Next Weekend.

[conestogo_flood]

Next week, my family is going on a road trip to somewhere around here in the United States so we can do some shopping(Friday-Monday). We will arrive in the USA Friday afternoon probably, and we will go where severe weather looks like a possibility. We have purposely waiting until early this week to plan it, so we know where the weather will be.

Possible locations include:
Southern Michigan
Northern and eastern Indiana
Western, Central and northern Ohio
Western New York
Northern Pennsylvania

If you were planning this trip, and wanted to be where the best weather chances are, where would you reccomend going? We will be bringing our chase equipment, but probably wont do much chasing, other than sitting in the hotel watching radars, and maybe driving a few miles out of town to see some awesome storms.

Please help me! We are booking Monday/Tuesday.

[6SpeedTA95]

Well if your trip isn't set in stone, I'd probably shoot for a late april/early May date and try to make it over to the plains if you really wanna see some good weather. I'd say Ohio is your best bet out of those states but you're limiting your chances big time by being that far north and east this time of year. Also its a week out so its very hard to make a decision reguarding weather especially severe weather. Our 7 day forcast has a chance of rain friday/sat next weekend so that typicallymeans it'll be east 1 or 2 days later assuming its a result of a Low pressure system and not just the dryline.

cliffs: Wait till late april/early and its too early to tell anything difinitive about next week.

[conestogo_flood]

It's next weekend. It's a long weekend here in Canada, so we are road tripping. Once again, for the best chances of severe weather in these locations, which would you pick personally to vacation, and storm watch. NEXT WEEKEND. APRIL 14-17.

Possible locations include:
Southern Michigan
Northern and eastern Indiana
Western, Central and northern Ohio
Western New York
Northern Pennsylvania

[6SpeedTA95]

I still think Ohio is your best bet. That puts in you range of western PA and southern MI should you guys need to move quick. Not to mention Ohio gets a fair amount of svr weather.

[CrazyC83]

Next week, my family is going on a road trip to somewhere around here in the United States so we can do some shopping(Friday-Monday). We will arrive in the USA Friday afternoon probably, and we will go where severe weather looks like a possibility. We have purposely waiting until early this week to plan it, so we know where the weather will be.

You'll also have to be careful about finding businesses operating over the Easter weekend...

[conestogo_flood]

We will. But still, anyone has opinions about severe weather next weekend in these locations? Someone has got to know something.

Possible locations include:
Southern Michigan
Northern and eastern Indiana
Western, Central and northern Ohio
Western New York
Northern Pennsylvania

[CrazyC83]

We will. But still, anyone has opinions about severe weather next weekend in these locations? Someone has got to know something.

Possible locations include:
Southern Michigan
Northern and eastern Indiana
Western, Central and northern Ohio
Western New York
Northern Pennsylvania

Hard to tell this far out. Ohio and Indiana seem best for severe weather due to their more open landscape...

[conestogo_flood]

I have until Tuesday.

[hpsupercell]

Perhaps some severe weather on the weekend? It's too early to tell! There looks to be a vorticity max south and along Lake Erie come Saturday, and a cold front will slide through in the evening. That combined with relatively high dewpoint and maybe some sunshine could get those thunderstorms popping!

I’d say Ohio is your best bet, central sections. Then the cold front, perhaps Michigan and Ontario, southward.

[NWIASpotter]

I have until Tuesday.

Even if you decide on Tuesday you aren't going to have a good chance of seeing severe weather. The system that you are talking about could change locations, directions, etc and end up not coming to any of those states. I've ran into a lot of posters now trying to forecast weather, let alone severe weather when it is 5+ days out! I even had to read a post that a user posted a chase target for Saturday, last night!! Yes, 6 days out and people are thinking about pinpointing areas for chasing or even in your case here, yes you have a large area picked out, but you have to have it down to one area by tomorrow? Anybody that knows stormchasing usually understands that you cannot decide a region that you want to go to until 3 days out at the furthest, a state will be pinpointed the day before and you exact location won't be decided until the morning of the event!!

With the things that you have to have decided you might as well pick the place that you will have the most fun at without the storms and then just hope to get lucky and have them come to ya. I don't think you can really say what location is going to be best.

[conestogo_flood]

I’d say Ohio is your best bet, central sections. Then the cold front, perhaps Michigan and Ontario, southward.

Alright. I'll take that into consideration.

