
SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday
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- Extremeweatherguy
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SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Tue Nov 14, 2006 3:52 pm, edited 14 times in total.
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- Yankeegirl
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Good Morning,
I am in the very southernmost part of Walker County(halfway between Conroe and Huntsville), just a couple of miles west of I-45. The front hasn't made it here, yet. It's been raining steadily for several hours, but the temp is currently 70 (1:15 am). We've been lucky, with no severe weather, only sporadic thunder. I'm getting very concerned about the flooding potential. It is highly unusual to get the steady downpours, we've received.
I am in the very southernmost part of Walker County(halfway between Conroe and Huntsville), just a couple of miles west of I-45. The front hasn't made it here, yet. It's been raining steadily for several hours, but the temp is currently 70 (1:15 am). We've been lucky, with no severe weather, only sporadic thunder. I'm getting very concerned about the flooding potential. It is highly unusual to get the steady downpours, we've received.
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- Yankeegirl
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- Yankeegirl
- Category 5
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- Extremeweatherguy
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- Location: Florida
I woke up around 6:15 and it was 60 degrees outside. It's now 8 in the morning and the temp has dropped to 57 with a stiff northwest wind! Now this is what I'm talking about! I don't see us getting up to 69 degrees which is currently forecasted for my area. We've got a steady breeze out of the NNW from 10 to 15 mph and steady overcast for most of the day.
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Will chances for rain ever end for SE TX? We did not get much rainfall yesterday from Houston south toward the coast.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
635 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
635 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME RESIDUAL FLOODING FROM
RAINFALL EARLIER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER POLK...SAN JACINTO...AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAY TWO...FRIDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS THREE AND FOUR...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RAIN WILL COME TO
AN END SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS FIVE THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTER A DRY MONDAY...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
635 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
635 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME RESIDUAL FLOODING FROM
RAINFALL EARLIER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER POLK...SAN JACINTO...AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAY TWO...FRIDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS THREE AND FOUR...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RAIN WILL COME TO
AN END SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS FIVE THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTER A DRY MONDAY...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- vbhoutex
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Johnny wrote:I woke up around 6:15 and it was 60 degrees outside. It's now 8 in the morning and the temp has dropped to 57 with a stiff northwest wind! Now this is what I'm talking about! I don't see us getting up to 69 degrees which is currently forecasted for my area. We've got a steady breeze out of the NNW from 10 to 15 mph and steady overcast for most of the day.
That 69º was hit around whatever time the front came through. The temp will be dropping all day at a slow clip or remain nearly the same temp it is at this time.
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- southerngale
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
I'm looking forward to drier skies and cooler temps. Water is everywhere! Village Creek is causing major flooding and has exceeded its flood record of 27.6 feet. It was at 28.0 feet early this morning and still rising. Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
Many roads and highways are underwater and unpassable around here, as well as houses that have flooded.
Pine Island Bayou was at 30.5 feet this morning...flood stage is 25.0 feet. Homes in the Pinewood subdvision and Bevil Oaks have water in them and many streets are flooded. High water covers the bridge leading in and out of Pinewood.
Many school districts in the area are closed...some have just been starting later in the morning.
Hardin and Tyler counties are asking for the counties to be declared a disaster area.
This has really been a bad, widespread flooding event in Southeast and East Texas.
Many roads and highways are underwater and unpassable around here, as well as houses that have flooded.
Pine Island Bayou was at 30.5 feet this morning...flood stage is 25.0 feet. Homes in the Pinewood subdvision and Bevil Oaks have water in them and many streets are flooded. High water covers the bridge leading in and out of Pinewood.
Many school districts in the area are closed...some have just been starting later in the morning.
Hardin and Tyler counties are asking for the counties to be declared a disaster area.
This has really been a bad, widespread flooding event in Southeast and East Texas.
