This drought in North Texas is depressing

[TexasStooge]

Drought may last into summer

If April doesn't bring showers, forecaster says, 'things could get ugly'

By ROY APPLETON / The Dallas Morning News

Had enough of these dry times? They well could be around into summer, weather forecasters say.

Rain may fall here and there, now and then, perhaps as soon as Sunday night in the Dallas area. But the parched region needs 20 to 25 inches of precipitation in the next six months to end drought conditions 10 months in the making, the National Weather Service says.

And with no major weather changes on the horizon, forecasters predict the heat will continue to wither vegetation, dry lakes and leave cattle raisers struggling to get by.

"Unfortunately, there's a threat we could stay dry through May or June. That's the significance of this thing," said Victor Murphy, a weather service climatologist in Fort Worth.

Spring normally would be the time to replenish soil and lakes. On average, almost 15 inches of rain (42 percent of the annual total) falls at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport from March through June.

"April and May are going to be very critical around here," Mr. Murphy said. "If we continue to see below average rainfall, things could get ugly."

Ed O'Lenic, a meteorologist with the federal Climate Prediction Center, and other scientists say the rains basically stopped in April across North Texas and beyond in large part because the atmosphere didn't get its usual influx of storm-triggering air: the tropical jet stream.

"The atmosphere is choosing to do things for reasons we don't understand," Mr. O'Lenic said.

For whatever reason, high-pressure systems established barriers of air over the Southwest that kept the moisture-rich jet stream from the Pacific Ocean flowing north of the region.

And what put those systems in place? "Honestly, I don't have a silver-bullet answer," said Mr. Murphy, southern regional manager of the weather service's climate service program.

The weather service is predicting above average temperatures and a continuing, if not intensifying, drought over much of North Texas and the panhandle through March, with some improvement across the state's southern and southeastern regions. Forecasters also expect the dry conditions to spread across portions of West Texas, New Mexico and Arizona.

In what could prolong the trend, La Niña conditions are developing in the Pacific Ocean. Marked by unusually cold sea-surface temperatures, the phenomenon typically weakens the tropical jet stream, meaning drier-than-normal weather for the Southwest.

Although La Niña is relatively weak, it could keep Texas mostly dry for the next three to six months, Mr. Murphy said. "It's like adding insult to injury."

Yet La Niña is only "one possible suspect," said Mr. O'Lenic, who added that random events in the atmosphere could be driving North Texas weather these days.

D/FW Airport recorded 18.97 inches of precipitation last year, trailing the annual norm by more than 15 inches. Long gone is the 47.57 inches recorded in 2004, the fourth-wettest year on record.

A "rogue weather system" or another remnant tropical storm like that following Hurricane Rita could help North Texas out of its rain deficit, Mr. Murphy said.

But the return of a persistent rain-fueling jet stream over Texas first would require a breakup of La Niña, he said – whenever and however that might occur.

In the meantime, Dallas water officials are considering requesting voluntary cutbacks months ahead of schedule. And the North Texas Municipal Water District, which serves 61 cities mostly in Collin, Dallas and Rockwall counties, this week moved to Stage 2 of its drought contingency plan, asking customers to reduce water use by 2 percent.

Ron Gill, a Texas A&M University extension livestock specialist, said the drought has been particularly tough in hay-producing areas, where some cattle raisers are paying double the normal price for bales and are beginning to cull their herds.

"Everybody was hoping they could get to spring," said Dr. Gill, who works with ranchers in 65 North and East Texas counties.

"If it stays like it is right now, a lot of them will be out of water long before June," he said. "Many of them will be forced to liquidate a large part of their herds."

[mike815]

that is just terrible unfortunitly looks like things will indeed get ugly.

[gboudx]

I read that in the paper this morning. Sounds like the NWS isn't sure why the atmosphere is behaving this way, and it also sounds like they aren't very optimistic our situation will improve before the spiggot would normally shutoff in July. Lake Ray Hubbard is already low; lots of tree tops have surfaced. I've seen it lower, but I fear the worst is yet to come.