[Windy]

It's next weekend. It's a long weekend here in Canada, so we are road tripping. Once again, for the best chances of severe weather in these locations, which would you pick personally to vacation, and storm watch. NEXT WEEKEND. APRIL 14-17.

Possible locations include:
Southern Michigan
Northern and eastern Indiana
Western, Central and northern Ohio
Western New York
Northern Pennsylvania

Too far out to tell. You probably won't see much severe weather in any of those locations. Indiana is a better bet than anywhere else, but there is a reason the plains are called "tornado alley".

[conestogo_flood]

You guys seem to be ridiculing me.

I just want some opinions on where you'd go if you were going to plan a road trip to these locations! So far, I've got Ohio, and you can't forecast severe weather. Any more help would be appreciated.

[Windy]

You guys seem to be ridiculing me.

I just want some opinions on where you'd go if you were going to plan a road trip to these locations! So far, I've got Ohio, and you can't forecast severe weather. Any more help would be appreciated.

I don't think that anyone is ridiculing you, it's just that what you've asked is an impossible question. It is impossible to forecast a target area that far in advance. Your guess is as good as anyone's. That said, climatalogically, the places that you are going to are not known for having strong springtime severe weather patterns, though they do happen from time to time. The only good advice that anyone can give you is that if you want to see storms, you're probably considering the wrong places. If you're stuck with those places, then just cross your fingers and pray that mother nature does something really bizarre while you happen to be there.

Candidly, I would reccomend that you not try to chase any storms until you've learned more about them. If you don't know how to forecast where severe storms might be, don't understand even in a basic way how the atmosphere works, and don't understand storm structure, you have no business trying to chase them. You will wind up very frustrated, and if you get lucky enough to actually intercept a supercell, possibly hurt. I was 'one of those guys' when I first started chasing, and my first encounter with softball sized hail which totalled my car and blew out my windshield 'learned me quick that I needed to hit the books again. I can point you to some very good books that will teach you about how to effectively chase and give you the lowdown on the very basics of forcasting severe weather, if you want me to.

[conestogo_flood]

I highly doubt I will run into softball size hail, I have been storm chasing two years now, this will be my third year.

[NWIASpotter]

I highly doubt I will run into softball size hail, I have been storm chasing two years now, this will be my third year.

Then experience should tell you that you shouldn't be asking where your best chance of severe weather would be that far out in advance. I don't believe we are ridiculing you we are just stating the obvious, that you can't forecast that far out in advance for severe weather. Just nearly impossible, as I stated in my first post. Go whereever you would have the most fun without storms and then hope that you can get a show from mother nature somehow...

[Windy]

I highly doubt I will run into softball size hail, I have been storm chasing two years now, this will be my third year.

That's the thing, though, you don't know. I'm not sure what you call 'storm chasing', but if you don't understand that storms can't be forecast 7 days in advance and that the northeast corridor of the United States isn't the best place to look for supercells, I doubt you have a firm grasp on the atmospheric principles involved in storm formation and what to expect from storm structure. You've never seen softball hail because you live in Canada, which rarely gets softball sized hail. Down in America, softball/baseball sized hail happens fairly regularly during the spring, though it's always a big event when it does. A few years ago, I intercepted a storm that dropped hail 8 inches in diameter. One of the hailballs from that storm set a world's record. How do you know you won't find softball sized hail in a storm? Because you've never seen any before? Trust me, the first time will be memorable!

I don't want to discourage you from chasing, because chasing is fun and cool and rewarding and people who love to chase generally can't be discoraged anyway, I just look at your age and what you're trying to do and how you're trying to go about it and am kinda kindly suggesting that you that you need to hit the books. Chasing will be much more rewarding for you once you do. I actually know of a kid a year younger than you who chases tornadoes all the time and understands atmospheric principals almost as well as some of the OU met students, so age isn't really a limiting issue (other than the whole driver's licence thing and being about to rent a hotel room) -- but experience is. And not just experience of barreling blindly into thunderstorms and taking pictures of things that look like funnel clouds to you, but experience of sitting down and trying to learn the atmospheric principles that drive severe thunderstorm formation, what ingredients to look for, what a supercell looks like, how to safely intercept one, where to watch for tornadoes, where to watch for hail, where to watch for RFD winds, etc. etc. I don't know for certain that you don't understand these concepts, but I highly doubt it given the question that you've asked in this thread. Kinda like an auto mechanic asking where the engine is.

