Here we go again in the West

[weatherlover427]

Yet another big storm system is headed our way. This one looks to be a doozy. Several inches of rain at lower elevations, along with gusty winds. Thunderstorms possible as well.

The mountains may see upwards of 2 feet of snow. We'll take it, we are still 4 inches+ behind here since July 1st.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 1000 PM PST SAT APR 1 2006

ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS - SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS - SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS - THE INLAND EMPIRE - SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS - SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS - RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS - SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS - SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS - APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS - COACHELLA VALLEY - SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS - 1000 PM PST SAT APR 1 2006

- STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY..

A STRONG AND BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BRING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR PERIODS OF RAIN - MAINLY ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN - AND A CHANCE OF HAIL - THUNDERSTORMS - WATERSPOUTS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS - MAINLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT PREDICTIONS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND VALLEYS AND TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATER IN THE NORTH VERSUS THE SOUTH. ON THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY - RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN SIX INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE DESERTS - ESPECIALLY THE HIGH DESERTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT HIGH - ABOVE 7000 FEET AND LOWER LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO BELOW 5000 FEET.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT A TIME OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS AND WASHES. RECENTLY BURNED AREAS WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING FROM MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS.

ALSO - STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE DECREASING LATE WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND AT LEAST BREEZY ELSEWHERE AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD.

ANYONE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PLANNING TRAVEL THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN AREAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING STRONG STORM. HIKERS OR CAMPERS IN REMOTE AREAS SHOULD STAY INFORMED OF THIS DEVELOPING STORM AND LISTEN FOR STATEMENTS - ADVISORIES - AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MAXWELL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 410 PM PST SAT APR 1 2006

ANTELOPE VALLEY - CATALINA ISLAND - CUYAMA VALLEY - LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES - LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE - LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS - SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST - SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS - SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS - SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST - SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS - SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST - SANTA CLARITA VALLEY - SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA - SANTA YNEZ VALLEY - VENTURA COUNTY COAST - VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS - VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS - VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS - 410 PM PST SAT APR 1 2006

- A STRONG SPRING STORM LIKELY TO AFFECT AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY..

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA AND EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY OVER OUR AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THAT IS CURRENTLY LINGERING IN THE SUBTROPICS NEAR HAWAII. WITH SUCH A PLUME OF MOISTURE HEADING TOWARD SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA - EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PEAK OF THE STORM APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING - WITH POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES - ESPECIALLY ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. HOWEVER - THERE WILL BE SEVERAL BANDS OF RAIN THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED THE THRESHOLDS DEVELOPED BY THE USGS FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE FORM OF MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS TO OCCUR IN AND NEAR THE MORE RECENT BURN AREAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS APPEAR LIKELY - WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES. THESE TOTALS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STRONG AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. RESIDENTS IN AND AROUND THE BURN AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY - AS FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE POSTED AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER - CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE TRACK WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. GUSTY WINDS - SMALL HAIL - WATERSPOUTS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS COULD FORM FROM ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS - ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET AT THE ONSET OF THIS STORM ON MONDAY - BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 4500 AND 5500 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - SNOW LEVELS MAY FALL TO 4000 FEET WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS AT THE SKI RESORTS AS WELL AS MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS INTERSTATE 5 NEAR THE GRAPEVINE ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL POTENTIAL - MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE POWERFUL WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT - A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE POSTED. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS - GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY REQUIRE WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA - ESPECIALLY THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AS THE STORM DEVELOPS.

MOYER

[HurricaneHunter914]

Thank god, for a minute there I thought it was another April Fools joke.

