Possible Severe weather Thursday for Midwest.

[jhamps10]

SPC currently has a slight risk area from near branson through st louis, to just east of chicago. Covers eastern 1/2 of Missouri, Southern 3/4 of Illinois, and most of Indiana, parts of Kentucky, and a small part of Arkansas and Tenessee.

High winds appear to be main threat, with possiblity for isolated torandoes from east central Missouri eastward to west central indiana, covering such cities as St louis, Effingham IL, Springfield-Decatur-Champaign IL, Mount Vernon IL, Terre-Haute IN, Bloomington, IN.

Right now SPC only has 15% chance.


Feel free to discuss this.

[jhamps10]

from NWS lincoln-
Severe Weather Possible on Thursday
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has indicated the possibility of severe thunderstorms across much of central and southeast Illinois on Thursday, February 16th. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon hours, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds. To access the latest forecasts from the SPC, visit their homepage at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

A frontal boundary, which stretched across central Illinois Wednesday afternoon, will lift northward as low pressure develops across the southern Plains. Southerly winds ahead of the low will pump warmer and increasingly moist air into the region on Thursday, resulting in afternoon high temperatures climbing well into the 50s. The low will track from near Quincy around midday, to southern Lake Michigan by early evening, dragging a strong cold front across central Illinois. A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of this front, with the capability of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. However, a few embedded supercells will also be possible, potentially producing isolated tornadoes. Any storms that develop will be fast-moving in nature, probably between 45 and 55 mph. The storm threat will rapidly end from west to east across the area during the early evening hours.

THREAT: damaging wind gusts, large hail, isolated tornadoes

PRIMARY LOCATIONS/TIMES:
along and west of the Illinois River: noon to 3PM
along the I-55 corridor: 2 to 5 PM
along the I-57 corridor: 4 to 7 PM
east of I-57: 5 to 8 PM

From NWS Paducah
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE AREA AFTER 2 PM...AND THEN
RACE EAST NORTHEASTWARD AT 50 MPH OR GREATER.

WIND FIELDS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...BUT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUESTIONABLE. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST
KENTUCKY.

SOUTH WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED UP TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY WEAKEN A LITTLE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH POSSIBLE.

[Weatherfreak14]

Just Asking but Could Evansville, In be in the path for dangerous storms. I have family there and They ALMOST got hit by the twister in Nov.

[jhamps10]

yes Evansville could be in danger of storms, and is in an area that could be in a slight torando risk for tomorrow.

I'd call your folks in Evansville just to let them know, but I know for a fact from living 55 miles from evansville growing up that the media there really takes ANY severe weather threat seriously... espically this time of year.

[wxmann_91]

I'm waiting for WaitingForSiren's opinion. He is pretty good at recognizing patterns very early, and also near-term forecasting, evident in the last event for the Gulf Coast and as well the arctic blash progged to arrive after the svr. SPC has already a SLGT risk with enhanced wording of possible "strong tornadoes". And of course once again the dynamics will be more than sufficient but instability a problem.

[conestogo_flood]

10% tornadoes on the map. What does that mean? Is there no more 15% tornadoes?

[Stormy1]

Does anyone have any updated opinions or observations regarding the possible severe weather in Indiana this evening?

At this time, NWS is saying that spotters will likely be needed and I need to start making some decisions regarding a skating party that I'm supposed to be chaperoning. Last word from the local mets is that the line of storms should not be in the Indpls area till around 8pm and that's cutting it really close for me.

[jhamps10]

well, at this time the front is currently stalled out along a line from Columbia, MO to just south of Springfield. Currently in St louis where I am, the skys are cloudy, and it feels like mid april right now. the local mets here are thinking that the storms could be developing just west of St. Louis around 4PM CT. (5 PM in indy). of course it all depends on how fast they are moving, but I would say that the storms could be in Indy at around 9 or 10 PM Indiana time.

So the way it looks right now, you should be good for your skating party tonight. but keep eye to the sky, weather radio's, and since your a spotter, keep an eye on Ham radio late this afternoon.

[jhamps10]

That comes from SPC MD discussions 148 & 149. First watches to come from line of Central IL-Southern Missouri. Another watch likely to be issued for Western Arkansas/Eastern Okalahoma.

