Severe weather this week - Moderate Risk today (Great Lakes)

[CrazyC83]

Seems like just about everyone north of I-70 and east of the Rockies is under the gun for severe weather, either today or later this week. 30-hatched tomorrow and 30 on Wednesday (quite confident for a day 3 prediction!)...

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a derecho trying to develop in the Great Lakes and Northeast...

[conestogo_flood]

A derecho huh.

What about tornadoes? Does this look significant?

[CrazyC83]

A derecho huh.

What about tornadoes? Does this look significant?

Isolated, but not the main risk from my view.

[wxmann_91]

Isolated, but not the main risk from my view.

Concurred.

[CrazyC83]

They have a moderate risk of severe weather now tomorrow with 60% risk throughout the Great Lakes. (They just need to hatch that and we have a High Risk!)

Main threat area covers a fairly broad area of southern Wisconsin, all of Lower Michigan, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, northern and central Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania, western New York and southern Ontario.

A secondary threat area extends from much of Iowa into northern Missouri, much of Kansas and southern Nebraska.

As for today - there could be severe weather in the Midwest as well. Southern Minnesota and northern Iowa seems to be the main threat area - it shows 10% for tornadoes, so that could be the main threat.

Primary threat: damaging winds, including some of hurricane force possible. Some tornadoes are possible although it is not the main threat.

[chizniz16]

There goes your 60% risk. SPC is really having some problems this week. They completely blew todays outlook. Now they are quickly retreating their percentages for tomorrow because they know their ability to forcast is very poor.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah, this could very well bust at this point...

[dean]

i'm not so sure about a derecho, although the SPC did state that damaging winds would be a big threat, they are basing this off the thought that the storms that developed in IA/WI/MN today would move east throughout the night, creating a line and during the day tomorrow this line would intensify with day time heating. But since so far the storms in IA/WI/MN haven't developed, i'm not sure that we would see a squall line tomorrow, unless a weak line of storms develops later tonight,but even still it would take A LOT of instibility to intensify these storms to the levels the SPC had originally thought, so in my opinion, unless storms in the Midwest fire soon, i dont think that we are going to see as big of an event like originally thought.

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

There remains some uncertainty, as is the norm in derecho events, but this has the potential to be violent. The potential is there for destructive straight-line winds exceeding 110 mph (Category 3 hurricane intensity!). Tornadoes and large hail are also possible but not the main threat. The lack of confidence is preventing a Level 5 risk at this point but that could change. This is a potentially dangerous situation.

The main threat area includes southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, much of Lower Michigan, northern and central Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania, western New York and southern Ontario. A secondary threat area also exists in eastern Colorado, western Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle.

The biggest remaining question mark - will the daytime heating occur? That could make the difference between an average event and a legendary derecho that looks more like a major hurricane had hit.

[CrazyC83]

There goes your 60% risk. SPC is really having some problems this week. They completely blew todays outlook. Now they are quickly retreating their percentages for tomorrow because they know their ability to forcast is very poor.

They only dumped the 60 to prevent a Day 2 High Risk, which requires incredible confidence to boldly forecast...they have only done that once (April 7, 2006). The 45 is hatched.

[Droop12]

Whats gonna be the deal in Indianapolis tomorrow? I gotta lot of outside work to do tomorrow, Im sure the instability will be high, CAPES nearing 4000j/kg? And temps near 90. Do you guys see anything developing this far south, or will there be a cap in place? Just looking for opinions, the other day I was working outside and got caught in a huge hailstorm and 55mph winds, dont want that to happen again. Thanks for any opinions.

[wxmann_91]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

There remains some uncertainty, as is the norm in derecho events, but this has the potential to be violent. The potential is there for destructive straight-line winds exceeding 110 mph (Category 3 hurricane intensity!). Tornadoes and large hail are also possible but not the main threat. The lack of confidence is preventing a Level 5 risk at this point but that could change. This is a potentially dangerous situation.

