ZONE STRETCHES FROM TN VLY WSWWD ACROSS SRN AR AND THEN THRU THE DFW
   AREA TO SRN NM.  PORTION OF FRONT E OF DFW WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY AS
   A SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS NERN TX IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF
   THE UPPER SYSTEM.
   
   20-25KT LOW LEVEL SSWLY FLOW ACROSS TX AHEAD OF FRONT IS RETURNING A
   MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 60F INLAND
   ACROSS SERN TX/LA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER WITH LAPSE
   RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM HAS SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX AND ALONG WITH
   GOOD SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
   SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
   OVERNIGHT ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING...SURFACE LOW
   NERN TX WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO SRN AR.  LOW LEVEL JET
   WILL RESPOND AND INCREASE TO 30-40KT WHICH COUPLED WITH THE 60-70KT
   MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVING EWD ALG N TX/SRN OK BORDER WILL RESULT IN
   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS.
   
   IT NOW APPEARS LIKE MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP IN WARM
   SECTOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ARKLATEX REGION. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
   SHEAR AND UPWARD MOTION WITH APPROACHING TROUGH THERE IS A
   SUFFICIENT THREAT OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL TO UPGRADE THIS AREA TO A
   SLIGHT RISK.
   
   STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH NUMBER AND INTENSITY
   DURING THE EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
   LATER TONIGHT AS STORMS BECOME PRIMARILY ELEVATED.
   
   ..HALES.. 01/09/2006

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   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE GLS 15 W IER 35
   NE PBF 15 WNW CGI 35 WNW EVV 50 SSW BMG 20 SE SDF 35 WSW LOZ 30 ENE
   CHA 35 E ANB 10 N TOI 25 SE PNS.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
   SEWD INTO THE MS VALLEY TUESDAY BEFORE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE TN
   VALLEY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM...GFS AND
   ECMWF ARE CONSISTENTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION
   OF THIS FEATURE THAN YESTERDAYS RUN AND HENCE SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
   A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM
   THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO OK WILL SETTLE SWD THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
   BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AS THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INDUCES A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY BY
   TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TN VALLEY AREA...
   
   THE GULF WILL UNDERGO SLOW MODIFICATION THROUGH TUESDAY.
   STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS WILL
   HELP ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD. HOWEVER...ERN EXTENT
   AND OVERALL QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES THAT WILL TEND ADVECT
   DRIER AIR NOW RESIDING OVER THE SERN STATES NWWD. AXIS OF BOUNDARY
   LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S MAY ADVECT NWD INTO TN WITH MID 60S
   CLOSER TO THE COAST. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...MODEST MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY. MUCAPE IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG OVER
   PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO UNDER 400 J/KG INTO THE TN VALLEY.
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY OVER THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG
   AND N OF THE WARM FRONT. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND HEIGHT
   FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN THE LINE AS THE
   DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
   POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. THE STRONGER FORCING AND VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
   BECOME DISJOINTED FROM THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MAIN POTENTIAL
   LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT ARE THE EXPECTED
   MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER
   FORCING TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE MOIST AXIS DURING THE DAY.
   THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/09/2006

[TexasStooge]

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   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0642 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006
   
   VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
   HEZ 25 SE IER 45 ENE LFK 35 NNW GGG 15 WNW DEQ 25 WSW RUE 20 NNW BVX
   30 NE JBR 25 E MEM 25 SW GWO 35 NNW HEZ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE BPT 25 NW HOU
   10 WNW CLL 15 SW CRS 25 WSW PRX 10 SW FSM 30 N FAM 20 NNW BMG 40 NNW
   LEX 60 SW LEX 25 NNE HSV 20 WNW SEM 25 N MOB 30 SE ASD 65 S HUM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
   
   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER UT/CO WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING
   THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
   INCREASE FROM EASTERN TX/OK ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  GULF
   MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THIS REGION...WITH 50S DEWPOINTS
   EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL AR SOUTHWARD BY 00Z. 
   
   ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING  FROM WESTERN AR INTO NORTHEAST TX AS
   SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A CAPPING INVERSION THAT MAY INITIALLY
   LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH.  FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND
   RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL
   IN STRONGER CELLS AFTER DARK OVER PARTS OF AR. LINEAR NATURE OF
   STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS
   PARTS OF NORTHERN LA INTO WESTERN MS.

