Is North Texas Headed for a Hot Summer?

[TexasStooge]

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
650 PM CDT MON APR 17 2006

...ARE WE HEADED FOR A HOT SUMMER?...

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...TEMPERATURES
WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THE REST OF THE SPRING AND
THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER MONTHS. BUT HOW HOT COULD IT GET?

LAST SUMMER (2005) WAS QUITE DRY...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SO CRUCIAL FOR EXTREME SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES DID NOT
SETTLE IN UNTIL SEPTEMBER. SEPTEMBER 2005 WAS THE HOTTEST ON
RECORD...TYING 1939 FOR THE HIGHEST AVERAGE...AND EXCEEDING THAT
YEAR FOR THE HOTTEST AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH.

AT DFW...THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE OF 2005 WAS 104 DEGREES ON
SEPTEMBER 28...THE LATEST IN THE SEASON EVER FOR A SUMMER`S HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE. THAT SAME WEEK...THE MERCURY REACHED AS HIGH AS AS 109
SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX. ON SEPTEMBER 26...WACO REACHED 108
DEGREES...THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURE OF THE SUMMER THERE.

THIS SHOWS US HOW CRUCIAL THAT OPPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE IS FOR SUMMER
HEAT. WHEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS COINCIDE WITH A POTENT UPPER HIGH...
SOME OF THE MOST INTENSE TEXAS HEAT OCCURS. BUT WITHOUT THE
RIDGE...A DROUGHT MAY NOT YIELD WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THIS YEAR...THE RIDGE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY STRONG FOR SPRINGTIME...
PUSHING SEVERE WEATHER AND SPRING RAINFALL WELL NORTH...INTO THE
MIDWEST. BUT WILL THIS CONTINUE? DOES A HOT SPRING PORTEND A HOT
SUMMER FOR NORTH TEXAS?

FOR DALLAS/FORT WORTH...APRIL 17, 2006 WAS THE THIRD EARLIEST
TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH ON RECORD. HOW HOT WERE THE SUMMERS THAT FOLLOWED
OTHER EARLY 100-DEGREE DAYS?

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE 100-DEGREE DAYS THAT HAVE OCCURRED EARLIER
THAN MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...AND A SUMMARY OF THE SUMMERS THAT
FOLLOWED.

                             THE SUMMER THAT FOLLOWED
   EARLY EVENTS       100-DEGREE DAYS         AUG SUMMER TEMP

   MAR 9, 1911      27 - 16TH MOST (TIE)     WARMER THAN NORMAL
   MAR 21, 1916      9 - BELOW NORMAL        COOLER THAN NORMAL
   APR 17, 2006
   APR 18, 1925     33 - 12TH MOST (TIE)        8TH HOTTEST
   MAY 4, 1947      18 - NEAR NORMAL            NEAR NORMAL
   MAY 6, 1998      56 - 2ND MOST               2ND HOTTEST

A COUPLE OF THE HOTTEST SUMMERS ARE ABOVE...INCLUDING THE 2ND
HOTTEST SUMMER ON RECORD (1998). HOWEVER...MANY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES
FOLLOWED EARLY-SEASON HEAT.

OF THE 10 WARMEST SPRINGS ON RECORD...ONLY 2 WERE AMONG THE 10
HOTTEST SUMMERS. HALF OF THOSE WARM SPRINGS WERE FOLLOWED BY SUMMERS
THAT WERE COOLER THAN NORMAL...INCLUDING THE WET SUMMERS OF 1991 AND
2004...BOTH AMONG THE 10 WETTEST.

THE HOTTEST SUMMER ON RECORD (1980) FOLLOWED A SPRING WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST 100-DEGREE DAY WAS IN JUNE. THE
MONTHS PRECEDING THAT SUMMER WERE DRY...THOUGH NOT AMONG THE DRIEST.
THE RIDGE BUILT IN DURING JUNE...AND TOOK MONTHS TO RELEASE ITS GRIP.

