Possible winter weather for MS??

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MississippiHurricane
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Possible winter weather for MS??

#1 Postby MississippiHurricane » Mon Nov 27, 2006 12:38 am

Latest HWO:

DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...RAIN
IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. IT IS THIS
COMBINATION OF COLD ARCTIC AIR AND POST FRONTAL RAIN THAT MAY
BRING A CHANGE OVER OF RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. IRREGARDLESS OF IF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DOES OR
DOES NOT OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR IS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL
INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...IF NOT COLDER.

AT THIS TIME...A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING IF
THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WHEN THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE. EVERYONE IS URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST DURING THE COMING WEEK CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR.


.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.


$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.




Hmmm I will keep watching because Friday is PAYDAY!!!!! :D
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#2 Postby Janie2006 » Mon Nov 27, 2006 8:21 am

Thats the $1000 question right now....when does the arctic airmass meet the precip and where? Too many variables at the moment to pinpoint exact locations or accumulations for this possible Southern winter event, especially for Mississippi.

That being said, model runs have been fairly consistent. Whether this means an Oxford/Memphis event, a Dekalb/Winona event, or even a Meridian/Jackson event (or all 3) remains up in the air.
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#3 Postby Lindaloo » Mon Nov 27, 2006 10:42 am

Well do not leave us out on the Gulf Coast. PUH-LEEZE! 8-)
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#4 Postby MGC » Mon Nov 27, 2006 10:57 pm

Looks like the core of the cold air should effect the I-20 area and to the north. Sorry Linda, no snow yet, but I'm hoping for a repeat of Christmas 2004....MGC
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#5 Postby Janie2006 » Tue Nov 28, 2006 8:53 am

Ja, sorry Linda...I'd like to see some of the frosty stuff too over in Mobile. However, MGC has a good handle on it. The core of the cold air passes to our north. Sigh.
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#6 Postby MississippiHurricane » Tue Nov 28, 2006 9:20 pm

LOL remember 1998? I had 8 inches of snow here in clinton. THAT was a shocker.... 10pm news said 20% chance of a FEW snow flurries nothing that would stick. I wake up the next moring and my power is out. Look at my window and nearly fell over!! It was MORE than a few flurries LOL
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#7 Postby Lindaloo » Tue Nov 28, 2006 10:07 pm

MGC wrote:Looks like the core of the cold air should effect the I-20 area and to the north. Sorry Linda, no snow yet, but I'm hoping for a repeat of Christmas 2004....MGC


Figures! Ah well, I will be waiting for another white Christmas.
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#8 Postby HarlequinBoy » Wed Nov 29, 2006 2:12 am

I live up in Tunica in NW MS, and here's the forecast from the NWS here:

Thursday Night: Periods of snow, freezing rain and sleet. Low around 31. Blustery, with a north northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.


But, it keeps changing. It was wintry mix a few days ago, back to rain, and then this afternoon back to mix. Looking over at what Little Rock is forecasting, the chances of an actual mix here look slim. Little Rock doesn't have a changeover to ice southeast of Little Rock, but then Memphis has the entire Mid-South changing over. It's confusing.. right now I think Memphis is being a bit too generous and Little Rock might be being a bit too conservative, because looking around the forecast areas around Little Rock they all have a changeover as well.

The winter weather events here are always so tricky to forecast. Just this year in February they said all rain in Tunica at 6 AM, then rain/snow with no accumulations at noon, and by 3 it was snowing heavily and we ended up with nearly 4 inches.


Regardless, it's going to be a shock to the system with those temps. If it stays cool for a while maybe we can get some more winter weather next week, lol..
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#9 Postby Janie2006 » Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:07 am

Meanwhile, back at the old family homestead in Sedalia, Mo.

Looks like a full-blown winter event.


