Potential for a bomb in the Great Lakes next week?

[wxmann_91]

Well, instead of just talking about it with the Houstonias and Texas, why not open a new topic for everyone?

Nearly all the Globals amplify a huge trough over the Great Lakes, in addition the GFS predicts a 969 bomb (not that I'm trusting it) over the Great Lakes.

IF this verifies, we may see one or many of the following:
1) Severe wx in the form of squall line or tornado outbreak (although lather seems unlikely right now due to minimal instability and unidirectional shear profiles)
2) Lake Effect Snow
3) Severe non-thunderstorm damaging winds
4) Storm Surge from Great Lakes
5) Ice
6) Blizzard conditions
7) Record cold temperatures

[JonathanBelles]

Blizzard season i believe will begin in the next month, but i didnt think it would happen this soon

[Extremeweatherguy]

Last year there was an early historic blizzard in Montana and the Dakotas on October 5th...but this year's looks like it could be worse due to the fact it may reach further south! Could get interesting! I believe Chicago and Minneapolis may also get hit hard by this one too.

[Scorpion]

I think this is way too hyped up. This is still 6 days out. I have a strong feeling that it will not be anywhere near as major as currently advertised in the model runs. It's still early October.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think this is way too hyped up. This is still 6 days out. I have a strong feeling that it will not be anywhere near as major as currently advertised in the model runs. It's still early October.

its actually now showing this starting as early as 4-5 days out, so it is not that far off anymore.

[conestogo_flood]

Weather forecast ain't calling for thunderstorms or snow.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weathe ... ON0356.htm

Just rain and a huge temp fall this week.

[azsnowman]

This is even mentioned in MY NWS AFD:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE WATERS JUST WEST OF THE CALIF/BAJA COAST AS AN INTENSE LOW FORMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MID-WEST REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARIZONA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MODEL BRINGS THE CALIFORNIA LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GOOD MOISTURE TAP. WILL WAIT FOR MORE AGREEMENT ON WHAT THIS LOW WILL DO BEFORE ADDING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED.

[Cyclenall]

It's about time this thread was posted! I was waiting to see when it was going to be created. I knew wxmann_91 would start it.

I have been closely watching this along with other weather freaks and I'm still not exactly sure what will happen at what time.

My question is: What will Southern Ontario get out of this? Will we get lots of lake effect snow? What range of temps will we see? High winds? Thunderstorms?

6) Blizzard conditions

I sure hope Southern Ontario gets that! However, i'm not getting my hopes up since this event is still less then a week away. I'm not even sure if it's possible but hopefully we will get lots of blowing snow.

I think this is way too hyped up. This is still 6 days out. I have a strong feeling that it will not be anywhere near as major as currently advertised in the model runs. It's still early October.

I don't think it's too hyped up but the reason why it was and is hyped is because if it really happens, then it would be weather history in the making. I really hope this happens since extreme weather is always fun and never dull. I wonder what kind of chaos would occur....

Weather forecast ain't calling for thunderstorms or snow.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weathe ... ON0356.htm

Just rain and a huge temp fall this week.

I know, I think they are just waiting until the event gets closer.

The latest run shows the low pressure system more north into Canada. How does this change things?

[Icey455]

Well the forecast in madison wendsday through friday shows a rain/snow mix. It could go either way at this point. Interesting times are upon us. http://www.wkowtv.com/index.php/weather/today

[wxmann_91]

Sorry to say this Cyclenall, but I don't think you will be one getting the blizzard conditions.

The blizzard conditions would be under any Lake Effect Snow bands that can develop. I think that if this verifies, areas downwind of Lake Superior and northern portions of Lake Michigan could be pwned. Meanwhile, southern Ontario would still be over the warm sector.

Latest 0Z run is significantly more north and weaker with the storm, as expected. Still progged to be a doozy for the Great Lakes.

[Cyclenall]

Sorry to say this Cyclenall, but I don't think you will be one getting the blizzard conditions.

Damn, well it was a long shot anyways.

The blizzard conditions would be under any Lake Effect Snow bands that can develop.

So the system would not cause any harsh conditions in the snow belt area of Southern Ontario (Lake Huron)? We get bad lake effect snow in the winter so does it come down to where the system ultimately goes?

I think that if this verifies, areas downwind of Lake Superior and northern portions of Lake Michigan could be pwned. Meanwhile, southern Ontario would still be over the warm sector.

Lake Huron left out of the lake effect snow ? And when you say warm sector your talking about the air temps right?

[wxmann_91]

Oops I should not have assumed...

Do you live in western or eastern Ontario?

[wxmann_91]

And when you say warm sector your talking about the air temps right?

Yes. The heart of the cold air may not make it to your area as lake temperatures are still quite warm. In fact, after reviewing the 0Z GFS further, probably only Lake Superior's going to have substantial Lake effect.

150 hr GFS shows the force field created by the relatively warm lakes:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150m.gif

[Cyclenall]

Oops I should not have assumed...

Do you live in western or eastern Ontario?

I live in Southern Ontario.

Since if you live in western Ontario then you will get LES, and maybe get awfully close to blizzard conditions under a band. Assuming that it gets cold enough (and it may not).

Well I don't live in Eastern Ontario (Thunder bay area?). Do you know if there is any chance Lake Huron could give Southern Ontario LES?

Yes. The heart of the cold air may not make it to your area as lake temperatures are still quite warm. In fact, after reviewing the 0Z GFS further, probably only Lake Superior's going to have substantial Lake effect.

150 hr GFS shows the force field created by the relatively warm lakes:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150m.gif

This sucks. Well Southern Ontario is still suppose to have a decent cold spell on Friday. The good thing about warm lake temps is good LES or so I heard.

[wxmann_91]

Oops I should not have assumed...

Do you live in western or eastern Ontario?

I live in Southern Ontario.

I meant western portions of southern Ontario (Windsor/Tecumseh) or eastern portions (Kingston/Brockville) or middle (Toronto/Hamilton/London).

Since if you live in western Ontario then you will get LES, and maybe get awfully close to blizzard conditions under a band. Assuming that it gets cold enough (and it may not).

Well I don't live in Eastern Ontario (Thunder bay area?). Do you know if there is any chance Lake Huron could give Southern Ontario LES?

I deleted that part. I don't think there will be LES even in those parts after reviewing latest run. Lake effect rain, maybe.

[Cyclenall]

I deleted that part. I don't think there will be LES even in those parts after reviewing latest run. Lake effect rain, maybe.

That sounds mightily boring. Goodness, I hope your wrong or I hope the model(s) do something differently. Problem is, I doubt it .

[WindRunner]

While it still looks to be a potent storm, don't buy on to a "historic" monster of a storm. Upper 980s is still possible, though. Definately a good shot of cooler air to the Plains and the East is in the works.

[conestogo_flood]

I live about the same direction from Lake Huron, Lake Ontario and Lake Erie... in the middle of central southern Ontario.

[wxmann_91]

Why was this moved to Weather Attic?

I specifically opened this up for discussion across the eastern 1/3 of the continent... not for one exact city or region.