Wet Times Ahead In SE Texas.Good Discussion

[KFDM Meteorologist]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ON THE WAY...

.DISCUSSION...
VERY CONCERNING SET OF 12Z MODEL RUNS TODAY. EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROFFINESS IN THE WESTERN GULF SET TO BEGIN
COMING INLAND SUNDAY AND INCREASE EVEN MORE ON MONDAY - AND PERSIST
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. HERE`S A TABLE DEPICTING MODEL
AVERAGE PW VALUES IN SE TX THIS MIDWEEK:

SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
GFS 2.0-2.2" 2.3-2.4" 2.3-2.4" 2.1-2.3" 2.1-2.4" 1.7-2.3"
NAM 2.0-2.4" 2.2-2.4" 2.1-2.3"

THE HIGH PW VALUES SHOWN ABOVE ARE KNOWN TO PRODUCE THE TORRENTIAL
2-4"/HR RAINFALL RATES DESPITE WHETHER THERE IS A BOUNDARY TO WORK
OFF OF OR NOT. AND AS WE ALL VERY WELL KNOW - EVEN WITHOUT A
DISTINCT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE TO ACT AS A TRIGGER/FOCUS - WEAK
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FREQUENTLY DEVELOP IN THE WEAK FLOW REGIMES
LIKE WE ARE IN (OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, SEABREEZE/BAYBREEZE, ETC).
EXTREMELY CONCERNED ABOUT THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO PLAYING OUT AND
WOULD NOT DOUBT IF LOCALIZED 8-12+ INCH AMOUNTS OCCURRED SOMEWHERE
IN OUR CWA DURING THE NEXT 2-5 DAYS...AND POSSIBLY IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS ALSO FAVORING A
HEAVY RAIN EVENT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW IN W TX IS FCST TO SLOWLY
GET PUSHED BACK EASTWARD TOWARD US EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN (THOUGH MODELS NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT
ON PLACEMENT/TIMING JUST YET).

UNFORTUNATELY...WITHOUT SEEING SOMETHING MORE DISTINCT...WE`RE JUST
NOT ABLE TO PINPOINT THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA ATTM. SUSPECT WE`LL END
UP NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH IN THE 18-24 HOURS...BUT THINK WE`LL
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO LOOK AT ANOTHER 1-2 SETS OF FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO
SEE IF ANYTHING CHANGES OR WE CAN NARROW DOWN THE THREAT AREA.
ANTICIPATE DECREASED PRECIP COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY START OUT SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH PRECIP BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH DAYTIME HEATING (CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
80S). PROBABLY HAVE A SIMILAR DIURNAL PATTERN OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL IF/WHEN THE UPPER LOW GETS A BIT CLOSER AND CORE RAINS
BECOME A CONCERN.

THOUGH SOME AREAS WILL GET A GOOD SOAKING ON SUN - MOST CONCERNED
ABOUT MON/TUE AT THIS TIME. WILL WORRY ABOUT THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEK LATER AS DETAILS ARE BOUND TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...BUT
THE PRECIP FOCUS MAY SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BEYOND THURS AS A
WEAK FRONT BACKDOORS INTO N/NE TX AND POSSIBLY PROVIDES A LLVL
FOCUS. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATED HWO LATER THIS AFTN. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE SURGE (AS INDICATED EARLIER BY GFS) TODAY RESULTED IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA SOUTHERN HALF OF CWFA...AFFECTING
GLS/LBX AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IAH/HOU. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET LEAVING BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT LIGHT FOG TO AFFECT TAF SITES
TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY LBX. CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP AGAIN
(EARLIER FOR GLS AND LBX) IN THE MORNING. 37

&&

.MARINE...
WITH PW VALUES CREEPING UP AND STAYING HIGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
AND WITH A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS...WE CAN
EXPECT A CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA/SHRA FOR THE WATERS. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. COASTAL WATERS WAVE HEIGHTS
REMAINING BELOW SCEC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 37

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 88 74 87 74 / 50 70 50 80 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 87 76 86 77 / 50 80 60 80 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 87 81 86 81 / 50 80 60 80 60

&&

[KFDM Meteorologist]

We had the same setup two weeks ago. What's scary is the upper low over Texas actually starts moving east then stalls near the area next week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, I just posted this in my "Rainy weather for SE Texas" thread. It is scary to think another flood event may be on the way.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Could happen over the next several days.

[EastTxGal]

We are finally getting rain in my area. The rain missed us a couple of weeks ago. I don't want floods or severe weather, just a few days of a nice soaking rain. You guys stay safe on the coast.

[chadtm80]

[chadtm80]

Active watches and warnings for texas

[southerngale]

NWS has bumped our 60% chance of heavy rain over the next several days to 80% and 70%

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
323 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-021100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
323 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

...HEAVY RAIN FORECAST THIS WEEK...

WIDESPREAD AREAS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE COURSE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE OVER
TEN INCHES OF RAIN.

THE LOCATIONS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL
BE FROM BEAUMONT TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY THIS WEEK. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THIS LOW. AS THESE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE SEA
BREEZE...THEY WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM TO PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
ON THIS SITUATION. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
305 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE BIG NEWS TODAY IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING NOT ONLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES REGIONS...BUT POSSIBLY LARGE QPF VALUES AS WELL.

