Severe Weather possible for Southeast.

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks to me that it will be typicial summertime popcorn thunderstorms. Hopefully the SC and NC area will get some severe weather and rain!!!





SPC AC 021700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS EWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

MID-LEVEL TROUGH...ANCHORED BY LOW OVER ONTARIO...IS FORECAST TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER THE ERN U.S. AS STRONG MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS DEVELOP SEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER MI
WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO WRN QUEBEC WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES
EWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY...APPALACHIAN CHAIN INTO THE
ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING AT INTERSECTION OF WARM AND COLD
FRONTS. THIS SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM NRN VA
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING.


...CNTRL APPALACHIANS / MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS...

A BROKEN BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OH
VALLEY SWWD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO NRN
PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY AS IT SHIFTS EWD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
INSTABILITY. IN IT/S WAKE...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE S AND SW WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD DEEP COLD FRONTAL ZONE RAPIDLY
SWEEPING EWD. THIS DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES INCREASING
TO 250-500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF PA...TO AS HIGH AS 1000-2000 J/KG
OVER SERN VA INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS.

A MORE FOCUSED LINE OF VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT...INITIALLY ALONG NRN PORTION OF
INSTABILITY AXIS OVER ERN OH/WRN PA...WITH SUBSEQUENT SWD
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. WHILE NRN EXTENSION OF
THIS DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT MAY EXHAUST AVAILABLE INSTABILITY OVER
PA/NY BY LATE AFTERNOON...OTHER STORMS MOVING INTO VA AND THE
CAROLINAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST CONCENTRATED ZONE OF SEVERE TSTMS WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND S OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW TRIPLE POINT OVER CNTRL
AND ERN PORTIONS OF VA AND NC PERHAPS INTO SC. HERE...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OWING TO PROXIMITY OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAKS WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.
WHILE LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE...RELATIVELY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES. THESE STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID TO
LATE MONDAY EVENING.

FARTHER TO THE SW OVER SC INTO GA...ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...THOUGH THE WEAKER
LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT.

..MEAD.. 04/02/2006

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2306Z (7:06PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME


Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home

[Skywatch_NC]

Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 11:53 PM EDT on April 02, 2006

... Severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon...

A strong upper level disturbance will move across central North
Carolina Monday ahead of a cold front early Monday night. Warm and
increasingly humid air from the southwest will cause the air to
become increasingly unstable. Scattered thunderstorms will develop
by afternoon. Some of the storms are apt to be strong and may cause
severe weather. Large hail may be the biggest threat. Locally strong
damaging winds are also possible. And frequent lightning may occur
with any of the thunderstorms.

Monitor NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for the latest
forecast and updates. Remember... if you are outdoors when a storm
approaches... take shelter in a building or enclosed automobile.
Remember that trees and open shelters offer no protection from
lightning.

[CrazyC83]

This could be an extension of tonight's outbreak. You saw what happened in the central states, be ready!

[Acral]

Looks to me that it will be typicial summertime popcorn thunderstorms. Hopefully the SC and NC area will get some severe weather and rain!!!


Rain is good.. severe weather is bad. People die Thus, bad.


SPC AC 021700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS EWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

MID-LEVEL TROUGH...ANCHORED BY LOW OVER ONTARIO...IS FORECAST TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER THE ERN U.S. AS STRONG MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS DEVELOP SEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER MI
WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO WRN QUEBEC WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES
EWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY...APPALACHIAN CHAIN INTO THE
ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING AT INTERSECTION OF WARM AND COLD
FRONTS. THIS SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM NRN VA
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING.


...CNTRL APPALACHIANS / MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS...

A BROKEN BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OH
VALLEY SWWD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO NRN
PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY AS IT SHIFTS EWD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
INSTABILITY. IN IT/S WAKE...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE S AND SW WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD DEEP COLD FRONTAL ZONE RAPIDLY
SWEEPING EWD. THIS DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN SBCAPES INCREASING
TO 250-500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF PA...TO AS HIGH AS 1000-2000 J/KG
OVER SERN VA INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS.

