Houston radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=HGX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
NWS forecast for Houston:
Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Some of the storms could be severe, with heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 102. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming southeast. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tonight: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind around 5 mph.
Monday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. East wind between 5 and 10 mph. [/code]
NWS forecast discussion:
THE UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT SE TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. EARLY THIS MORNING THE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE
SE LA COAST. THE GFS AND NAM HANDLED THE SYSTEM A BIT DIFFERENTLY
AND THE NAM LOOKED UNREALISTIC IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN THE
GULF IN MOVING IT ONSHORE AND IN ITS AGGRESSIVE HANDLING OF THE
REMNANTS OF CHRIS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LIKED THE GFS WITH
THE HIGHER PW/S THOUGH LIKE THE NAM IT MAY HAVE THE UPPER LOW A
BIT TOO FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING.
WITH THAT IN MIND...THE MAIN FORECAST ITEM OF CONCERN FOR TODAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FORECASTED PW/S NEAR 2.3 AND THE
PRESENCE OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. (A PW OF 2.3 IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH LCH AND CRP FOR THE FIRST PART OF
AUGUST.) WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
IN THE THE MODEL RUNS LATER TODAY AS TO CONTINUING THE MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR MONDAY. THE COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME AT
LEAST 60 PERCENT BY MIDDAY TODAY AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
IS REACHED. THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE A BIT LESS
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE WAS
MORE UNCERTAINTY ON MONDAY FOR COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS.
WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY. THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW MAY HELP
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS. SEE THE SPC DISCUSSION
AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE EVEN LESS COVERAGE AS THE UPPER LOW DISSIPATES
AND THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS MOVING TOWARD AR...NORTHERN
LA...AND EASTERN TX. ONLY EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PROVIDE ANY
RAINFALL AFTER WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER
TODAY AND MONDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER. A RETURN TO THE HEAT OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL OCCUR BY WEDNESDAY.
Houston HWO:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
856 AM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-071400-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
856 AM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED. ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONG STORMS THAT OCCUR
REPEATEDLY OVER ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
ISOLATED WATERPOUTS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.
.DAY THREE...MONDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD
OVER THE STATE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED. ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.
SPC outlook for August 6th:
..SERN TX/SRN LA...
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND TX COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND BAND OF ENHANCED CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LARGE NWWD
MOVING MID/UPPER LOW MAY SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL STORMS
PRODUCING WET DOWNBURSTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE.
I guess we will have to see how things play out today, but it looks like things are set up to become quite interesting later this afternoon. Feel free to discuss the heavy rain and severe threat, as well as report severe weather in the SE Texas area in this thread.