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   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE
   MLB 30 SW SRQ ...CONT... 100 S 7R4 35 ENE JAN 10 ENE BNA 50 ESE BWG
   25 W LOZ 35 S JKL 35 N TRI 25 SW BLF 15 NNE PSK 30 E SSU SHD 45 NE
   CHO 30 WNW NHK 15 SSE NHK 25 SSW WAL 75 ENE ECG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SE GLS 20 E MEM 25
   SE OWB 25 S LUK 10 SE ZZV 15 NE AOO 15 ESE PHL 100 SSE ACY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ONP 40 ENE ACV
   35 NNE UKI 10 ENE SJC 45 ESE MRY 40 SW VBG.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SERN STATES
   THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
   STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE SERN
   STATES FRIDAY. THE SREF MEMBERS SHOW LITTLE DISPERSION OF THE
   500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN OUT TO 48 HOURS. THE ECMWF IS NOW LESS
   AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS MORE IN
   LINE WITH THE GFS. BY EARLY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
   TO BE OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT
   LAKES SWWD THROUGH WRN TN AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS THE UPPER
   TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SEWD...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY
   EAST DURING THE DAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE FRIDAY
   NIGHT.
   
   ...SERN U.S THROUGH CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC AREAS...
   
   CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE
   WRN GULF AND SOUTH TX EXTENDING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NERN GULF.
   A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE
   CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY EAST OF DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE AS
   THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
   THE ADVECTION OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NEWD INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY AND SWRN PARTS OF THE SERN STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY.
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN MORE LIMITED FARTHER NE INTO THE
   SERN STATES DUE TO LESS TIME AVAILABLE FOR ADVECTION TO OCCUR. LOW
   LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER SWRN
   PARTS OF THE SERN STATES TO 50S FARTHER NE. THE EXPECTED MODEST LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL DEVELOP BENEATH -17 TO -19 C AT 500 MB
   AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY HEATING DEVELOPS.
   HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEATING COULD
   BE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE SUBTROPICAL
   JET.
   
   STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG AND JUST
   AHEAD OF FRONT COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. FORCING ACCOMPANYING FALLING
   HEIGHTS AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
   CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. SWLY LOW
   LEVEL JET AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
   AS MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS SEWD INTO BASE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED LINES AS WELL AS SUPERCELLS AS
   ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL 15% SEVERE
   PROBABILITY AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER
   PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ONCE
   UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.

[TexasStooge]

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   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006
   
   VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S
   HUM 25 SE BTR 35 WSW MEI 35 SW 0A8 25 WSW TOI 10 NNE MGR 30 SSW SAV
   15 ESE FLO 30 NW RWI 25 SW ORF 40 ENE HSE ...CONT... 40 ENE SGJ 15 E
   GNV 40 SW PIE.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW
   7R4 25 NW MCB 15 ENE CBM 40 SE BWG 40 WNW SDF 20 ESE IND 20 S DAY 15
   WSW HTS 35 ENE TRI 10 ESE ROA 25 NE HGR 15 ENE ABE 45 ESE NEL
   ...CONT... 45 NNE PBI 35 SW APF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S LCH 20 ENE HEZ
   MEM 45 SW EVV 40 ENE SLO 40 N DNV 25 NNE AZO 20 W MTC 20 NNW YNG 25
   ESE BUF 20 NNE SYR 15 E GFL 25 NE ORH 35 SW ACK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 20 NE AST
   30 E 4BK 45 S RBL 20 NE SCK 45 E MRY 65 WSW PRB.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE LA/SRN AL INTO NRN
   FL/SRN GA...AND FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS TO THE DELMARVA REGION...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS
   INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE FL PENINSULA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SATELLITE...PROFILER AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT STRONG SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE LWR MS VLY SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TODAY
   AS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK NOW OVER NE TX/NW LA CONTINUES E/SE INTO
   THE NRN GULF AND UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE RCKYS. SURFACE LOW
   NOW CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LWR OH VLY SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE E
   ACROSS KY TODAY/TONIGHT...BEFORE REDEVELOPING E OF THE APPALACHIANS
   INTO MD/SRN PA EARLY SATURDAY.
   
   COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM THE LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE E/SE ACROSS THE
   GULF CST STATES/GA AND FL TODAY/TONIGHT...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
   FRONT LIKELY WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY E ACROSS ERN NC/VA AND MD LATER
   IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL
   TROUGH.
   