SPRING IS A TRANSITION SEASON...MARKED BY PATTERN SHIFTS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...SPRINGTIME WEATHER OFTEN HAS LITTLE
CORRELATION WITH THE SEASONS PRECEDING OR FOLLOWING IT. HOWEVER...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS OFTEN RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WITH
THE EXTENDED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HERE IN NORTH TEXAS...THE UPPER
RIDGE HAS ALREADY SHOWN IT CAN PUSH THE MERCURY HIGHER THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE POSSIBLE. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW FIERCE THE
RIDGE IS ONCE THE SUMMER MONTHS ARRIVE.

[jasons2k]

Very good PIS from the NWS! We'll just have to see, but doesn't look encouraging so far.

[gboudx]

Mini heat waves like this aren't all that uncommon for DFW in April and May. Just like they aren't uncommon in Sept and Oct. It happens. Though, I don't like the part of the summer ridge being so strong this early. Let's hope this is just a fluke and we get some rain in the next couple of months, starting later this week into next week.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I think the whole state is heading for a very hot and dry summer. The only thing that will throw a wrench into this pattern will be a tropical system of some sort.

We might be in one of those cycles that we had in the 30's, 50's and 80's where we have two or three years of above normal temps with below normal rain fall.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think that this hot and dry spring is going to unfortunatly lead to a VERY active tropical season for Texas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Mini heat waves like this aren't all that uncommon for DFW in April and May. Just like they aren't uncommon in Sept and Oct. It happens. Though, I don't like the part of the summer ridge being so strong this early. Let's hope this is just a fluke and we get some rain in the next couple of months, starting later this week into next week.

yeah, but how often does dallas see a 100+ degree day this early? According the the NWS, this is the 3rd earliest ever, and this is the 1st earliest 101F reading.

[wxmann_91]

I think that this hot and dry spring is going to unfortunatly lead to a VERY active tropical season for Texas.

Reasoning behind that?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think that this hot and dry spring is going to unfortunatly lead to a VERY active tropical season for Texas.

Reasoning behind that?

For one...the added heat in the western Caribbean will only help to fuel these storms more, and what may typically only be a Cat. 1 landfall, could become a Cat. 3/4 landfall. Another reason is that tropical systems seem to like to hit drought plagued areas, and with all this drought it would make sense that nature would try to balance herself out. Finally though, I think a big part of the problem is the hurricane cycle we are in. For *most* of the Texas coast to be sparred the last few seasons was by shear luck alone. With all these storms out there...one of them has to hit us eventually, and I fear this could be the year.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I think that this hot and dry spring is going to unfortunatly lead to a VERY active tropical season for Texas.

Reasoning behind that?

For one...the added heat in the western Caribbean will only help to fuel these storms more, and what may typically only be a Cat. 1 landfall, could become a Cat. 3/4 landfall. Another reason is that tropical systems seem to like to hit drought plagued areas, and with all this drought it would make sense that nature would try to balance herself out. Finally though, I think a big part of the problem is the hurricane cycle we are in. For *most* of the Texas coast to be sparred the last few seasons was by shear luck alone. With all these storms out there...one of them has to hit us eventually, and I fear this could be the year.

It wouldn't surprise me one way or another. If I were hedging a bet on this season, I would take the opposite of all of the media hype about the upcoming season . If you watch some of the media you would think every storm that is going to form this year will be a Katrina (or name what you think is the worse storm ever) clone. We may very well get hit somewhere on the US coast line with a cat 3 or greater. It could very well end up that alot of stroms form and never come close to the US coast too and we end up with a normal season.

[Portastorm]

Even in the more non dramatic seasons, all it takes is a tropical storm that stalls inland to create major destruction and misery. I reference one Tropical Storm Charley in 1999.

I was in Houston for a Promisekeepers Conference and it rained like crazy for two days but was nothing that Houston couldn't handle. The storm then moved west, stalled over Del Rio, and rained Biblical proportions in 48 hours, flooding parts of the city, killing and injuring hundreds, and creating property damage in the millions. Unfortunately it was the poorest section of town that took the worst and to this day, they still have not recovered.