Even for people who chase all the time, supercells are scary as all hell. Once you've driven through a damage track or two and seen exploded homes everywhere and trees tossed a half mile, you'll know what I mean. Chasing is kinda like skydiving in that you really need to know the game pretty well before you jump into it. It's actually surprisingly safe once you do. By all means, don't stop chasing, but please read up a bit more before you do. You don't have to, it's just a gentle suggestion.

This book is a really good start.

This book is what you should read after you read the first book.

[conestogo_flood]

I wasn't going down to chase. I am going down to shop, but I was just wondering where a good locale might be for a few storms to fire, if any, judging by what models might have indicated, because everyone was just off and flying on all the other outbreaks 10 weeks in advance.(sarcasm of course).

I know how to chase, I know storm structures and formations thank you. Chasers start somewhere, and maybe southern Ontario is the perfect classroom. I just detest how experience chasers rididule the inexperienced like they are just doned-dumb.

Anyways, so the SPC can forecast possible area's of severe weather 8 days in advance, but 5 days is pushing it. Well then...

[wxmann_91]

I wasn't going down to chase. I am going down to shop, but I was just wondering where a good locale might be for a few storms to fire, if any, judging by what models might have indicated, because everyone was just off and flying on all the other outbreaks 10 weeks in advance.(sarcasm of course).

I know how to chase, I know storm structures and formations thank you. Chasers start somewhere, and maybe southern Ontario is the perfect classroom. I just detest how experience chasers rididule the inexperienced like they are just doned-dumb.

Anyways, so the SPC can forecast possible area's of severe weather 8 days in advance, but 5 days is pushing it. Well then...

Nobody's ridiculing you, but storm chasing is a tricky business. I'd recommend that if you want to chase that you should learn everything about severe storms and their structure. The basic stuff won't work, RFD winds are as strong as a Cat 1 hurricane/F1 tornado and Baseball-Softball sized hail can really do a number on a chase vehicle (ask the chasers that got into that tough spot on May 12 of last year). Tricky situations come up all the time. Attend a Skywarn Spotter Training class. And definitely, until you've had many years of experience under your belt, chase with a partner, and avoid overly dangerous situations.

As for good areas to chase, I'd recommend Norman, OK, if you are able to skip classes. Hoards of chasers live there and if you are serious about svr wx and truly storm chasing, it's a paradise for the tornado enthusiast.

Hope this helps

[Windy]

I wasn't going down to chase. I am going down to shop, but I was just wondering where a good locale might be for a few storms to fire, if any, judging by what models might have indicated, because everyone was just off and flying on all the other outbreaks 10 weeks in advance.(sarcasm of course).

Again, models don't give you the kind of information that you are looking for 10 days in advance. If anything, the best that they can do is give you some hint about what the longwave pattern might do, and even then that's only if the models are being being unusually friendly about agreeing with each other.

I know how to chase, I know storm structures and formations thank you. Chasers start somewhere, and maybe southern Ontario is the perfect classroom. I just detest how experience chasers rididule the inexperienced like they are just doned-dumb.

I highly doubt that you know storm structure well enough to safely navigate a supercell. I also doubt you could find a supercell through anything other than pure luck. I'm trying to help you with both. I might be being too abrasive here, so bear with me if I am, but you need to let your pride go on this one. We're just trying to help you. Ultimately, you'll either give up chasing or go down the path that I've tried to point you towards. The sooner your start down that path, the sooner you'll get a chance to really enjoy the joys (and pitfalls!) of stormchasing. I don't want you to stop chasing, I want you to start chasing responsibly. If nothing else, you're responsible for not allowing your automobile to become a projectile and be hurled into someone's house.

Anyways, so the SPC can forecast possible area's of severe weather 8 days in advance, but 5 days is pushing it. Well then...

The SPC can HINT at the vauge possibility of severe weather over a very large area using an EXPERIMENTAL product. You're asking for people to tell you which STATE to go to, and that's the kind of thing you don't know until you're looking at the 12Z NAM (WRF now, I guess) run the day before. What we keep trying to allude to is that if you don't understand that what you're asking for is impossible, you probably shouldn't be trying to intercept storms yet. I can't stop you and you probably won't stop, but please, at least take a look at the two books that I referenced you to. And start reading everything that you can possibly find over at http://www.stormtrack.org.