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000
FXUS62 KMFL 180212
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
912 PM EST SUN DEC 17 2006
.UPDATE...MIAMI SOUNDING THIS EVENING SHOWS LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...ALONG WITH A PWAT
OF 1.30 INCHES. SAT IMAGES SHOW SOME CU DEVELOPING OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS MOVING WSW IN THE LLVL PREVAILING FLOW...AND KAMX
RADAR IS SHOWING A SHOWER SOUTH OF GRAND BAHAMA...WITH TPBI RADAR
SHOWING SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SOME 10 NM EAST OF THE
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COAST. SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ATLANTIC
COAST LOOKS GOOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH
FOG POTENTIAL INTERIOR AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
INHERITED FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE DATA ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE STRAITS
GOING BACK TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPR AIR DATA ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE
WELL ESTABLISHED AT LOW LEVELS WITH UPR LVL TROUGH ABOVE IT ACROSS
CWA AROUND H7 AT THIS TIME AND JUST NORTH OF CWA AT H5 AND ABOVE.
THIS IS WELL REFLECTED IN WIND PROFILES WHICH SHOW A 7 KFT DEEP
LAYER OF EASTERLIES ABOVE THE SFC WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST ABOVE
THAT. ALONG WITH THIS...AND AS REFLECTED BY SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
LOOPS...THERE IS A STRONG GRADIENT OF MOISTURE MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE COAST MAKES ITS ADVANCE. IN FACT...SINCE
MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT...GPS MET WATER VAPOR RETRIEVALS FOR MIAMI SHOW
PWAT HAS DROPPED FROM ABOVE 2 INCHES TO AROUND 1.5 BY NOW.
THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE OR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UPR LEVEL S/W AXIS
WILL MOVE EAST OF CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST
AT MID LEVELS. WITH THIS PWAT VALUES SHOULD DROP BELOW AN INCH BY
MONDAY ALTHOUGH NAM IS A BIT FASTER/MORE AGGRESSIVE AT DOING THIS
THAN GFS. REGARDLESS...THE DRYING WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH...TO WARRANT
ONLY MINIMAL POPS THROUGH NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MAINLY TONIGHT
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS LOW LEVEL DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE TH ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND AND EVEN WEST COAST AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IN TERMS OF TEMPS...WE WILL REMAIN IN A REGIME OF NEARLY
NORMAL DAY TIME HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL NIGHT TIME LOWS THROUGH THE
SHORT RANGE.
EXTENDED
THE MAIN PLAYER FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
BE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING STRONG UPR LOW WITHIN IT AND MOVING IT
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. A SFC FRONTAL
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO APPROACH
FLORIDA AND THE CWA BY NEXT WEEKEND. ALSO...IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA OR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THEN COMES WHAT COULD BE THE MAIN PLAYER INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER
NEXT WEEKEND. BY THIS TIME...ANOTHER S/W DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NW...WEST OF THE ROCKIES...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS RESULTS IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
AND A HALT TO THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THE
RESULT IS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST STRENGTHENS A BIT AND
PARKS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH OR POTENTIALLY
EVEN CUT OFF LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN GULF. LOOKING AT THE
ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA...AND THE MODEL TRENDS...THIS SCENARIO IS
LOOKING MORE POSSIBLE WITH TIME ALBEIT THE UNCERTAINTY.
THIS PUTS THE CWA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A DEEP SWLY FLOW
WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE...COULD RESULT IN A WET PATTERN FROM LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE SAW LAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT...WILL TREND UP THE POPS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AND THE CLOUDINESS BUT NOT HIGHER THAN CHC AT THIS TIME.
WILL ALSO LEAVE MENTION IF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES
OF CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. FOR
TERMINAL APF...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS IN WESTERN
COLLIER COUNTY ARE MOVING WESTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY
AND MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR APF.
MARINE...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SE
STRENGTHENS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL BACK AND INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS WITH SEAS REACHING 7 FEET BY TOMORROW NIGHT
AND REMAINING AT 7 FEET OR MORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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