Cells are developing in Central-NE Missouri and are strengthing.

Stay Tuned....

[jhamps10]

Change that Torando Watch HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR Missouri, Illinois

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 33
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

TORNADO WATCH 33 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MOC017-023-031-035-043-055-065-067-071-073-091-093-099-105-113-
123-125-149-151-153-157-161-169-179-181-183-186-187-189-203-207-
213-215-219-221-223-225-229-510-170200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0033.060216T1915Z-060217T0200Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD
DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GASCONADE HOWELL IRON
JEFFERSON LACLEDE LINCOLN
MADISON MARIES OREGON
OSAGE OZARK PERRY
PHELPS PULASKI REYNOLDS
RIPLEY SHANNON ST. CHARLES
ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS STE. GENEVIEVE
STODDARD TANEY TEXAS
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
WEBSTER WRIGHT


MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 33
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

TORNADO WATCH 33 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ILC005-013-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-039-041-045-047-049-
051-053-055-061-065-075-077-079-081-083-091-101-105-107-113-115-
117-119-121-129-133-135-137-139-145-147-157-159-163-167-171-173-
181-183-185-189-191-199-170200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0033.060216T1915Z-060217T0200Z/

IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOND CALHOUN CHAMPAIGN
CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY
CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD
CUMBERLAND DE WITT DOUGLAS
EDGAR EDWARDS EFFINGHAM
FAYETTE FORD FRANKLIN
GREENE HAMILTON IROQUOIS
JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON
JERSEY KANKAKEE LAWRENCE
LIVINGSTON LOGAN MACON
MACOUPIN MADISON MARION
MCLEAN MENARD MONROE
MONTGOMERY MORGAN MOULTRIE
PERRY PIATT RANDOLPH
RICHLAND SANGAMON SCOTT
SHELBY ST. CLAIR UNION
VERMILION WABASH WASHINGTON
WAYNE WILLIAMSON



ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...PAH...LOT...ILX...

[isobar]

Convection is really showing up well on vis sat.

[jhamps10]

Severe Thunderstorm WARNING for Gasconade, Franklin, and Warren Counties in MO till 2:30 PM!!!!


Storms are en route to Metro St. Louis, I am actually hearing a little bit of distant thunder every once and a while. It's sunny right now, but looking to the SW of my 3rd floor apartment, it's black as could be...bad news for me.

[isobar]

And new Tornado Watch issued, as we speak:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 34
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF FLIPPIN
ARKANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 33...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT NWRN CORNER AR SWWD TO OK/TX BORDER. AIR MASS HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHICH COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES
WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SHORT LINES/BOWS AND ISOLATED
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

[jhamps10]

New Warnings for Lincoln County, MO, Calhoun County, IL Greene &Jersey counties in IL ALL till 2:45 PM!!!! Estmates that storms could be in metro St. Louis by 3 PM!!!!!


These Storms look REALLY nasty on doppler Radar!!!! Could be developing Supercell like hook echo in western Franklin County.

[isobar]

Wow, jhamps, look at that red snake. There's a cell that broke off and is looking more cellular about to enter Warren County. These guys mean business booking at 55-60 mph.

[jhamps10]

Wow, jhamps, look at that red snake. There's a cell that broke off and is looking more cellular about to enter Warren County. These guys mean business booking at 55-60 mph.

Yeah they mean business, heading Straight for my apartment. Good thing that Nascar is in rain delay right now. I can focus ALL of my attention to these nasty storms!!!

[jhamps10]

yeah this storm is looking bad

Western Parts of the St. Louis metro area just put under a warning,
St. Charles county, MO till 3 PM!!! Looks like I'm the next stop after that... I'll be first in st. louis county to experience this storm too.

[jhamps10]

WOW, It's gonna get REALLY Cold in 1.5 hours, Right now at St. louis it is 70*... In Columbia, MO just 95 Miles west of me, it's 34!!!!!!!!!!!

[jhamps10]

severe storms too just south of Springfield, MO. Christian County, MO until 3

[isobar]

Hope it's not too bad. Post a report if you can. Facing SW from a 3rd fl window, you should have an awesome view.