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EASILY SEEN BY SATELLITE...BUT IT IS NOT SEEN TOO WELL BY SURFACE REPORTS. 500MB CHARTS DEPICT A SMALL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE LOUISIANA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND A MORE WIDESPREAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN
TEXAS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

EXACT LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CAN NOT BE PINPOINTED RIGHT NOW...BUT THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES REGIONS HAVE THE GREATEST RISK.

A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO FLOOD EVENTS...MAY 29TH AND JUNE 19TH...WE ARE EXPECTING TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAME REGION FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE AREA WIDE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES IN A MATTER OF A FEW HOURS.

[bvigal]

Ugh! Sounds like a wet 4th... bummer!!

Hope there's not any bad flooding.

[Yankeegirl]

I dont mind the rain for the 4th... I am always worried about all the fireworks catching the roof of my house on fire or the dead leaves and such...

[swampdude]

I doubt we will be able to get any fireworks lit over the next 3 days! It is amazing how we have gone from near drought conditions to extremely soggy in about 4 weeks! Ah....Southeast Texas weather, gotta love it!

[Swimdude]

Wet 4th of July.

KPRC Channel 2 has the following forecast:

Sunday - 30% chance of rain at sunrise / 50% at Noon / 80% by 3:00 p.m.
Monday - 80%
Tuesday - 80%
Wednesday - 50%
Thursday - 50%
Friday - 40%
Saturday - 40%

YUCK!

[Extremeweatherguy]

look at this bullseye of rain the 00Z GFS shows for tomorrow evening in SE Texas = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml

The NAM shows the same for Monday evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml

And here is the GFS for 4th of July evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

NAM for 4th of July evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

[southerngale]

I should be a long-range forecaster. lol


Posted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 8:04 pm

It's feast or famine here. We were in a really bad drought just over a month ago, hoping for rain like you. Oddly enough, our 3 biggest rains and 2 of the recent floods occurred on holidays...Mother's Day, Memorial Day, and Father's Day. I don't think I'll bother to plan a BBQ for the 4th of July.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... ly#1346473

[bob rulz]

As if you guys down there didn't need anymore rain and flooding.

Hoping for the best down there.

[KatDaddy]

From the Houston-Galveston Forecast Disc:

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BIG RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SPINNING OVER WEST TEXAS. A
TREMENDOUS SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT GALVESTON TO BROWNSVILLE. 850 MB
DEW POINTS ARE BETWEEN 13-15C. A BLOCKING HIGH IS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THIS WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE CHANNEL OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS. 250 MB WINDS ARE DIVERGENT OVER THE REGION
WITH A 55 KNOT SPEED MAX DEPARTING PUTTING SE TEXAS IN A RIGHT
REAR QUAD. MIGHT HAVE JUMPED THE GUN ON THE FLOOD WATCH TODAY BUT
SOME SPOTS PICKED UP 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY IN PLACE.

DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...CORE NIGHT-TIME RAINS
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE. MESO-SCALE INFLUENCES WILL DICTATE WHERE
THESE RAINS MIGHT DEVELOP. MONDAY IS LOOKING DOWNRIGHT SCARY. PW`S
WILL INCREASE TO LEVELS I HAVE NEVER SEEN BEFORE. THE GFS IS
FORECASTING PW`S ON MONDAY TO REACH 2.68 INCHES OVER OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES. THESE VALUES ARE OFF THE CHART FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE NAM IS A MORE CONSERVATIVE 2.40 INCHES (SARCASM DULY
NOTED). WITH THE UPPER LOW PROVIDING THE NECESSARY DIVERGENCE AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S...FEEL WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY. THIS RAIN WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE GFS/NAM FAVORING
HEAVY RAIN OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE
MUCH AS PW`S REMAIN AOA 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
FOURTH OF JULY LOOKS TO BE A WASH-OUT AS PW`S REMAIN 2.1 TO 2.3
INCHES AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 80S. ACTIVITY ON
TUESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING...THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AND MAYBE AREA PARKS
WILL BE ABLE TO PUT ON A FIREWORKS DISPLAY. THAT SAID...THE NEXT
12-72 HOURS WILL BE VERY WET WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF FLOODING
RAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 43

[Extremeweatherguy]

that downright scary statement is, well, DOWNRIGHT SCARY!!! PW's they have never seen before? That is amazing!

[vbhoutex]

The info I'm getting says basicaaly-get the boat and oars ready!!! I don't like what I am hearing!!!! One Aliison like scenario a lifetime is quite enough thank you. We had 1.11" of rain here at the house yesterday. We can wait a few days for some more.

[Extremeweatherguy]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 021442
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 AM CDT SUN JUL 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SE TX KIND OF IN A DONUT HOLE RIGHT NOW REGARDING THE CLOUD/RAIN
SITUATION. HOWEVER IT SHOULDN`T LAST LONG. AS BREAKS OF SUN WARM
TEMPS TO THE CONVECTIVE TEMP (LOWER 80S) EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GPS SOUNDER DATA SHOWING
PW`S IN THE 2-2.1" RANGE. THESE SHOULD ALSO BE INCREASING THRU THE
DAY...ESP SW PARTS OF SE TX. CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL JUST
UPDATE THE ZFP TO REMOVE THE MORNING WORDING. EXPECT TO EXTEND THE
FLOOD WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE... 47

[TexasStooge]

And it looks like some of that rain may be heading to North Texas this week.