Potential severe weather for Florida Sun. - Mon.

[MiamiensisWx]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 081420
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1015 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

.UPDATE...MORNING SUFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS ARE INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS EAST. SOUTH FLORIDA WINDS ARE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO THE MID 20S. THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS
DECENT SHEAR PROFILES...WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT SE FLOW AND 15 TO 20 KNOT
SW FLOW. MODIFIED SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE VALUES AROUND A RESPECTABLE
1700 J/KG. MOISTURE REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST SHY OF ONE INCH...WITH DRY AIR DOMINANT
ABOVE 7 KFT. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE COPIOUS CLOUD
COVER...MOSTLY CIRRUS WITH SCATTERED CU DECKS. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE 90 MARK WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
PLAUSIBLE OVER INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST SHORTLY TO UP THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE. FOR
INTERIOR AREAS...WILL INCREASE TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES UP...AND
INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...UPPER DYNAMICS AND
INCREASED MOISTURE STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. NO CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

MARINE UPDATE...SETTLEMENT POINT CMAN IS BLOW AROUND 15 TO 17 KNOTS.
COASTAL SITES ALONG PALM BEACH COAST ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT AREA
WITH WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH. WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE ARE LIKELY A LITTLE
HIGHER...MORE IN LINE WITH SETTLEMENT POINT. WILL INTRODUCE CAUTION
STATEMENT FOR PALM BEACH WATERS FOR TODAY.
56

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER PROBLEM FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE EXPECTED
WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PLANES AS WE SPEAK.
BOTH GFS AND NAM SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH
BELIEVE NAM IS A BIT TO SLOW IN MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. IN ANY CASE...BOTH MODELS FILL UP THE UPPER LOW BUT KEEP THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING/DIGGING SOUTHEAST WITH AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A SQUALL LINE FEATURE
AND MOVE IT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS/LAKE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING(NAM LATER THAN GFS) AND THROUGH ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY
SUNDAY EVENING. ACTUAL FROPA LATER THAT EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION (POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER) THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROVIDING THE FORCING. GFS ALSO SHOWS PRETTY HIGH OMEGA
VALUES. WL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX IN THE HWO. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO FOR ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND COLD AIR ALOFT KEEPS AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, HOWEVER, LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TEND
TO WORK AGAINST IT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES TROUGH THE AREA AND INCREASE TO 20 + KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE WITH GULF STREAM SEAS REACHING
7 FEET OR HIGHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING BUILDING UP
THROUGH MONDAY. GULF WATERS WILL DO LIKEWISE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ONLY CONCERN AT THIS TIME WOULD BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MEAN RH VALUES
COULD FALL TO THE MID/UPPER 30% FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVER WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.


&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SETTLE OVER FLORIDA/GULF KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE
FROM APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

47

Any thoughts on the severe potential Sunday through Monday for Florida?

[HurricaneHunter914]

I hope we do get some rain from this even if it may cause damage, Florida will at least be getting the first rainfall in a long time.

[joseph01]

I hope we do get some rain from this even if it may cause damage, Florida will at least be getting the first rainfall in a long time.

You got that right. We need rain very badly, and with everything really starting to grow now.

[HurricaneHunter914]

CapeVerdeWave I'm assuming that you also need this rain really badly too, huh?

[MiamiensisWx]

Yeah, it would be nice... as long as the front dosn't stall with rain for several days!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Actually I'd like several days of rain.

[Scorpion]

Sweet. Finally some rain.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Central Florida will not see anything to the level of what was seen in the last two days. At worst I would say that there are a few wind damage reports (from 60mph gusts) and may be 1 or 2 reports of coin sized hail.

[Cookiely]

I'm praying for rain in Tampa. 40% chance is iffy to me. The NAM is saying less rain but the GFS has been more persistent that we will get something.

[CrazyC83]

Is this the SAME system that has been producing endless severe weather the last three days?

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep, it is.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The rain is very close I'm about to get the full force.

[Cookiely]

I think at my house I got three drops. I'm so upset.

[HurricaneHunter914]

My lawn got the first drenching of this year. It downpoured and thundered and everything.Cookiely I am so sorry you didn't get rain but there will be another time. In the mean time all of us in Florida is going to have to use their hoses for lawn watering.

[MiamiensisWx]

Radar...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[MiamiensisWx]

Watches issued...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/

[conestogo_flood]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM EDT SUN APR 9 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL 700
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF FORT MEYERS FLORIDA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MARATHON FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE REMAINING INHIBITION
SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN
FL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER ERN GULF INCREASE
LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS. MOST FAVORED AREAS OF
INITIATION WILL BE SEA BREEZE FRONT SRN COAST AND SWD PROPAGATING
CONVECTION ALONG E COAST MOVING INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. BOUNDARY
INTERACTION FROM INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS OTHER AREAS OF S FL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

[Scorpion]

Getting first thunderstorm now. Nothing major yet.

[MiamiensisWx]

FLC099-091745-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0013.060409T1643Z-060409T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1243 PM EDT SUN APR 9 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 1239 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOYNTON
BEACH...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
BOYNTON BEACH BY 1245 PM EDT.
OCEAN RIDGE BY 1250 PM EDT.


LAT...LON 2658 8016 2647 8018 2647 8007 2658 8006

$$

KOB

Here we go...

[SouthFloridawx]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
159 PM EDT SUN APR 9 2006

FLC011-099-091830-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-060409T1830Z/
PALM BEACH FL-BROWARD FL-
159 PM EDT SUN APR 9 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES...

AT 157 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DELRAY BEACH TO NORTH
LAUDERDALE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DELRAY BEACH TO
MARGATE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DEERFIELD BEACH...POMPANO BEACH AIRPORT AND POMPANO BEACH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2648 8009 2628 8040 2611 8031 2618 8012

$$

KOB