We need rain!

[PTrackerLA]

Since March 1st, we've only had .15" of rain. We are currently 7.28" below normal for the year as well. There are no chances of rain through the end of this week so drought conditions will continue to worsen. Does anyone see a pattern change coming that will give us better chances of rain? We desperately need it especially for the area farmers. Here's a special weather statement from the NWS New Orleans stating the drought and the fact that New Orleans and Baton Rouge have had their driest starts to a year ever . They also make correlations to increased tropical activity, just what we DON'T need this year (except for maybe a TD to break us out of this drought by summer).

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 AM CDT TUE APR 4 2006

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-051300-
AMITE MS-ASCENSION LA-ASSUMPTION LA-EAST BATON ROUGE LA-
EAST FELICIANA LA-HANCOCK MS-HARRISON MS-IBERVILLE LA-JACKSON MS-
LIVINGSTON LA-LOWER JEFFERSON LA-LOWER LAFOURCHE LA-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES LA-LOWER ST. BERNARD LA-LOWER TERREBONNE LA-
ORLEANS LA-PEARL RIVER MS-PIKE MS-POINTE COUPEE LA-ST. CHARLES LA-
ST. HELENA LA-ST. JAMES LA-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST LA-ST. TAMMANY LA-
TANGIPAHOA LA-UPPER JEFFERSON LA-UPPER LAFOURCHE LA-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES LA-UPPER ST. BERNARD LA-UPPER TERREBONNE LA-
WALTHALL MS-WASHINGTON LA-WEST BATON ROUGE LA-WEST FELICIANA LA-
WILKINSON MS-
800 AM CDT TUE APR 4 2006

...A DRY START TO 2006 AND THE ONSET OF A DROUGHT FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...

THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF 2006 HAVE COMBINED TO SET A RECORD FOR
LOWEST RAINFALL AT BATON ROUGE AND NEW ORLEANS. THIS COMPARES TO THE
VERY DRY STARTS OF 2000 AND 1962.

AT BATON ROUGE SINCE JANUARY 1ST THROUGH APRIL 3RD...ONLY 6.41 INCHES
OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN MEASURED. NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE SAME
PERIOD IS 16.89 INCHES. THIS IS A DEFICIT OF 10.48 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL. THE PREVIOUS DRIEST PERIOD WAS 2000...WHICH MEASURED 7.20
INCHES THROUGH APRIL 3RD.

AT NEW ORLEANS SINCE JANUARY 1ST THROUGH APRIL 3RD...6.74 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WAS MEASURED AND COMPARES TO A NORMAL OF 17.09 INCHES...A
DEFICIT OF 10.35 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THE PREVIOUS DRIEST 3 MONTH
PERIOD THROUGH APRIL 3RD WAS 6.81 INCHES IN 1962. IN ADDITION...
2000 HAD 7.09 INCHES AT NEW ORLEANS FOR THE SAME PERIOD.

SINCE JANUARY 1 2005...NEW ORLEANS HAS A RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 21.49
INCHES...DESPITE BIG RAINFALL EVENTS FROM HURRICANE CINDY AND
HURRICANE KATRINA. AT BATON ROUGE...THE 15 MONTH DEFICIT FROM
JANUARY 1 2005 IS AROUND 18.76 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

THE REASON FOR THE UNUSUALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND THE ONSET OF A
MODERATE AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT IS BELIEVED TO BE LINKED TO THE LA
NINA PHENOMENON OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. COOLER THAN NORMAL
WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN ALTERS THE TRACKS OF STORM SYSTEMS TO WELL NORTH OF THE GULF
STATES...THEREBY LIMITING THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR TYPICAL RAIN
EPISODES. THE CURRENT LA NINA CYCLE IS CONSIDERED TO BE WEAK.
COMPARABLE YEARS WITH SIMILAR LA NINA CONDITIONS SINCE 1950 INCLUDE
1960-1961...1984-1985...1995-1996...2001-2002. THIS YEAR IS THE
SECOND PART OF A 2005-2006 CYCLE.

AS WE APPROACH THE UPCOMING HURRICANE SEASON...SEVERAL CORRELATIONS
TO THE LA NINA AND ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WILL BE MADE.
RECENT STUDIES INDICATE THAT THE LA NINA PHASE OF THE ENSO CYCLE
IS TYPICALLY MORE ACTIVE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...THAN THE EL NINO
COUNTERPART OF THE ENSO CYCLE. THE COMPARABLE OR ANALOG YEARS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AVERAGED 12 NAMED STORMS AND 7 HURRICANES IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN IN THE SECOND SEASON OF THE PHASE. ON AVERAGE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO IN ANALOG YEARS...3 NAMED STORMS AND 2 HURRICANES
TYPICALLY DEVELOP. WHILE THESE ARE STATISTICAL AVERAGES...THEY DO NOT
FULLY REVEAL WHAT KIND OF ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE UPCOMING
SEASON NOR INDICATE AREAS OF HIGHER CHANCES OF LANDFALLING
HURRICANES.

