Storms in Houston? SPC says no severe, but NWS says chance.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest SPC guidance does not include a risk of severe weather in Houston today (or at least not yet), but the NWS mentions a possible risk in their AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
329 AM CDT MON APR 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AFTER SUNRISE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
THOUGH MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...
BELIEVE THE FRONT COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS SHOW THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S
(WHICH SHOULD BE REACHED)...HIGH CAPES...LOW LI`S AND NO CAP. WILL CALL
FOR 20% AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS. IF WE DO GET A STORM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP...WE MIGHT EVEN BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE IN THE ZONES YET AND LET THE DAY CREW EVALUATE
THE MORNING SOUNDINGS AND THE 12Z MODELS. THE FRONT SHOULD NOT MAKE
MUCH PROGRESS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL STILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY BASED ON THE DRIER AIRMASS
CURRENT FOUND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WE COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THEN...WE GET
BACK INTO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. STILL EXPECTING ALL ACTIVITY
WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH OUR AREA CAPPED.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROBABLY GIVE US ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM HEADS OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.

RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH MINS HAVE BEEN TIED OR BROKEN FOR THE
PAST THREE DAYS UNDER OUR UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS. TODAY`S RECORDS
LOOK TO STAY INTACT IF THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE CORRECT. 42
&&

What do fellow Storm2k members think will happen? (Especially those living in the Houston area). The last time the SPC forgot to put us under any kind of percentage risk...We had a severe cell move through Harris County with penny sized hail in my area (last Thursday). Will we have a repeat?

[jasons2k]

well it looks like a setup where it'd be a pulse-type situation. in the latest discussion they seem to think there won't be any convection due to the clouds, etc. however, looking at the loops, there is a break in the clouds that should move over houston for the next couple of hours - that might give us just enough instability to kick-off a storm or two since it's already 81. we'll see - I could see it going either way at this point. how's that for putting it on the line? hehe.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow. It sure got hot and humid this afternoon! With temps. currently in the lower to middle 80s (86F according to my car)...and dew points to 66-68F...I would say that there is a decent chance of a few pulse severe storms this afternoon. The only inhibitor would be the partly to mostly cloudy skies. Can't wait to see the afternoon AFD and afternoon update from the SPC.

[jasons2k]

I hit 90 at my house yesterday - quite a bit warmer than IAH. Jumped in the pool for the first time all season

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is a little west of us...but it could be the precurser to what we may see later on:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0422
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT MON APR 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 031842Z - 032045Z

TOWERING CU WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SCENTRAL
TX FROM THE DRT AREA EWD TO NEAR SAT AND AUS AREA. MODERATE-STG
INSTABILITY WILL AID IN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL...
DESPITE MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR
DRT EWD TO JUST SOUTH OF KERRVILLE EWD TO BASTROP COUNTY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG EXISTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP
LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SVR HAIL/WIND AS STORMS MOVE SEWD AROUND 15 KTS. RELATIVELY WEAK MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY ELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH THAT AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..CROSBIE.. 04/03/2006


ATTN...WFO...EWX...

29969952 29660102 29230093 29000008 28939850 29609713
30209684 30049842

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hit 90 at my house yesterday - quite a bit warmer than IAH. Jumped in the pool for the first time all season

Wouldn't be surprised if it hit 90F again today. Summer is right around the corner..

[jasons2k]

Hmmm with there being a MCD west of here I think the chances of us having one just went up. The convergence along the front is actually better over here. We'll see....

[jasons2k]

nothing so far, doesn't look like anything this time

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, unless something can get going quickly...it looks like it will be a non-event. There are some severe cells out toward San Antonio though, so if something does pop up it will likely go severe quickly.