
Mobile NWS Disc.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
EAST OF THE CENTRAL US ROCKIES DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY..ORGANIZING AT IT COMES...THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE...THEN START MOVING NORTH LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. QUESTION IS WHEN. HAVE A FEELING IT WILLS TART
WORKING ITS WAY NORTH AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW GETS REALLY STRONG. GFS IS ADVERTISING A BLOW UP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LA...BLOWING THE WINDS UP BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...AND AM LEANING
TOWARDS THE NAM TIMING IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BUILDING THROUGH THE
NIGHT BEFORE COMING TO A HEAD WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. DO FEEL THERE WILL
BE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE GET WITH THIS PRE-SQUALL LINE
SHOWERS MAY DELAY THE WARM FRONT CRAWLING NORTH LATER TONIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS/HAS BEGUN MOVING NORTH AS THE
STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. GFS
AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF A SQUALL LINE
CROSSING THE AREA...WITH THE LINE MOVING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA MID MORNING...SPLITTING THE FA IN HALF NOONTIME OR A BIT
AFTER....AND NEAR OR JUST PAST THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE FA BY
SUNSET. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING ENOUGH CAPE FOR STRONG
STORMS...AND ENOUGH HELICITY FOR ROTATION (STRONG ROTATION ACTUALLY).
ITS LOOKING LIKE WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE LINE
GOING THROUGH...THOUGH WITH THE HIGH HELICITIES EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL
SPINNERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WORST OF THE WEATHER SHOULD BASICALLY BE
OVER FOR MOST OF THE FA. THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE NEAR...BUT
BASICALLY EAST OF THE EASTERN BORDER BY THE BEGINNING OF WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EAST WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND INDUCED
SHOWERS NORTH. WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FA AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THE FA SHOULD CLEAR OUT
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS NORTHEASTWARD TREK AWAY
FROM THE FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY....WITH
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKING TO BE COLD...CLEAR NIGHT.