severe wx across central Gulf coast states

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Opal storm

severe wx across central Gulf coast states

#1 Postby Opal storm » Tue Nov 14, 2006 4:37 pm

Looks like a nice fall severe wx outbreak will be occuring in the deep South tonight and especially tomorrow.Tornado watch is up for most of LA right now.Large hail and damaging winds likely the biggest threat in storms.

Image

Mobile NWS Disc.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
EAST OF THE CENTRAL US ROCKIES DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY..ORGANIZING AT IT COMES...THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE...THEN START MOVING NORTH LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. QUESTION IS WHEN. HAVE A FEELING IT WILLS TART
WORKING ITS WAY NORTH AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW GETS REALLY STRONG. GFS IS ADVERTISING A BLOW UP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LA...BLOWING THE WINDS UP BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...AND AM LEANING
TOWARDS THE NAM TIMING IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BUILDING THROUGH THE
NIGHT BEFORE COMING TO A HEAD WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. DO FEEL THERE WILL
BE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE GET WITH THIS PRE-SQUALL LINE
SHOWERS MAY DELAY THE WARM FRONT CRAWLING NORTH LATER TONIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS/HAS BEGUN MOVING NORTH AS THE
STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. GFS
AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF A SQUALL LINE
CROSSING THE AREA...WITH THE LINE MOVING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA MID MORNING...SPLITTING THE FA IN HALF NOONTIME OR A BIT
AFTER....AND NEAR OR JUST PAST THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE FA BY
SUNSET. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING ENOUGH CAPE FOR STRONG
STORMS...AND ENOUGH HELICITY FOR ROTATION (STRONG ROTATION ACTUALLY).
ITS LOOKING LIKE WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE LINE
GOING THROUGH...THOUGH WITH THE HIGH HELICITIES EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL
SPINNERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.


FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WORST OF THE WEATHER SHOULD BASICALLY BE
OVER FOR MOST OF THE FA. THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE NEAR...BUT
BASICALLY EAST OF THE EASTERN BORDER BY THE BEGINNING OF WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EAST WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND INDUCED
SHOWERS NORTH. WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FA AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THE FA SHOULD CLEAR OUT
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS NORTHEASTWARD TREK AWAY
FROM THE FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY....WITH
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKING TO BE COLD...CLEAR NIGHT.
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Opal storm

#2 Postby Opal storm » Tue Nov 14, 2006 5:41 pm

I had been watching this cell for the past hour,not surprised by the warning.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA

* UNTIL 500 PM CST

* AT 427 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR VARNADO...
OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF BOGALUSA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS WILL BE NEAR...
ANGIE BY 435 PM CST

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3100 9002 3083 9002 3084 8979 3092 8976
3100 8977

$$

92/JSS
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Opal storm

#3 Postby Opal storm » Tue Nov 14, 2006 9:47 pm

Storm reports from today=

MOUNT HERMAN WASHINGTON LA 3096 9030 MOBILE HOME DAMAGED BY POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR MOUNT HERMAN. (LIX)

12 NE FRANKLINTON WASHINGTON LA 3097 9000 POSSIBLE TORNADO DOWNED TREES NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF THOMAS. (LIX)

CROSSROADS PEARL RIVER MS 3078 8977 POSSIBLE TORNADO DOWNED TREES ON HIGHWAY 43 NORTH OF INTERSECTION WITH HIGHWAY 26 IN CROSSROADS. (LIX)

MCNEIL PEARL RIVER MS 3067 8964 POSSIBLE TORNADO DOWNED TREES AT MILE MARKER 17 ON INTERSTATE 59. (LIX)

10 N FRANKLINTON WASHINGTON LA 3099 9014 BARNS LEVELLED IN NORTHWEST PORTION OF PARISH REPORTED BY SHERIFFS OFFICE. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (LIX)

POPLARVILLE PEARL RIVER MS 3084 8953 TREES DOWN IN POPLARVILLE. (LIX)
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