HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM ALVA... TO EL RENO...
TO DUNCAN...INCLUDING ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
TIMING...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 3 PM ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AFTER 3 PM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
IMPACTS...
HAIL AROUND THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 70 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
...PARTICULARLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALVA...TO WEATHERFORD...TO
WICHITA FALLS FROM 5 PM TO 9 PM.
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
RECOMMENDED ACTION...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHOULD CONSIDER THE NEED FOR EXTENDED OPERATIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM NEAR
ABILENE TO SOUTH OF DALLAS WILL LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE EAST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE DAY WITH THE
AIRMASS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY
OF THE DRYLINE...WITH INITIATION ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WEAKENING FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
HOWEVER... A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE WEAKENING FRONT AND DRYLINE. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS IF ONE OR MORE OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 2.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...95 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA
AND MULTIPLE SURFACE FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND
FIELDS WILL ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOST
DAYS.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY.
$$
MAXWELL/DA
Things might get fairly interesting tonight.
.