Well, its only a 12 hour drive from here. Gah.
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#10 Postby Janie2006 » Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:37 am

If we can't have any snow, at least it will feel like Christmas by Mon/Tue. The morning discussion from KJAN is rather bullish about the Alberta Clipper system moving in behind the primary front:

THE FIRST AIRMASS THAT MOVES IN FRI WILL BE A COLD AIRMASS
BUT THIS WILL ONLY SET THE STAGE FOR MON AND TUE NEXT WEEK AS A MORE
IMPRESSIVE AND COLDER AIRMASS WORKS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THERE
ARE SOME IMPRESSIVE THINGS TO NOTE. PLACES IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH
THIS INITIAL AIRMASS ARE SETTING RECORD LOWS(HUNDRED YEAR OLD RECORD
LOWS) BUT THE SECOND AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORY/YUKON REGION HAS TEMPS DOWN TO AS LOW AS -45. IN
ADDITION TO THESE COLD AIRMASSES THERE WILL BE SNOW PACK OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AND THIS IS VITAL TO
GETTING THE COLD AIR DOWN HERE. MEX HAS LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA MON AND TUE MORNING AND THAT COULD BE TOO
WARM!!!

A good snowpack just to our north will enable the freezer door to swing wide open. Get out your coats!
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#11 Postby rsdoug1981 » Wed Nov 29, 2006 12:21 pm

Micah,

I wouldn't be surprised if you guys saw a little ice before all is said an done. The models are bringing the freezing line to those parts just before the precip departs. As far as Little Rock, I think they'll be seeing a bit more. The front is running several hours ahead of schedule. Dallas NWS just had to upgrade winter storm watch to warning due to the speed of the front.

I'm in Canton, and it sure is nice to see some other MS folks around here.
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#12 Postby rsdoug1981 » Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:59 pm

Okay. I've given up on frozen precip with this front. The low is going to track too far north for that this time around. Now, the question is how cold will it get. Here's a snippet of Jackson's afternoon AFD:

FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL KEEP US IN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. H850/H925 TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSLATE TO UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. H850/H925 TEMPERATURES ARE VERY SIMILAR ON SUNDAY...BUT THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF EVEN COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING H925 TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -8 TO -4 ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AND THIS TRANSLATES TO LOW TO MID 20S. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THE GFS USHERS IN TEENS AND EVENTUALLY SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS REALLY SETTLES IN. THE GFS ACTUALLY WARMS THE H925 TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECT ANOTHER VERY COLD MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN GET INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THAT.

WEDNESDAY COULD BE INTERESTING AS THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A WAVE OVER EAST TEXAS OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR... BUT THIS IS OUT IN DAY 7.

That last statement got my attention as Accuweather's extended forecast has been showing freezing rain on that day. Jackson forecasters are a little leery of small upper level disturbances ever since 1997. There have been several articles and model studies based on the 1997 snowstorm. A small disturbance got hold of a good deal of moisture and dropped 8 inches of snow across central MS. The forecast and ETA, which the forecasters relied heavily upon at the time, called for scattered flurries.
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#13 Postby HarlequinBoy » Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:14 pm

Yeah, I think we could see a little sleet/ice for a brief period of time in the Friday AM. Memphis still has us in Wintry Mix with little to no accumulations. The high is only 37 Friday though with wind! That's going to be a shock.

Thursday Night: Periods of rain and sleet before midnight, then periods of snow, freezing rain and sleet. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 29. Breezy, with a east southeast wind 10 to 20 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.



That will at least be something to watch.


I'm also interested in what a few AFDs across the South have been hinting at mid-week with a possible system.. with cold/cool air still around it could be somethingn to watch too.
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#14 Postby MGC » Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:31 pm

I am rather concerned with the second front that will pass through the coast this Sunday. I am thinking that it might get a bit colder than forecast. Currently NWS New Orleans is calling for temp on Monday morning of 31. My thinking is that is might get a bit colder because of the widespread winter storm that will cover most of OK, N Tex with sleet/snow. This snowpack won't allow the air to modify as much as usual. No snow yet but my gut is telling me that it is possible. Heck Orlando had flurries, I want in on the action......MGC
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#15 Postby rsdoug1981 » Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:36 pm

In the words of the great Jon Bon Jovi...Keep the faith! This is probably delusional, but it sure is fun to look at!