   ...ERN LA/MS INTO S GA/FL...
   PROPAGATION OF ORIGINAL SQUALL LINE THAT FORMED LAST EVENING IN ERN
   OK/AR HAS CARRIED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SOMEWHAT E OF ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT IN KY/MIDDLE TN...NW AL AND CNTRL MS.  NRN PART OF LINE SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DECELERATE OVER THE OH AND UPR TN VLYS LATER
   THIS MORNING.  SRN PART OF SQUALL LINE...SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN
   STRONG AND MAY SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION SWD INTO THE GULF AS IT
   ACCELERATES E/SE ACROSS SE MS/SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.
   
   RESIDUAL WEDGE AIR MASS OVER NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF AL/GA...AND
   UPLAND SC...SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THOSE
   AREAS AS CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES THROUGH.  FARTHER S...
   HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN EXIT REGION OF
   AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK...50-60 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR AND THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF WARM FRONT
   SEGMENT OVER THE NRN GULF /NEAR MOB/...SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
   SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.  THESE STORMS MAY YIELD HIGH WIND...A COUPLE
   TORNADOES AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE/SPREAD E ACROSS SRN
   AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN/WRN FL LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS
   EVENING.
   
   FARTHER S...MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP AHEAD OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL AND SRN
   FL...WHERE MODERATE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE BENEATH
   STRENGTHENING /40-50 KT/ WLY FLOW ALOFT.
   
   ...ERN CAROLINAS INTO VA/MD/DE/SE PA/NJ...
   CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
   DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY FLOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
   SEABOARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ERN SC/NC RAOBS AND SURFACE DATA
   OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SHOW PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY MOIST AIR OVER
   THE REGION.  THIS AIR SHOULD BE DRAWN NWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINA
   COASTAL PLAIN INTO AT LEAST THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION LATER
   TODAY/TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT AND 50 KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR...SETUP MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE
   BOWS/TORNADOES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
   
   ...OH VLY...
   PRESENCE OF STRONG DPVA DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN UPPER VORT NOW OVER
   CNTRL AR...COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE INFLOW...MAY INITIATE A SECONDARY AREA OF
   STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT IN IND/KY.
   EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED...AND
   UPPER FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACK ALOFT.  THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT
   SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND REGION MAY BE DOWNGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

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   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1154 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W SFO UKI RBL NID
   DAG RAL CZZ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE EWN 45 E RZZ
   RIC DCA BWI ILG 40 ESE NEL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W EYW 35 ENE PBI.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
   PERIOD. INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA OVER ERN PORTIONS KS/OK TO MIDDLE TX COAST
   -- IS FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE CAROLINAS/GA EARLY IN PERIOD AS CLOSED
   MIDLEVEL LOW.  ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
   VA/MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT REGION AT 14/12Z OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC
   COAST EARLY IN PERIOD. STRONG SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP EWD OFF
   MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF
   PERIOD...AND OFFSHORE SERN FL BEFORE 14/18Z.  MEANWHILE STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT OVER NERN PACIFIC FROM
   135W-140W...WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CA.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
   THOUGH PRECURSORY WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ACROSS TIDEWATER/MID ATLANTIC
   STATES SHOULD BE STABLE COMPARED TO BOUNDARY LAYER OVER GULF
   STREAM...ELEVATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH STG
   WAA REGIME THROUGH ABOUT 14/18Z...AND BEFORE LOW LEVEL FROPA.  PRIND
   BUOYANCY WILL BE TOO WEAK NEAR SFC TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE
   THREAT.
   
   ...S FL...
   VARIOUS MODELS -- BOTH OPERATIONAL/DETERMINISTIC SUITES AND SREF
   RUNS -- VARY ON TIMING OF COLD FROPA...BUT CONSENSUS FCST LEAVES
   FRONT ACROSS SRN FL FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY IN PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH
   PREFRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
   TSTMS...COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF DIABATIC
   HEATING AT SFC AND BY WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE
   ASSOCIATED WITH VEERING PREFRONTAL FLOW.  THERFORE ONLY SMALL GEN
   THUNDER AREA IS INCLUDED ATTM.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN CA...
   SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
   WITH BROAD PLUME OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF
   CENTRAL/SRN CA THROUGH PERIOD...IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROUGH.  GIVEN PROGGED 50-60 KT SWLY
   MIDLEVEL JET POSITION SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS AREA DURING DAY...AND
   TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC BACKING/ENHANCEMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN
   CENTRAL VALLEY...POTENTIAL FOR SMALL BOWS OR SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY...WITH RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK TO
   NONEXISTENT SFC-BASED BUOYANCY LIKELY CHARACTERIZING MUCH OF AIR
   MASS UNDER AND JUST BEHIND MAIN PRECIP AREA.  MESOSCALE AND SMALLER
   ENHANCEMENTS TO HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR MAY OCCUR...BUT IT
   IS TOO SOON TO RESOLVE AND PINPOINT SUCH EFFECTS ON THIS FORECAST
   TIME SCALE.

