SPC AC 030557
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT MON APR 03 2006
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE E COAST STATES FROM
THE DELMARVA REGION SSWWD INTO NERN GA...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY...AND THEN ACROSS THE E COAST STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- INCLUDING 70 KT MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK -- WILL MOVE ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
DAY...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD CREST THE
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTION
REDEVELOPS/INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE E COAST STATES FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SWD TO GA.
...E COAST STATES...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS LIKELY THIS PERIOD FROM
MD/DE/VA SWD INTO NERN GA...AS NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.
BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
PUSH MEAN-LAYER CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION NOW OVER THE TN
VALLEY REGION WILL RE-INTENSIFY AHEAD OF FRONT...INITIALLY FROM WRN
VA SSWWD INTO WRN SC AROUND 18Z.
DEVELOPING STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...AS STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS
SHOULD ORGANIZE WITH TIME INTO A LINE -- WITH EMBEDDED
LEWPS/BOWS/SUPERCELLS ACROSS VA AND NC...WHERE UPPER FORCING SHOULD
BE STRONGER. FURTHER S INTO SC AND NERN GA...MORE ISOLATED/CELLULAR
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...WITH SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS.
GIVEN FORECAST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES -- WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONGER TORNADOES MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND SERN VA
WHERE MODELS SUGGEST BACKED/SSELY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF APPARENT
LEE TROUGH.
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
STORMS MOVE OFF THE COAST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.
..GOSS/JEWELL.. 04/03/2006
Special WX Statement for my area:
ok, I am out, gtg to school sadly enough...why couldnt this happen on a weekend? if I miss it I will be highly upset...will try to pass pics along after the t-storms roll thru if anything good happens...peace out...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
531 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006
NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-032015-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE...
GREENVILLE...PLYMOUTH...COLUMBIA...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON...
WASHINGTON...RIVER ROAD...WALLACE...WARSAW...ROSE HILL...
KENANSVILLE...BEULAVILLE...MAGNOLIA...KINSTON...MAYSVILLE...
POLLOCKSVILLE...NEW BERN...HAVELOCK...ORIENTAL...ALLIANCE...
BAYBORO...ARAPAHOE...MINNESOTT BEACH...VANDEMERE...STONEWALL...
MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT...EMERALD ISLE...NEWPORT...
JACKSONVILLE...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK...NAGS HEAD...
SOUTHERN SHORES
531 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO VIRGINIA THIS MORNING
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED
WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES
EAST.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE
STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AREA
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT.
PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER PLANS NOW BEFORE THE
STORMS APPROACH. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.
$$
WINGENROTH