As I posted on another thread, many of our Texas droughts have been busted by a tropical system. Just the same, this drought could continue on for another several years and we see nothing. All I know is today it hit 100 again here in Austin and it's dang hot!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Even in the more non dramatic seasons, all it takes is a tropical storm that stalls inland to create major destruction and misery. I reference one Tropical Storm Charley in 1999.

I was in Houston for a Promisekeepers Conference and it rained like crazy for two days but was nothing that Houston couldn't handle. The storm then moved west, stalled over Del Rio, and rained Biblical proportions in 48 hours, flooding parts of the city, killing and injuring hundreds, and creating property damage in the millions. Unfortunately it was the poorest section of town that took the worst and to this day, they still have not recovered.

As I posted on another thread, many of our Texas droughts have been busted by a tropical system. Just the same, this drought could continue on for another several years and we see nothing. All I know is today it hit 100 again here in Austin and it's dang hot!

But you're an Indian's fan so you should be used to droughts.

[Portastorm]

Oh CC ... you're cruel!

Don't remind me ...

[jasons2k]

CC that was a good one

Yep, I remember 'that' Charley. San Marcos was a real mess after that one.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Won't a hot and dry summer mean a bad grassfire season?

[Roxy]

Won't a hot and dry summer mean a bad grassfire season?

Already got some grassfires, there was one in Amarillo this weekend that was pretty dang close to the urban area. We drove from Houston to Amarillo and everything north of Whichta Falls was BROWN. Looks like it'll be a bad grassfire summer if they don't get some rain.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Won't a hot and dry summer mean a bad grassfire season?

The state has already had a historic fire season. Any quick shot type rains will help the grasses grow and green up in the short term and then they will dry up just allowing more fuel for the fire. What most of us need is a long, sustained wet pattern that really allows for the moisture to stick to the soil.

[gboudx]

Mini heat waves like this aren't all that uncommon for DFW in April and May. Just like they aren't uncommon in Sept and Oct. It happens. Though, I don't like the part of the summer ridge being so strong this early. Let's hope this is just a fluke and we get some rain in the next couple of months, starting later this week into next week.

yeah, but how often does dallas see a 100+ degree day this early? According the the NWS, this is the 3rd earliest ever, and this is the 1st earliest 101F reading.

If you look back at climate records for DFW, you can see that there is no basis for assuming that this early 101 day suggests a hot summer is in store. For example, the earliest was in 1911. That year saw 27 days of at least 100 degrees, but doesn't crack the top 10 for most in a year. The 2nd earliest was 1916, but that year only saw 9 days. The average number of days for DFW is 15.

Consequently, 1980 didn't see the 1st 100 until June 7th, but that year holds the record of 69 total days of at least 100 degrees.

I found this data at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/CLIMO/dfw/dfwclimo.html

[CaptinCrunch]

I expect a summer much like 1998, hot but not all summer long. If May can bring several good shots of rain much like what we just had then our summer may not be so severe, as drought can increase temps due to the lack of ground moisture.

[gboudx]

Man, I hope you're wrong about 1998. It was 4th all-time in terms of hottest average max temp(98.8) for the summer, 2nd on hottest average summer temp(88.3), #1 for highest average minimum temp(77.8), and #2 for most occurrences(56 days), and consecutive(29 days) of 100 or hotter.

[Portastorm]

Man, I hope you're wrong about 1998. It was 4th all-time in terms of hottest average max temp(98.8) for the summer, 2nd on hottest average summer temp(88.3), #1 for highest average minimum temp(77.8), and #2 for most occurrences(56 days), and consecutive(29 days) of 100 or hotter.

Yeah, I was gonna say something ... 1998 was brutally hot. We had a 63-day rainless period or something crazy like that here in Austin. I also remember it because in May we dealt with thick smoke from the Mexican agricultural fires. There were days when the air quality was so poor that kids were being held inside from recess.

I sure hope we don't see a 98-redux or something along those lines!