[TexasStooge]

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   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0657 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006
   
   VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE
   CRP ALI 20 ESE SAT 25 ESE ACT 40 NW SHV 15 S LLQ 40 SW MEM 45 SSE
   MKL 50 ENE CBM 20 SE MEI 60 SE GPT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 30 E TCS 45
   ESE 4CR 45 WSW LBB 35 S MAF 60 N DRT 55 WNW AUS 15 SSW FTW 40 W HOT
   15 NNW POF 40 NW EVV 30 NNW LUK 50 E LUK 30 SW HTS 25 E LOZ 10 W CHA
   15 SSW BHM 50 SW SEM 45 SE PNS.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX INTO THE LWR MS
   VLY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING AZ/NM SHOULD FURTHER AMPLIFY
   THIS PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES E TO THE ERN PLNS AND PHASES WITH NRN
   STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING SE FROM ALBERTA.  AT LOWER LEVELS...
   COLD FRONT NOW STRENGTHENING OVER NW OK/KS AND THE LWR MO VLY SHOULD
   ACCELERATE SEWD TODAY...REACHING A STL/FSM/DAL LINE BY EARLY
   EVENING.  THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE
   IN TX...AND SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE INTO CNTRL KY/NW AL AND SE LA BY
   12Z TUESDAY.
   
   ...E TX INTO LWR MS VLY...
   SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER E/SE TX AND THE WRN GULF TODAY
   INTO TONIGHT...ENHANCING MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
   COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH.  BUT LATEST SURFACE DATA AND LOW CLOUD
   PATTERNS IN SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT QUALITY OF MOISTURE WILL
   REMAIN RATHER MODEST...WITH AT BEST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD
   INTO E TX/LA AND SRN MS/AL.
   
   PRESENCE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LIKELY
   WILL PROHIBIT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER TX AND LA UNTIL
   LATE AFTERNOON.  PRIOR TO THAT TIME...EXPECT THAT BAND OF ELEVATED
   CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND DEPTH...AND EVENTUALLY YIELD THUNDER AS LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  THE WRN AND SRN
   PORTIONS OF THE BAND SHOULD BECOME NEARLY SURFACE-BASED AS HEIGHT
   FALLS AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING/MOISTURE INFLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZE
   REGION.
   
   WITH 500 MB SWLY FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO AOA 80 KTS...AMPLE
   CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN
   LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER FLOW...EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
   EVOLUTION...AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FORCING /FRONT AND
   TROUGH/...MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE QUASI-LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED
   LOW AMPLITUDE LEWPS/BOWS.
   
   WHILE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODEST AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY BE
   SLOW TO EVOLVE OUT OF MORE BENIGN ACTIVITY...STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND
   LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
   TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.  FARTHER E...LOW
   LEVEL CONFLUENCE MAY PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO POTENTIALLY
   TORNADIC STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND.
   
   EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD ALLOW SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
   FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES...TO REACH SE LA...SRN/ CNTRL MS AND
   PERHAPS WRN AL BY 12Z TUESDAY. A MORE LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE
   WILL EXTEND N INTO TN.

Code: Select all

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE
   HUM MSY 50 ESE GWO 35 SW MSL ANB 35 E CSG MGR 50 SSW CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW 7R4 BMG MIE FDY
   CLE BFD MSV 25 SE ACK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HQM 25 NE ONP
   35 SE OTH MHS RBL UKI 65 WNW UKI.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS AL...SERN LA...ERN
   MS...SWRN GA...FL PANHANDLE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DAY-2 PERIOD WILL FEATURE CONTINUATION OF PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY
   AMPLIFIED PATTERN.  SRN STREAM PERTURBATION -- MOST INTENSE PORTION
   OF WHICH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER AZ -- IS FCST
   TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN MEX AND SW TX DAY-1 BEFORE FULLY PHASING
   WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM PRESENT POSITION OVER NRN
   ROCKIES/CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS.  RESULTANT TROUGH THEN WILL
   ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD SRN
   APPALACHIANS THROUGH DAY-2...WITH SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT.
   OPERATIONAL/DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
   REASONABLY STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING STRONG CONFIDENCE TO MODEL
   CONSENSUS WITH THIS SCENARIO.
   