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- JenBayles
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BRRRRRRR! Nearly froze myself walking the dogs this morning, and really froze going to the grocery store afterward. Can someone tell me why they have to blow the A/C at colder temps than the current 60 degrees outside? All the store employees were bundled up in jackets. Can you say, "Turn up the freakin' thermostat?"
What a bullet we dodged here in Houston, huh? Currently enjoying staying in and observing the cold windy day outside. Now what do I have in the kitchen to occupy my time.....

What a bullet we dodged here in Houston, huh? Currently enjoying staying in and observing the cold windy day outside. Now what do I have in the kitchen to occupy my time.....

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- Extremeweatherguy
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- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT THU OCT 19 2006
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IS ALLOWING FOR RAPID
CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF SE TX TONIGHT. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF
THE SEASON SO FAR. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER SE TX FRI/FRI EVENING
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPS.
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SE TX LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
RETURN NORTH INTO SE TX AS A WARM FRONT. PWS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS SRN HALF OF SE TX BY LATE SATURDAY. EXPECTING
TO SEE TWO ROUNDS OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST WILL
TAKE PLACE SATURDAY IN DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THE SECOND
WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES SE TX.
FORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL HELP
TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE (2+ INCH PWS) OFF THE
COAST FOR THIS EVENT. WILL GO 30 POPS BY SAT AFTN...THEN 40-50 POPS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE BY 18Z
SUNDAY SO EXPECT FAIRLY RAPID DRYING EARLY SUNDAY. SHEAR PROFILES DO
BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE BY SAT AFTN/EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS POINTED OUT IN THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...MODELS ARE
FORECASTING ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY
RISE A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD OVER SE TX SUN AFTN AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
COOL/DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.
NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM WILL AFFECT SE TX DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM. 12Z GFS PAINTS A RATHER OMINOUS SCENARIO WITH VERY DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHICH ALLOWS TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH INTO SE TX AND LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THE 12Z ECMWF...MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND THE CANADIAN SHOW THE
TROUGH DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST AND REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE. ANOTHER
WILD-CARD WILL BE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO...AND WHETHER OR NOT THIS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW HAVE BLANKETED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING TUESDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT
POPS/TEMPS BELOW 12Z MEXMOS GUIDANCE.
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- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
I am beginning to think that tonight may be colder than forecast. We have already dropped into the lower/middle 60s before sunset (62.6F on my thermometer at 6:35pm) and within the last two hours we have lowered our dewpoints by nearly 10F (from 55F at 4pm to 46F at 6pm). My prediction is for middle 40s (at least) in my area tonight for lows with upper 40s at IAH and lower 40s in Conroe.
The NWS will probably also lower their 49-52F lows another few degrees this evening if the trend continues.
BTW: A dewpoint reading of 46F was now forecast to reach us until 3am this morning here in Spring. We are way ahead of scehdule on our lowering dewpoints.
The NWS will probably also lower their 49-52F lows another few degrees this evening if the trend continues.
BTW: A dewpoint reading of 46F was now forecast to reach us until 3am this morning here in Spring. We are way ahead of scehdule on our lowering dewpoints.
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- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
Paradise EWG!
Perfect Houston weather. It was downright chilly with the downtown canyon effect.
Perfect Houston weather. It was downright chilly with the downtown canyon effect.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
8pm Temperatures and Dewpoints around area:
IAH = 63F/47F
Hooks = 60F/47F
Hobby = 65F/52F
Conroe = 58F/47F
College Station = 59F/43F
Brenham = 55F/43F
Galveston = 69F/56F
**At this rate...most areas north of I-10 should be well into the 50s by 9pm.**
Latest temperature on my thermometer = 58.6F
IAH = 63F/47F
Hooks = 60F/47F
Hobby = 65F/52F
Conroe = 58F/47F
College Station = 59F/43F
Brenham = 55F/43F
Galveston = 69F/56F
**At this rate...most areas north of I-10 should be well into the 50s by 9pm.**
Latest temperature on my thermometer = 58.6F
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