A MORE FOCUSED LINE OF VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT...INITIALLY ALONG NRN PORTION OF
INSTABILITY AXIS OVER ERN OH/WRN PA...WITH SUBSEQUENT SWD
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. WHILE NRN EXTENSION OF
THIS DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT MAY EXHAUST AVAILABLE INSTABILITY OVER
PA/NY BY LATE AFTERNOON...OTHER STORMS MOVING INTO VA AND THE
CAROLINAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST CONCENTRATED ZONE OF SEVERE TSTMS WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND S OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW TRIPLE POINT OVER CNTRL
AND ERN PORTIONS OF VA AND NC PERHAPS INTO SC. HERE...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OWING TO PROXIMITY OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAKS WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.
WHILE LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE...RELATIVELY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES. THESE STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID TO
LATE MONDAY EVENING.

FARTHER TO THE SW OVER SC INTO GA...ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...THOUGH THE WEAKER
LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT.

..MEAD.. 04/02/2006

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2306Z (7:06PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME


Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home

[Weatherfreak14]

Svere Weather Warning out now for york county in sc.

[Skywatch_NC]

Had a severe thunderstorm warning earlier (expired at 11 am ET) for here in Wake County NC with some penny sized hail reported in parts of Raleigh.

More storms possible later this afternoon/evening as front approaches and comes through.

Eric

[CrazyC83]

They've gone up to a Moderate Risk for the coastal areas...

[Skywatch_NC]

Special Weather Statement

Expires 8:00 PM EDT on April 03, 2006

Statement as of 1:40 PM EDT on April 03, 2006

... Moderate risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon across
central North Carolina...

A strong upper level disturbance and associated surface cold front
will approach central North Carolina from the west this afternoon.
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
along and ahead of the cold front... and move east across the
Piedmont between 4 PM and 6 PM... . and across the coastal plain between 6 PM and 8 PM.

A prolonged period of partial sunshine will warm temperatures into
the 75 to 80 degree range ahead of the approaching front. When
coupled with cooling temperatures and strengthening winds aloft...
the atmosphere will become increasingly supportive of widespread
strong to severe thunderstorms as the afternoon progresses. Although
damaging winds and large hail appear to be the primary threats...
an isolated tornado or two will be possible. The greatest threat
of a tornado will be over the coastal plain of North Carolina.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio all hazards or other local media
for further details or updates.


Local Storm Reports: (from this morning here in Wake County NC)


04/03/2006 09:58 am

8 miles NE of Raleigh, Wake County.

Hail 0.75 inch, reported by trained spotter.

1/2 to 3/4 inch hail reported at intersection of Buffalo Road and Forestville Road.


04/03/2006 10:19 am

10 miles NW of Zebulon, Wake County.

Hail 0.88 inch, reported by trained spotter.

Nickel sized hail reported on Highway 96.


04/03/2006 10:20 am

Wendell, Wake County.

Hail 0.75 inch, reported by trained spotter.

Penny sized hail reported on Highway 64 bypass at Rolesville Road exit.


04/03/2006 09:42 am

Cary, Wake County.

Hail 0.50 inch, reported by trained spotter.

Dime sized hail... less than 3/4 inch just south of Regency Parkway and Tryon Road.


04/03/2006 09:48 am

Cary, Wake County.

Hail 0.25 inch, reported by trained spotter.

Pea sized hail reported at Cary Towne Center...intersection of Maynard Road and Walnut Street.

[Weatherfreak14]

Well bad for me, I wanted to see svr weather today. All north of me and I think it is to stay north.

[greeng13]

nary a cloud in the sky here today...but a bit on the windy side.

[Weatherfreak14]

same here to, you may get some svr weather later though, greeng13

[greeng13]

guess i better look at the radar again

[Weatherfreak14]

nope, now it looks its to go to the north of charleston too. U still could see Isolated storm, probably not svere.

[greeng13]

my lawn/plants could surely use the rain..

[Skywatch_NC]

Currently Wake Co NC under another severe t-storm warning until 8:15 pm ET.

Eric