The biggest remaining question mark - will the daytime heating occur? That could make the difference between an average event and a legendary derecho that looks more like a major hurricane had hit.

I don't really think tomorrow will be a historic derecho, dynamics are just a little lacking.

[tomboudreau]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

There remains some uncertainty, as is the norm in derecho events, but this has the potential to be violent. The potential is there for destructive straight-line winds exceeding 110 mph (Category 3 hurricane intensity!). Tornadoes and large hail are also possible but not the main threat. The lack of confidence is preventing a Level 5 risk at this point but that could change. This is a potentially dangerous situation.

The main threat area includes southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, much of Lower Michigan, northern and central Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania, western New York and southern Ontario. A secondary threat area also exists in eastern Colorado, western Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle.

The biggest remaining question mark - will the daytime heating occur? That could make the difference between an average event and a legendary derecho that looks more like a major hurricane had hit.

Hate to say it, but 110 is only Cat 2 Hurricane Force winds...as cat three starts at 115. I know its 111 to make it a cat 3 storm, but in reality, when the advisories are issued, they don't say its a 111 mile per hour wind, they say its a 115.

[wxmann_91]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

There remains some uncertainty, as is the norm in derecho events, but this has the potential to be violent. The potential is there for destructive straight-line winds exceeding 110 mph (Category 3 hurricane intensity!). Tornadoes and large hail are also possible but not the main threat. The lack of confidence is preventing a Level 5 risk at this point but that could change. This is a potentially dangerous situation.

The main threat area includes southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, much of Lower Michigan, northern and central Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania, western New York and southern Ontario. A secondary threat area also exists in eastern Colorado, western Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle.

The biggest remaining question mark - will the daytime heating occur? That could make the difference between an average event and a legendary derecho that looks more like a major hurricane had hit.

Hate to say it, but 110 is only Cat 2 Hurricane Force winds...as cat three starts at 115. I know its 111 to make it a cat 3 storm, but in reality, when the advisories are issued, they don't say its a 111 mile per hour wind, they say its a 115.

He wrote exceeding 110 mph, no problem though, everybody misreads at least once in a while

[tomboudreau]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

There remains some uncertainty, as is the norm in derecho events, but this has the potential to be violent. The potential is there for destructive straight-line winds exceeding 110 mph (Category 3 hurricane intensity!). Tornadoes and large hail are also possible but not the main threat. The lack of confidence is preventing a Level 5 risk at this point but that could change. This is a potentially dangerous situation.

The main threat area includes southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, much of Lower Michigan, northern and central Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania, western New York and southern Ontario. A secondary threat area also exists in eastern Colorado, western Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle.

The biggest remaining question mark - will the daytime heating occur? That could make the difference between an average event and a legendary derecho that looks more like a major hurricane had hit.

Hate to say it, but 110 is only Cat 2 Hurricane Force winds...as cat three starts at 115. I know its 111 to make it a cat 3 storm, but in reality, when the advisories are issued, they don't say its a 111 mile per hour wind, they say its a 115.

He wrote exceeding 110 mph, no problem though, everybody misreads at least once in a while

Yup he did. My bad.

[conestogo_flood]

What is happening? I am not getting any good information from the media on this. The Weather Network says nothing out of the ordinary today, but you guys are going on about tornadoes and derechos and high risks.

[tomboudreau]

The threat appears to be mostly across Southern Michigan, Northwestern Ohio, Indiana, Illinios, Southern Wisconsin, and Eastern Iowa. This is where the moderate risk is sitting right now...and around this moderate risk, there is a slight risk that extends basically from the Rockies east to New York. Not sure how this is all going to evolve this afternoon.

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
MNC075-211730-
/O.NEW.KDLH.TO.W.0005.060621T1653Z-060621T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1153 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1149 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WHYTE...OR
ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE DEVELOPING TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FINLAND BY 1210 PM...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING IN
AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR SMALL ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR
PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4746 9163 4729 9160 4735 9102 4769 9107

$$

BRANDT