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_ptyp.gif
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#16 Postby Janie2006 » Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:41 pm

rsdoug1981 wrote:Okay. I've given up on frozen precip with this front. The low is going to track too far north for that this time around. Now, the question is how cold will it get. Here's a snippet of Jackson's afternoon AFD:

FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL KEEP US IN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. H850/H925 TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSLATE TO UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. H850/H925 TEMPERATURES ARE VERY SIMILAR ON SUNDAY...BUT THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF EVEN COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING H925 TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -8 TO -4 ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AND THIS TRANSLATES TO LOW TO MID 20S. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THE GFS USHERS IN TEENS AND EVENTUALLY SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS REALLY SETTLES IN. THE GFS ACTUALLY WARMS THE H925 TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECT ANOTHER VERY COLD MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN GET INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THAT.

WEDNESDAY COULD BE INTERESTING AS THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A WAVE OVER EAST TEXAS OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR... BUT THIS IS OUT IN DAY 7.

That last statement got my attention as Accuweather's extended forecast has been showing freezing rain on that day. Jackson forecasters are a little leery of small upper level disturbances ever since 1997. There have been several articles and model studies based on the 1997 snowstorm. A small disturbance got hold of a good deal of moisture and dropped 8 inches of snow across central MS. The forecast and ETA, which the forecasters relied heavily upon at the time, called for scattered flurries.


Yah, I've about given up for any significant winter precip for this round too. I'm still thinking the Tupelo/Oxford/Greenville corridor might stand the best chance, though.

That being said, it could be interesting over the next few days. I still think LIX and MOB are overplaying the temperature forecast, especially over the weekend. Let's see how the next event plays out for day 7.
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#17 Postby rsdoug1981 » Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:56 pm

It'sgoing to be close. I offer the following for your perusal. Note the position of the freezing line relative to LA/MS.

12z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml

00z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml

We'll see. You'll note that the most recent GFS run has sped the advance of the freezing line just slightly. Central MS may see a bit of freezing rain or sleet mixing with our rain yet. Not that that's anything to get excited about. I'm looking forward to what next week holds. The Jackson NWS certainly did include a nice teaser in its afternoon AFD.
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#18 Postby HarlequinBoy » Thu Nov 30, 2006 3:19 am

Well, at least now it's a few hours closer to whatever is going to happen.

It looks like the Ozarks are really going to block the cold air for a bit, unfortunately, but I think a brief period of an icy mix is possible, maybe even likely, over N MS in the Friday AM. Especially if the precip is still falling.

If the cold air filters in faster than that forecast that will definitely up the possibility.
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#19 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:03 am

It seems that the front has indeed slowed overnight.

I'd be surprised if central Ms got any significant winter wx, though you certainly can't rule out some sleet mixing in, especially in the Delta region north of Vicksburg. Given the track of the low pressure system and the possible time of FROPA, I'm thinking the best chances for winter precip are in the NW corner of the state.

Aside from these issues, it looks like a temperature forecast and the slight possibility of severe wx at this point.

On the other hand, stranger things have happened.
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#20 Postby HarlequinBoy » Thu Nov 30, 2006 4:20 pm

This Afternoon: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe. High near 68. South southeast wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Periods of rain before 1am, then a chance of snow, freezing rain and sleet. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 32. Windy, with a south southeast wind 20 to 30 mph becoming west southwest. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of light snow before noon. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 39. Windy, with a west northwest wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to between 5 and 10 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.


That's the latest forecast for here.. Tunica is in the corner of the state near Memphis, on the northern edge of the Delta.

I really don't think we'll have snow, but we'll see.
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