[wxmann_91]

I absolutely love NWS Oxnard's Discos:

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 AM PDT SUN APR 2 2006

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
POWERFUL 523DM UPPER LOW 400 NM WEST OF SEATTLE WITH A COLD FRONT
WRAPPED AROUND IT AND EXTENDING FAR OUT INTO THE PACIFIC. THE LOW
WILL PINWHEEL SOUTHWARD ARRIVING JUST OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO KEEPS A MOIST SW FLOW OVER SO CAL
FROM THIS EVENING TO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOCAL
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONSOLIDATE AND ENTRAIN A NICE BATCH OF +1
INCH PRECIP WATERS. THIS WILL CREATE STEADY RAIN OVER THE AREA
STARTING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING AND SPREADING TO L.A.
COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS THE SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE RAIN WILL
INCREASE ESP OVER THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES. THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE A 3 TO 4 HOUR BURST
OF MDT TO HVY RAIN. HOWEVER IT IS REALLY NOT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE
AS THE SURFACE LOW HAS BROKEN INTO TWO PIECES. THIS ALLOWS FOR
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER THE FRONT. IN FACT LOOKING AT
THE WIND FIELDS THERE IS LITTLE WAY TO TELL THAT THE FRONT HAS IN
FACT PASSED.

IN FACT THE REAL EXCITEMENT SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES FROM
LATE MONDAY INTO MID MORNING TUESDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. JET DYNAMICS ARE STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD AND PEAK FROM
400 AM TO 700 AM. THIS COULD BE AN INTENSE WEATHER TIME WITH HEAVY
RAIN LIKELY AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE
OR EVEN TORNADIC.

AFTER THE JET DYNAMIC FADE THERE SHOULD ONLY BE A SLIGHT LET UP IN
THE RAIN AS THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS PARKED OUT WEST OF POINT
CONCEPTION SITTING AND SPINNING MOISTURE STRAIGHT INTO THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES.

WEST WINDS DO NOT SHOW UP UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW OPENS
UP AND THE RESULTANT TROF MOVES OVER SRN CA ALONG WITH A SURFACE
LOW. THIS SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS FOR MOST OF
WEDNESDAY.

HARD TO DOWNPLAY THIS STORM. MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN DISPLAYING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. NEW RAINFALL
TOTALS CALL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES COASTS AND VALLEYS AND 3 TO 6 INCHES
IN THEN MOUNTAINS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 7 INCHES ON THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES. RAINFALL INTENSITIES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL VERY LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE
EVENT NEARS.

SNOW WILL BE THE HARDEST PART OF THE FORECAST. THE SOUTH FLOW SHOULD
KEEP IT ABOVE 7000 FEET. THERE IS COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY SO
EXPECT TO SEE THE SNOW LEVELS DROP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT THIS
MAY ONLY BE IN THE INTERIOR AS THE SOUTH FLOW DOES NOT LET UP.

MOUNTAIN WINDS MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BUT RIGHT NOW DO NOT SEE THIS A HUGE WIND EVENT.


.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY WILL BE NICE. TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE WITH SOME MUCH
NEEDED SUNSHINE. A NEW FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THIS DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE A SUPER RAIN PRODUCER. MDLS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING AROUND
FOR THE SATURDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD. THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION JUST SOME
INCREASED CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATOCU LINGERING
OVER VENTURA COUNTY AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY. OTHERWISE...
SKIES WERE CLEAR AND VSBYS UNRESTRICTED. SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS BETWEEN
5000 AND 7000 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
TAFS SITES THIS MORNING. KPRB COULD ACTUALLY HAVE SOME DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING.

CLOUDS SHOULD START TO THICKEN THIS EVENING AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AT KPRB/KSBP/KSMX/KSBA AFT 06Z THIS EVENING.

$$

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...THOMPSON

[weatherlover427]

Yeah the guys up there are great, except for that Bruno character ... he/she always writes their AFD's with a TON of abbreviations. :angry:

[Hurricaneman]

The west is getting slammed this year so far

[aveosmth]

Tomorrow evening should be a doozy!!

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CA...

...CA...

LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS CENTER OF UPPER
CIRCULATION OVER THE ERN PACIFIC NEAR 35N/132W...MOVING SEWD TOWARD
THE CNTRL CA COAST. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG UPPER
JET...APPROACHING 100KT...WILL MOVE INTO SRN CA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FOCUSED DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. STRONG ASCENT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID
MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTENING WHICH WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH HEATING
SHOULD BE LIMITED...FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE STRONG...WITH
VEERING FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION
WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...ROUGHLY
500 J/KG...WILL DEVELOP FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE...MAINLY IN THE VALLEY. HAIL...STRONG
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS.