Nov 16 Severe Weather On East Coast

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brunota2003
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Nov 16 Severe Weather On East Coast

#1 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Nov 15, 2006 7:03 pm

check this out:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
254 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER
SYSTEM TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNTIED STATES TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING SE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE
60S. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EVEN THEN ONLY A
LOW CHANCE.

I AM BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
MAIN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF INSOLATION
AND INCREASED DESTABILIZATION DOWN THROUGH THE SURFACE. LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT FALLS. FORECAST WINDS TO 60 KT AT 10 METERS AND 40 KT TO
1000 MB. THESE WINDS WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
LOOKS
LIKE A SQUALL LINE TYPE EVENT WITH ONE OR TWO LINES OF CONVECTION
MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR
WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS BUT SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE LINE(S)
WILL LIMIT AMOUNT SOME BUT STILL EXPECTING 1-1.5" MOST LOCATIONS
BY THURSDAY EVENING.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AROUND 00Z WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE ACROSS NC. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF BROKEN CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60.
60 knots at 33 feet above the surface? please tell me I'm reading that wrong...down here on the surface winds are forecasted to be 20-30 MPH with gusts around 38 or so...
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#2 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Nov 15, 2006 7:07 pm

Also, here is the Day 2 Outlook:
SPC AC 151730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
AMPLIFY FURTHER BEFORE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS
BY THURSDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OH EARLY
THURSDAY AND LIFT NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW SWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
NRN FL THURSDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EAST AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY.

...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE OH VALLEY...A STRONG 70 KT SLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ADVECT RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE GULF STREAM NWWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. DESPITE THE EXPECTED
INCREASE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUD AND WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND THIS COULD SERVE AS A
LIMITING FACTOR. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN
PROGRESS FROM PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL VA SWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITHIN
ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER FORCING DOWNSTREAM FROM
UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL EXIST WITHIN VERY STRONG LOW AND UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS CHARACTERIZED BY A 100+ KT UPPER JET AND A 70 KT
LOW LEVEL JET. LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LEWP AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE
LINE. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS AS THE LINE CONTINUES EAST.


...OH THROUGH WRN PA...

MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. SURFACE HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT
IN WAKE OF THICKER CLOUD SHIELD. POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER AIR ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY.
STORMS COULD REDEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SURFACE LOW AS VORT MAX LIFTS NWD. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN THIS REGION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING POTENTIAL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP ONLY 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED
TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 11/15/2006
So what are the chances of an outbreak tomorrow and is it possible a MDT area is issued?
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#3 Postby Tstormwatcher » Wed Nov 15, 2006 7:34 pm

I think we will see some strong staight line winds maybe upto 50mph and very heavy downpours. I highly doubt hail or tornadoes. But I could be wrong. :ggreen:
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#4 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Nov 15, 2006 7:47 pm

Tstormwatcher wrote:I think we will see some strong staight line winds maybe upto 50mph and very heavy downpours. I highly doubt hail or tornadoes. But I could be wrong. :ggreen:
You better be right...I like my house and weather equipment...:lol:
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#5 Postby WindRunner » Wed Nov 15, 2006 9:15 pm

Technically . . . since a hurricane's winds are supposed to be those at 10m . . . that's pretty darn near a hurricane there!


The important thing to remember is that the slightest bit of a downdraft will bring those 60kt winds down to the surface, and if a real thunderstorm can get cranking, then you've got yourself a high wind report for the SPC and a pretty black square to call your own.


As for the MDT, no, we never get MDT's in the Mid-Atlantic, though it could be close for you guys down in southern NC and SC. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 30-hatched wind for you guys, though a 45-hatched might be more appropriate.


Up here in VA it looks like we'll get all the rain (AFD says 1.5"-2", locally higher) and maybe a rumble of thunder if we're lucky. Not even anything more than a little breeze windwise, too. This is true for practically all of VA, so any MDT that might come out for you guys would have to be on the small side. Either way, this'll be the third big storm this month. I hope this one can pull its act together and get an "eye" going like the last one almost did.
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#6 Postby Jim Cantore » Wed Nov 15, 2006 10:59 pm

I'm taking observations starting now

10:57pm

Mostly cloudy
57.7 Degrees
Winds out of the East at 0-3mph gusting to 4-7mph
Pressure: 1011.5mb and steady

this is what it looked like at 3pm this afternoon
Image
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#7 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Nov 16, 2006 6:09 am

We are under a tornado watch until 11 AM here:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 866
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 420 AM UNTIL 1100 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
NORFOLK VIRGINIA TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF NEW BERN NORTH CAROLINA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 861...WW 863...WW
864...WW 865...

DISCUSSION...SQLN EXTENDING FROM E CNTRL NC INTO S CNTRL VA SHOULD
CONTINUE ENE AT APPROXIMATELY 35-40 KTS. INTENSE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 400 M2/S2...STRONG DEEP SHEAR AND
MODERATELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL ROTATION/POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21045.


...CORFIDI
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#8 Postby lester » Thu Nov 16, 2006 10:55 am

We're under a Tornado watch as well
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 868 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MARYLAND

ANNE ARUNDEL HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES

IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND

CARROLL FREDERICK

IN NORTHERN MARYLAND

BALTIMORE HARFORD

IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND

CALVERT CHARLES ST. MARYS

IN VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA

ALBEMARLE GREENE KING GEORGE ORANGE SPOTSYLVANIA

IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA

ARLINGTON CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER LOUDOUN PRINCE WILLIAM STAFFORD

IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA

MADISON RAPPAHANNOCK

IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 INDEPENDENT CITY

IN NORTHERN MARYLAND

BALTIMORE CITY

IN VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 INDEPENDENT CITIES

IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA

CHARLOTTESVILLE CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG

IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA

CITY OF ALEXANDRIA CITY OF FAIRFAX CITY OF FALLS CHURCH CITY OF MANASSAS CITY OF MANASSAS PARK

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF... ABERDEEN...ALEXANDRIA...ANNAPOLIS... ARLINGTON...BALTIMORE...BEL AIR... CHANTILLY...CHARLOTTESVILLE... CHARLOTTESVILLE...CHESAPEAKE BEACH... COLUMBIA...CULPEPER... DAHLGREN... EDGEWOOD...FAIRFAX...FALLS CHURCH... FALLSTON... FALMOUTH...FREDERICK... FREDERICKSBURG...GAITHERSBURG... HAVRE DE GRACE...JOPPATOWNE...LAUREL... LEESBURG...MADISON... MANASSAS... MANASSAS PARK...MCLEAN...ORANGE... RESTON... SPOTSYLVANIA COURTHOUSE...ST MARYS...STANARDSVILLE...STERLING... TOWSON...WALDORF...WARRENTON... WASHINGTON...WASHINGTON... WESTMINSTER AND WOODBRIDGE.
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#9 Postby lester » Thu Nov 16, 2006 11:18 am

23 MPH here..gusts SE at 30 mph
pressure 29.62 MB
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#10 Postby Bunkertor » Thu Nov 16, 2006 12:01 pm

Now Wakefield...hm...a well known place ?
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#11 Postby Tstormwatcher » Thu Nov 16, 2006 12:09 pm

We recently had a gust over 40mph. Not associated with any storms either.
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#12 Postby lester » Thu Nov 16, 2006 12:15 pm

Light Rain and Windy
Wind: From SSE at 28 mph
gusting to 35 mph
Humidity: 84%
Pressure: 29.56 in.
Dew Point: 64°F
Visibility: 5.0 miles
With these winds...I might not go to volunteer at the church today (I usually walk there)
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#13 Postby lester » Thu Nov 16, 2006 12:27 pm

1213 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR... DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND BALTIMORE CITY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND HARFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND ARLINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA CITY OF ALEXANDRIA IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ALEXANDRIA CITY OF FAIRFAX IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA CITY OF FALLS CHURCH IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA CITY OF MANASSAS IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA CITY OF MANASSAS PARK IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA * UNTIL 415 PM EST

* AT 1213 PM EST...RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE REGION...AND MORE ON THE WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ONE TO TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN SO FAR...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS OVER MONTGOMERY COUNTY AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA. ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL FALL THROUGH 400 PM. SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL OVERFLOW. ROAD FLOODING IS LIKELY... ESPECIALLY IN LOW SPOTS AND WHERE STORM DRAINS ARE CLOGGED.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES CARRIED AWAY BY RISING WATER. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM... EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. STAY AWAY FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES AND STORM DRAINS AS THEY CAN BECOME DEADLY TORRENTS AFTER HEAVY RAIN. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.
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#14 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 16, 2006 1:00 pm

Wow, I woke up and came home to wild weather still!

I am currently catching up on everything...
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#15 Postby Tstormwatcher » Thu Nov 16, 2006 2:06 pm

Wow, incredible storm movig through right now. Extremely heavy rain and winds in the 25 to 35mph range.
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#16 Postby Tstormwatcher » Thu Nov 16, 2006 2:23 pm

Well storm has moved on, winds have died down, and we ended up with .90 inches of rain in 15 minutes. :eek:
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#17 Postby lester » Thu Nov 16, 2006 2:26 pm

UPDATE:
Heavy Rain and Windy
Wind: From SE at 29 mph
gusting to 39 mph
Humidity: 89%
Pressure: 29.46 in.
Dew Point: 64°F
Visibility: 1.5 miles
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#18 Postby lester » Thu Nov 16, 2006 2:53 pm

Now A Flash Flood Warning for DC,PG County,Arlington County & Alexandria..
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#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 16, 2006 2:53 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CST THU NOV 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NY AND PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161824Z - 162030Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

A 90+ KT 500 MB JET STEAK CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AS A DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE
SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE LEADING EDGE OF
MID-LEVEL COOLING DOWNSTREAM OF EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE IS NOW
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING INTENSIFYING PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE LINE.

THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS IS BECOMING MOIST AND SATURATED. AND...
RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT COOLING ALOFT COULD
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR CAPE UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...BASED MOSTLY IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. LAPSE RATES NEAR THE
SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEUTRAL OR MINIMALLY UNSTABLE...AND
TORNADO POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN...DESPITE PRESENCE OF VERY LARGE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF 50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. HOWEVER...
STRENGTHENING DOWNDRAFTS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY COULD CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE. AND...AT LEAST AN INCREASING
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CONVECTIVE LINE COULD
OCCUR INTO/THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY 21-22Z.

..KERR.. 11/16/2006


ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

42567799 43347725 43957591 43997477 42247432 40127527
40017700 40087750 41217769
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#20 Postby lester » Thu Nov 16, 2006 3:23 pm

we've gotten 2.45 inches of rain so far...
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