Holy crap!

[dean]

look at the sounding out of MPX at midnight. LI's up to -9 and cape in excess of 4000! this might not be uncommon for TX/OK, but we're talking about central Minnesota! a pretty strong cold front is moving through my area, so with any luck, we'll have a fun night and or day tomorrow.

[wxmann_91]

Not at all unusual. With temps and dewpoints this high, it really isn't a surprise to see that type of a 'loaded gun' sounding, even at midnight. Of course, under a ridge, you've got inhibition and limited lift, which is keeping things in check right now.

[Jim Cantore]

Not at all unusual. With temps and dewpoints this high, it really isn't a surprise to see that type of a 'loaded gun' sounding, even at midnight. Of course, under a ridge, you've got inhibition and limited lift, which is keeping things in check right now.

It's happened all month here


July 2nd: Event, Bow Echo, Cause 90 Degrees + 65-70 dew points
July 4th: Event, Bow Echo, Cause, 90 degrees + 65-70 dew points
July 18th: Event, Bow Echo, Cause 104 degrees + 67 dew point
July 22nd: Event, Severe storm, Cause 85 degrees + 65 dew point
July 21st: Event, Severe storm, Cause High humidity kicked up by Beryl
July 27th-28th: Event 3 severe storms, cause, 90 degree temps, 70-75 dew points

it's been happening... often

6 in the last 11 days

[WindRunner]

SPC just upgraded to a MOD risk for the area around the ND/SD/MN corner, with a 45% wind/hatched 30% hail/5% tor for the area, as well as a tornado watch up, as "rapid severe thunderstorm development is expected" in the next couple of hours. It's going to be a volatile situation if/when the storms start to fire.

[WindRunner]

Link to the KABR RUC2 sounding for 20Z. LI is -7 and CAPE tops 5000 (and tops 6000 by 23Z), and the low-level shear is quite impressive.

Java-based soundings 20Z-23Z

[wxmann_91]

Today's situation is a much more volatile situation. We have a boundary draped across the MN/ND/SD border which is setting up conditions favorable for strong to violent tornadoes. Take a look at this ob plot and you'll see what I'm talking about:



Talk about moisture pooling and backing of winds along the OFB!! That will seriously

a) lower LCL's
b) enhance SRH and CAPE/EHI

If we can have sfc-based initation that rides along the boundary, that area will need to be watched.

[CrazyC83]

Wow! This is a lot more serious than I first thought! At first I thought the MDT was unnecessary...I guess not!

[dean]

a temp of 91 and a TDD of only 12! look for some VERY high tops if these storms fire.

[wxmann_91]

Despite the INSANE parameters, it looks like the cap may win again. CU are failing to form, and CINH is once again increasing as the boundary layer begins to decouple tonight.

EDIT: BTW, latest Mesoanalysis showing 7500 SBCAPE, 250 0-1 km SRH, and 0-1 km EHI's of 13 (0-3 km EHI's of over 20!) in northeastern SD. Ahh, the miracles of moisture pooling!

[WindRunner]

There is a little precip in southern ND right now, which has a whole ONE lightning strike, but that's in the little CU bank. Looks like it's a fizzle . . .

[CrazyC83]

Yeah looks like the cap will take over. There is nothing happening! Could be a bust, folks!

[CrazyC83]

That MDT definitely busted...perhaps the biggest bust this year?

[dean]

That MDT definitely busted...perhaps the biggest bust this year?

nope, believe it or not, we've had bigger moderate risk busts here in the Twin Cities this year, one day that included a 10% risk for tornadoes and a 30% risk for hail for i think 2 outlooks, and then everything that was forecasted to happen in the Twin Cities in those two outlooks was shifted way to the south into Iowa.

[wxmann_91]

We've had some major busts in this crappy year, today's was definitely not the biggest. Lots of cap busts lately with unbelievable instability and low lever shear.

[CrazyC83]

That MDT definitely busted...perhaps the biggest bust this year?

nope, believe it or not, we've had bigger moderate risk busts here in the Twin Cities this year, one day that included a 10% risk for tornadoes and a 30% risk for hail for i think 2 outlooks, and then everything that was forecasted to happen in the Twin Cities in those two outlooks was shifted way to the south into Iowa.

Yes, but they produced severe weather elsewhere - this one did nothing at all.

[dean]

That MDT definitely busted...perhaps the biggest bust this year?

nope, believe it or not, we've had bigger moderate risk busts here in the Twin Cities this year, one day that included a 10% risk for tornadoes and a 30% risk for hail for i think 2 outlooks, and then everything that was forecasted to happen in the Twin Cities in those two outlooks was shifted way to the south into Iowa.

Yes, but they produced severe weather elsewhere - this one did nothing at all.

not yet, but it is still possible that the front may trigger storms in central MN early in the morning.

[wxmann_91]

That MDT definitely busted...perhaps the biggest bust this year?

nope, believe it or not, we've had bigger moderate risk busts here in the Twin Cities this year, one day that included a 10% risk for tornadoes and a 30% risk for hail for i think 2 outlooks, and then everything that was forecasted to happen in the Twin Cities in those two outlooks was shifted way to the south into Iowa.

Yes, but they produced severe weather elsewhere - this one did nothing at all.

Usually in such volatile situations something has to give, even if it is in the middle of the night. This is what's going on right now. A strengthening LLJ has provided sufficient lift for parcels to break through the cap, reach their LFC, and thus initiate convection.

Got a couple of TOR's and supercells in the Duluth area now. Of course, I'm betting that with the decoupled boundary layer and nearly 0 SBCAPE, along with -500 CINH ( ), tornadoes aren't going to develop. Nevertheless, these cells pose a threat of high winds and large hail.

EDIT: Just now a tornado was reported and a tornado watch was issued. LOL.

[dean]

ok, once again, high LI's and CAPE in excess of 4000 from MPX, except this time, we have nice directional shear! i mean, look at it! and heck, the speed shear isn't half bad either! why does the front have to be just too far north?

[WindRunner]

The directional shear was better yesterday afternoon, with similar speeds. I don't think today will be any better than yesterday unless the cap is weaker (or the storms stronger). SPC is hilighting the northern MN/WI/MI area with 30% hail, which probably has a better chance of verifying today than anything yesterday.

[conestogo_flood]

That tornado watch that was issued for Duluth area was still a bust too.