Big Santa Ana event on tap for SoCal Tonight-Mon

[wxmann_91]

Suddenly a huge gust of wind shakes the house and causes the palm trees in my yard to go crazy. So I suddenly realize that this boring period of weather across the country (and finals coming up next week) have made me not check the local AFD's. So here is what I find:

1. RED FLAG WARNINGS UP ACROSS SOCAL WITH EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA FIRE DANGER DAY2 SPC FIREWX OUTLOOK.

2. (WFO LA/Oxnard AFD)

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE STRONG SANTA
ANA WINDS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKED SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY...BRINGING A FEW CLOUDS AND SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED NEAR SAN DIEGO. AS
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. IN FACT...CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING A MARKED INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT (40
TO 55 KNOT BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB) AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH A LARGE
LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THERMAL GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
THIS ALL ADDS UP TO A MAJOR SANTA ANA WIND EVENT FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. WHILE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN
EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...FOCUSED ON LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT...THERE
WILL BE THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75
MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. EVEN
PASSES AND CANYONS IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH...AND THESE AREAS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A HIGH
WIND WARNING.

WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S. UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT BEGINS
TO WEAKEN SOME BY TUESDAY AND WE MAY NEED TO DOWNGRADE WARNINGS TO
ADVISORIES AT THAT TIME.

ON WED GRADIENTS START TO TURN ONSHORE AS THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR THIS WIND FINALLY MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. LOOK FOR COASTAL TEMPS TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES WED
AFTERNOON WITH SMALLER DECREASES THE FURTHER INLAND YOU GO.


(WFO SD AFD)

WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR PT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALREADY SURFACED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT ONT AND 50 MPH AT FREMONT CANYON.
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND PEAK ON MONDAY
WHEN STRONG WINDS ALOFT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CAA...AND VERY
STRONG OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONVERGE OVER SOCAL. CURRENT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE 10 MB FROM SAN-TPH AND WILL REACH CLOSE TO
17 MB OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A DAMAGING WIND EVENT. THE 18Z ETA 12
MODEL IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN PROJECTING DOWNWARD VV
BTWN 40AND 50 MICROBARS/S MONDAY MORNING...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE GET REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH
MONDAY MORNING AS THEY FUNNEL THROUGH THE CAJON PASS INTO THE
INLAND EMPIRE. OTHER AREAS FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS INCLUDE
THE SANTA ANA MTNS...THE BANNING PASS...AND THE EAST-WEST MOUNTAIN
PASSES OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT ORANGE
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND THE SAN DIEGO INLAND VALLEYS WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY.
THE CAA WONT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE WEAKER. BUT WITH A 1040 MB HIGH OVER UTAH THE OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR EITHER LOW END
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA OR HIGH END WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
AZ...THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVER CO AND WEAKENS...AND THAT WILL
MARK THE END OF THIS SANTA ANA EVENT.

[weatherlover427]

Not to bump an old thread up, but it sure was windy here the past couple of days. I had a few shingles off my roof as well as some small tree branches and other assorted things down on the ground in the neighborhood. I think this was one of the stronger Santa Anas we have had in a while.

[wxmann_91]

Not to bump an old thread up, but it sure was windy here the past couple of days. I had a few shingles off my roof as well as some small tree branches and other assorted things down on the ground in the neighborhood. I think this was one of the stronger Santa Anas we have had in a while.

This is not an old thread lol. But you are correct, it has been windy, though I was expecting more since that the strongest wording I've ever seen from SGX before a Santa Ana event.