HISTORICALLY...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI HAD
SEVERAL TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES OCCUR IN THE COMPARABLE YEARS.
IN 1960...HURRICANE ETHEL HIT LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. IN 1985...
HURRICANE ELENA STRUCK THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND HURRICANE JUAN
MEANDERED OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE 1995-1996
SEASONS HAD NO LANDFALLS IN LOUISIANA OR MISSISSIPPI. IN 2001...
TROPICAL STORM ALLISON AFFECTED SOUTHEAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI. IN 2002...AN ACTIVE SEASON SAW TROPICAL STORMS BERTHA...
HANNA AND ISIDORE MAKE LANDFALL IN THE CENTRAL GULF STATES ALONG
WITH HURRICANE LILI INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FINALLY....THE
2005 SEASON SAW 10 NAMED STORMS AND 6 HURRICANES IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH HURRICANES CINDY...KATRINA AND RITA MAKING HISTORICAL
LANDFALLS ON LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI SHORES.

[wx247]

Hopefully you don't make that rain up later in the year in terms of tropical activity... or at least strong tropical activity. Maybe you will get some rain soon... Friday evening might just be that time.

[HurricaneHunter914]

You need rain Florida needs rain WE ALL NEED RAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[greeng13]

I need rain too!

[BayouVenteux]

Amen! The discussions from the N.O. NWS mets contain this mantra-like statement almost daily...

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

Apparently residing there permanently, it seems!

[SouthFloridawx]

Send some rain my way!!!!

[JonathanBelles]

I need rain too. the gfs model says it will rain in 8 or 9 days

[Weatherfreak14]

I need rain in my area, were 7in below average.

[terstorm1012]

it's dry all over the East. Might be cycling back into drought.

we've had several brush fires here.

[angelwing]

I heard that it's the 4th driest March ever in Philly. and the snow we just had at work this morning is gone, the sun is out, it's cold and everything is dry already, sigh

[fwbbreeze]

Its bone dry in teh FLorida Panhandle also. I wittnessed a fire being started this weekend with a cigarette butt. Good thing there were people around to put it out. The amazing thing was the fire expanded in size really quickly. Its no wonder these wildires spread so fast.

fwbbreeze

[cjrciadt]

0.02 rainfall total in 38 days here, reminds of 1998 all over again.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Yep we need rain too. .35 of an inch of rain since November 1st.

Dry as I've ever seen it.

[Patrick99]

We could use rain. Weathermen on the radio are hinting at rain for Sunday into Monday, but I'm not buying into the idea of anything substantial. I'll believe it when I see it.

[SouthFloridawx]

Finally some real rain in South Florida's forecast!!!

000
FXUS62 KMFL 060645
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
245 AM EDT THU APR 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE E GULF
OF MEX WILL MOVE ACROSS FLA INTO THE ATLC TODAY WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING W ACROSS THE FLA PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NW TO E THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE
SAT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EXTREME N FLA SAT MORN WITH THE
LATTER STALLING OVER CENTRAL FLA SUN THROUGH TUE. APPEARS FRONT
DISSIPATES TUE BUT LOW LEVEL WIND CIRCULATION ABOUT THE HIGH BEHIND
THE FORMER STALLED FRONT WILL BE E/SE AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL STILL
ADVECT OVER S FLA TO POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER S FLA AS
WELL INTO WED. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE REALLY JUMPS POPS MON/TUE FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL GO WITH A STATUS QUO WITH THIS RUN SINCE THIS IS
A DRASTIC JUMP FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS (A LITTLE FURTHER
EXPLANATION IN MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW).

[Patrick99]

Something about that map makes me think this rain is unlikely. There's going to be a low up around Greenland that will trail a front all the way down to South Florida and provide focus for some shower activity?

This is my forecast. High pressure bridges the front, and it dissipates. Wind flow swings around to the SE.....*maybe* bringing in some hit/miss showers from the Bahamas. Whoever happens to get that cumulus line that often forms over Grand Bahama gets the most rain, IMO.

[PTrackerLA]

Well we have a 30% shot of rain tomorrow and the NWS Lake Charles is saying that if convection gets going it will become severe. I've heard the same thing so many times so far this year and it has never materialized so I'm not expecting to see anything tomorrow. We can still hope though.



FRIDAY...UPPER LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND SLIDES SOUTHEAST
INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW. COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN AND HENCE WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS. WILL MAKE
MENTION THAT SPC HAS ALL OF AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR FRIDAY. SHOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP...KINEMATICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

FOR WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS WEATHER MAKER EXITING EASTERN SEABOARD. LOOKING DRY AND
VERY PLEASANT. FAIR WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

[Lindaloo]

None in sight for us PT. NONE!!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yeah!!!! Central Florida will actually be getting rain after almost 2 months!

[BayouVenteux]

AAAAARGH! Us old folks would refer to this as "sounding like a broken record".

Pretty sure the local mets are to the point now where they have the highlighted line programmed into their quick key commands for easy access...just cut-n-paste into your discussion every time there's a remote chance of a spit's worth coming our way.

FXUS64 KLIX 061950
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
250 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS. IN THE NEAR TERM...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND DIG ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED...THEREFORE THE CONVECTION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER END OF THE SCATTERED CATEGORY RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL BE OBSERVED. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING SEVERE AS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.