   AT SFC...COLD FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS NOW UNDERWAY OVER CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS WILL EXPAND AND SWEEP EWD/SEWD. RESULTANT SHARPLY DEFINED
   COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY TO NEAR MIT ATLANTIC
   COAST AND SERN FL BY END OF PERIOD.
   
   ...ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO NRN AL...
   LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD
    OVER PORTIONS MS/AL/SERN LA...REF SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR MORE
   DETAILS.  DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE
   POSSIBLE...AND AT LEAST MRGL TORNADO POTENTIAL MIGHT DEVELOP OVER
   SRN PORTION OUTLOOK AREA NEAR COAST...WHERE POTENTIAL IS LARGEST FOR
   SFC-BASED BUOYANCY.  AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD OVER AL/GA AND FL
   PANHANDLE DURING DAY...SEVERAL OFFSETTING FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO
   MERIT ONLY SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE.  INTENSE FRONTAL FORCING IS
   EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS
   THIS AREA -- PERHAPS WITH SOME CONTINUITY INTO LATE-PERIOD REGIME
   DESCRIBED IN NEXT SECTION.  STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS
   EXPECTED...WITH MEAN FLOW PARALLEL TO SLIGHTLY EWD OF FRONTAL
   ORIENTATION.  HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW AIR MASS SHOULD BE LESS BUOYANT
   BOTH WITH EWD AND INLAND EXTENTS...GIVEN RATE OF MARINE MODIFICATION
   UNDERWAY ATTM OVER GULF.  ALSO...AS FORCING BAND SHIFTS EWD INTO GA
   AND NRN FL...INFLOW LAYER TRAJECTORIES WILL EMANATE FROM RELATIVELY
   LOW THETAE AIR MASS OVER FL.
   
   ...ERN GA TO DELMARVA/TIDEWATER...
   VERY STRONG FRONTAL FORCING IS PROGGED OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS
   MAY SUPPORT NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER...IN
   ENVIRONMENT OF NEUTRALLY TO MARGINALLY BUOYANT INFLOW.
   STRONG SLY FLOW COMPONENT IS FCST IN PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
   THIS INDICATES THAT ANY NEARLY SFC-BASED INFLOW FOR PRIMARY
   CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE BAND WILL NEED TO EMANATE FROM ATLANTIC
   GULF-STREAM TRAJECTORIES...RATHER THAN MORE ROBUSTLY MODIFIED GULF
   OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER.  SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AIR MASS
   MODIFICATION IS IN SIMILAR STATE ATTM AS OVER WRN GULF 24 HOURS
   AGO...WITH SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 20 DEG BELOW OPEN-OCEAN EQUILIBRIUM
   VALUES...AND OFFSHORE FLOW STILL OCCURRING UPSTREAM.  RAPID EWD
   MOTION OF FRONTAL ZONE COMPARED TO RATE OF FCST AIR MASS RECOVERY
   SUGGESTS ONLY NARROW AND LATE-ARRIVING PLUME OF FAVORABLE AIR MAY
   DEVELOP...WITH CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ABOUT MUCH INLAND PENETRATION NEAR
   SFC.  THEREFORE...WHILE DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   YET...MARGINAL...CONDITIONAL AND LATE-PERIOD NATURE OF POTENTIAL
   PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.
   
   ...PENINSULAR FL...
   SQUALL LINE SHOULD BUILD TO SEVERE LEVELS OVER OPEN ERN GULF...INVOF
   LOOP CURRENT...WHERE AIR-SEA HEAT FLUXES OPTIMIZE INFLOW LAYER
   THETAE.  BY THE TIME THIS ACTIVITY REACHES LAND...COOLER SHELF
   WATERS AND EVEN COOLER NOCTURNAL LAND MASS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY.
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT AND DISTANCE FROM
   MID/UPPER TROUGH.  ACCORDINGLY...W COAST AND PERHAPS KEYS MAY BE
   PREFERRED CORRIDOR FOR ANY LINGERING SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT IT IS
   TOO SOON TO SPLIT ALREADY MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ON THE
   MESOSCALE ACROSS PENINSULA.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0656 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006
   
   VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE
   HUM 10 SSE GPT 10 WSW 0A8 20 NE BHM 30 SSW RMG 10 ENE LGC 10 W ABY
   45 SSW VLD 50 SW CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE BPT 50 NE JAN
   10 S BWG 35 NW HTS 15 W BLF 40 SE PSK 40 WSW DCA 10 NNE CXY 25 NNE
   MSV 20 SSW BDL 45 ESE ISP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BLI 15 ENE SEA
   35 ENE AST 10 NNE SLE 20 SSW RDM 50 NNW LKV 40 SSE LMT 40 WSW EKA.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN GULF CST REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE TODAY
   AS IT CONTINUES E INTO THE MS VLY.  IT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NE
   AND ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO
   THE ROCKIES.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY ACCELERATE
   SOMEWHAT AS IT CROSSES GA AND THE CAROLINAS...BUT THE FEATURE WILL
   PROBABLY REMAIN ANA IN NATURE AS UPPER FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE
   EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM.
   
   IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL AND THE DEEP FLOW
   SHOULD BECOME MORE CYCLONIC TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER VORTS
   NOW NEAR 41N/135W AND 44N/143W REACH THE COAST.
   
   ...ERN GULF COAST...
   EXPECT THAT WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY IN ZONE OF CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COAST REGION.  GULF OF
   MEXICO BUOY DATA AND STRATOCU CLOUD FIELD IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH
   SUGGEST...HOWEVER...THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN MODEST...WITH
   MAXIMUM SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED OVER SRN MS/SRN
   AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.  RECOVERY MAY EVEN BE MORE LIMITED IN GA/N
   FL...WHERE OVERLAND INFLOW WILL PREVAIL.
   
   MODEST DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE ERN GULF REGION.  BUT AS
   AREA VWP DATA SHOW /0-1 KM SRH CURRENTLY GREATER THAN 400 MS/S2 AT
   KMOB/...KINEMATIC FIELD LIKELY WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR LOW
   LEVEL STORM ROTATION SHOULD DEEP/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS DEVELOP.
   THUS...LOW CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES FOR A TORNADO OR TWO ARE
   DEPICTED FOR THE REGION.
   
   FARTHER W...WEAK INSTABILITY AND ANA NATURE OF FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP
   SEVERE THREAT LIMITED WITH NARROW LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION ALONG
   COLD FRONT...DESPITE PRESENCE OF 80+ KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR.
   NEVERTHELESS...ENHANCEMENT OF STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD INVOF OF
   CONVECTIVE BAND MAY YIELD DAMAGING...LIKELY NON-THUNDER...WIND GUSTS
   AS THE ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
   
   ...ERN CAROLINAS/SE VA...
   SOME INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR DURING
   THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE PERIOD OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AND
   TIDEWATER VA...WHERE MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
   SIMILARLY OCCUR...THIS TIME OFF THE WRN ATLANTIC.  AS OVER THE ERN
   GULF COAST...KINEMATIC FIELD LIKELY WILL BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO BOTH
   LOW AND MID LEVEL STORM ROTATION AS MID LEVEL SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
   TO AOA 90 KTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT STRONG POLAR INTRUSION...AND
   MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED BY OFFSHORE OBSERVATIONS...LIKELIHOOD
   FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY
   APPEARS REMOTE.

Code: Select all

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1218 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE EWN 20 WNW ECG
   NHK 25 ENE BWI ABE 35 SSE MSV 25 NE BDR 35 ESE BID.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
   GREAT LAKES SEWD AND SWD THRU THE OH AND TN VALLEY INTO THE NERN
   GULF OF MEXICO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL
   MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY HALF OF
   THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL LEAVE SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
   U.S. AS WEAK SOMEWHAT BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF
   THE WRN U.S.
   
   STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY ERN U.S. TROUGH WITH A WELL DEFINED
   BAROCLINIC ZONE.  SHARPNESS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO LEAD
   TO STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES AND SPEED SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
   
   ...COASTAL AREAS FROM VA INTO LONG ISLAND...
   
