Jim Hughes

[Damar91]

I don't really understand your field, but is there anything in the space weather that would indicate anything on the horizon with these storms?
Thanks for your comments.

[Jim Hughes]

I don't really understand your field, but is there anything in the space weather that would indicate anything on the horizon with these storms?
Thanks for your comments.

I am not to sure what you exactly mean by horizon here. A major? Landfall ?

A forum search from last season would give you space weather specifics to monitor, like solar wind speed, energetic particle levels etc...and even URL links.

Geomagnetic storming and solar wind speed (Good reference..</> 500 km. sec ...A declining solar wind speed is usually better ) are good things to monitor along with solar flaring/eruptions. The latter can increase energetic particle levels within the earth's electrical environment significantly.

Last year and this year are like night and day space weather wise. One energetic electron fluence that I wrote about here at Storm2k (even "early" last season) spent about 80 % of the time above a key threshold during the months of August and September 05' alone. I think it was something like 48 out of the 61 days.

This year it's around 3% or about 30 hours for the last 44 days. The tropics are showing, or I should say are not showing this relationship.

We have a favorable AMO pattern that has pointed toward above average development for this season but certain other things, like the EL Nino and space weather, are keeping a developmental lid on these systems.

One is bound to crack a certain level sooner or later but the season as a whole is showing a definite quieter intensity pattern compared to prior years.

Just remember even the 02-03 season had activity and everyone agreed that we were already under the influence of a moderate El Nino. The revised AMO numbers for 2006 showed a more favorable AMO. So something is at work here.

Most will blame shear and ULL . Well a strong system can help with making it's environment. Plus the two variables I just mentioned might be influenced by space weather anyway.

I can not force people to follow space weather but anyone who does can see the possible relationship here. Ernesto, Florence, George and TD 8 have all followed patterns that I have continually written about.

[boca]

Jim any thoughts on 2007 or lets get thru 2006 first?

[sma10]

I can not force people to follow space weather but anyone who does can see the possible relationship here. Ernesto, Florence, George and TD 8 have all followed patterns that I have continually written about.

I'm assuming when you mention George, you mean the President.

[Jim Hughes]

Jim any thoughts on 2007 or lets get thru 2006 first?

I think it would be better to take it one season at a time. Although I am sure some long range forecasts will be out for next season within a couple of months. Actually Klotzbach and Gray's December outlook is just around the corner. This summer flew by.

[Jim Hughes]

I can not force people to follow space weather but anyone who does can see the possible relationship here. Ernesto, Florence, George and TD 8 have all followed patterns that I have continually written about.

I'm assuming when you mention George, you mean the President.

Good catch. I meant Gordon.

[Jim Hughes]

Wow ....Another thread removed from the Talkin Tropics Forum. Anyone else see a pattern here?

[Aslkahuna]

Remember the Imperial Rescript a while back that said that Space Weather could only be discussed in this section?

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

Remember the Imperial Rescript a while back that said that Space Weather could only be discussed in this section?

Steve

Yes I do . Actually it was about space weather posts and not space weather talk. At least that has always been my understanding. This was directed toward this initially. So I can understand the reasonng for this move since this has been explained to some of us.

[WindRunner]

I was hoping that this isn't where this thread ended up after it went missing from TT . . . guess I was wrong. Since it's already here, Jim, might as well talk some. Has there been anything particulary unusual or extraordinary going on with this season, particularly ones that would bode favorably or unfavorably for this season as a whole? I know you probably can't catch every signal the sun throws at us, but I'd just like to here some of your best guess and hunchwork, if you don't mind.

[Jim Hughes]

I was hoping that this isn't where this thread ended up after it went missing from TT . . . guess I was wrong. Since it's already here, Jim, might as well talk some. Has there been anything particulary unusual or extraordinary going on with this season, particularly ones that would bode favorably or unfavorably for this season as a whole? I know you probably can't catch every signal the sun throws at us, but I'd just like to here some of your best guess and hunchwork, if you don't mind.

Well the statistic I briefly mentioned in my first reply was no small potato here. There is a big difference between 3% and 80%. The El Nino factor is also contributing. Which I believe is space weather forced.

So in my opinion this season's activity level is being influenced by the absence of favorable space weather conditions for the ATL. (But let's not forget about the favorable AMO here.)

Last season was just the opposite and it was enhanced.

[WindRunner]

So is there anything in particular that you can see that harms activity, especially short-term (relatively speaking), or is it just a failure to help kind of situation?

[Jim Hughes]

So is there anything in particular that you can see that harms activity, especially short-term (relatively speaking), or is it just a failure to help kind of situation?

Well it's sort of a little of both. There are no extreme eruptions to enhance certain energetic particle levels but the solar wind speed has been below 500 km/sec level for most of September. I have written about this favorable condition before.

June was completely the opposite. We observed the solar wind speed above 500 km/sec about 41 % of the time during June. (ACE data) July 9%...August 22%...September around 10 %.

This would be only one of many variables to consider though.