   EXAMINATION OF 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES STRONG SHEAR
   PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. IN
   ADDITION...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER RUNNING AROUND 5.5-6.0C/KM
   ...THEY DO ALSO SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE WHERE VALUES GET TO BETWEEN
   100 AND 300 J/KG USING MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS.  THUS...SOME ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE PERIOD
   AND COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONTAL PASSAGE.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0623 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006
   
   VALID 281300Z - 291200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE
   PSX SAT 50 ENE JCT 35 ENE SPS 30 WNW CQB 35 NE CNU 15 NNE SGF 15 WNW
   ARG 20 ENE MEM 15 NNE CBM 15 SW MOB 70 SE BVE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE BLI 25 W DLS
   10 S MFR 50 WNW ACV.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW 6R6 MAF 60 SSE
   CDS 15 ESE GAG 30 E DDC EAR SLB 30 SW ALO CGX FWA LEX CSV ATL CSG 15
   SSW PFN 50 SSW PFN.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   
   ...SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY....
   TROUGH CENTRAL/SRN HI PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY
   TILTED BY TONIGHT AS IT ROTATES ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. WIND FIELDS
   AT ALL LEVELS WILL RAMP UP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
   INTENSIFIES AND THE SURFACE LOW NOW WRN KS MOVES EWD AND DEEPENS
   OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY.
   
   CURRENT LARGE AREA OF NON-SEVERE CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM MO SWWD
   TO CENTRAL TX SUPPORTED BY A WARM CONVEYER AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AS
   A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET MAX ROTATES EWD ACROSS SRN TX TO LOWER MS
   VALLEY BY TONIGHT.
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON ABILITY OF THE
   AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING
   CONVECTION AS WIND SHEAR PROFILES AND KINEMATICS WILL BE MORE THAN
   ADEQUATE.  GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS TX INTO OK
   THIS AM WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 60F AS FAR N AS THE RED RIVER
   NERN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND MID/UPPER 50S ERN OK.
   
   AS AREA ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES EWD...THERE WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT TIME FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS ERN HALF OF
   TX NWD INTO OK TO ALLOW MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
   STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON WEST EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DRY LINE BY
   MID/LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS OK/NRN TX.
   WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED ADEQUATE
   INSTABILITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON VICINITY I35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK INTO NRN TX. WHILE
   PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL THE 30KT OF SFC-1KM SHEAR AND
   FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS WITH HELICITIES 250-350 M2/S2 SHOULD LEAD TO
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT OF ANY SUPERCELL TORNADOES
   WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
   WILL BE AVAILABLE.
   
   OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND INTENSIFIES
   VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES DEVELOP WITH 850MB JET INCREASING TO
   60-70KT OVER LWR MS AND WRN TN VALLEY. COUPLED WITH STRONG AND
   DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER JET A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
   LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
   MEAGER AT THE SAME TIME THE GREATEST DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM IS
   OCCURRING.  THUS SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MUCH OF NIGHT
   BUT GRADUALLY TRANSITION PRIMARILY INTO A DAMAGING WIND CONCERN.
   ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO WRN MS DURING THE
   NIGHT WHERE SOME INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE
   VIGOROUS WIND FIELDS.

Code: Select all

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2006
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S 7R4 15 W PIB 20
   NE MEI 30 E CBM 20 WSW MSL 10 WNW MKL 30 NE JBR 50 NE UNO 30 E COU
   30 NNW UIN 15 SW MLI 20 SSW RFD 25 NNW BEH FNT 60 E MTC 15 E FKL 10
   ENE LBE 20 NE EKN 15 WSW BKW 40 NW TRI 25 N TYS 45 SSE TYS 15 NNE
   AND 30 N CAE 20 WSW FAY 40 ENE RWI 55 E ORF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E DAB 45 SW SRQ.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...CENTRL/ERN GULF COAST...
   
   IMPRESSIVE SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE TN VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
   STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...ROUGHLY 150M IN 12HR...WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM
   AS SPEED MAX LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION LATE.  STRONGEST
   KINEMATIC RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR WELL NORTH OF ANY
   MEANINGFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WHICH WILL BE
   CONFINED TO THAT REGION FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE FL
   PANHANDLE.  AS A RESULT...TRAILING COLD FRONT AND WEAKENING WARM
   ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROVE THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION
   FROM SRN AL INTO GA/NRN FL.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVEL
   AIRMASS...LOWEST 1-3KM/MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL
   EXIST NEAR THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE NIGHT
   ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN SQUALL LINE.  ALTHOUGH
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...IT
   APPEARS STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL HOWEVER SUPPORT AT LEAST
   LOW PROBABILITIES FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS A
   TORNADO.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS
   INCREASINGLY HOSTILE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVER SERN GA/NERN FL
   PENINSULA.