Major solar flare

[gigabite]

923 should be passing through a gravitational vector formed by the alignment of Venus and Jupiter between the 14 and 18 on November 2006. The direction of the vector is away from the Earth, but I assume there will be some sort of rebound once the release threshold has elapse.

I use a geocentric ephemeris and I only observe the Sun to size an expected force vector. I expect some sort of CME to be shot out just before the Moon passes through the vector. In the past this type of coincidence has seemed to have coincided with tornados outbreaks in North America. There is some vorticity forecast to pass through the central US at the same time, but I don’t think that tornados are typical of this time of year.

I will be watching several factors until 11-25-2006

For earthquakes
11-12-06 24
11-13-06 25
11-14-06 26 1m6
11-15-06 22 1m6 1m8.3 asia
11-16-06 29
11-17-06 33
11-18-06 33
11-19-06 32
11-20-06 31
11-21-06 24
11-22-06 18
11-23-06 18
11-24-06 16
11-25-06 16
This region: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/rec ... tralia.php
For tropical development
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... lite=mtsat
For exceptional wind
http://www.storm2k.nhcwx.com/hw3.php?fo ... x480&key=0
And my regular Moon Path Study.
http://home.att.net/~study06/study06.htm

[Jim Hughes]

923 should be passing through a gravitational vector formed by the alignment of Venus and Jupiter between the 14 and 18 on November 2006. The direction of the vector is away from the Earth, but I assume there will be some sort of rebound once the release threshold has elapse.

I use a geocentric ephemeris and I only observe the Sun to size an expected force vector. I expect some sort of CME to be shot out just before the Moon passes through the vector. In the past this type of coincidence has seemed to have coincided with tornados outbreaks in North America. There is some vorticity forecast to pass through the central US at the same time, but I don’t think that tornados are typical of this time of year.

I will be watching several factors until 11-25-2006

For earthquakes
11-12-06 24
11-13-06 25
This region: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/rec ... tralia.php
For tropical development
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... lite=mtsat
For exceptional wind
http://www.storm2k.nhcwx.com/hw3.php?fo ... x480&key=0
And my regular Moon Path Study.
http://home.att.net/~study06/study06.htm

Well your thought are in line with my original forecast and my centered date for increased activity was November 17th , +/- seven days. I even mentioned this at Wright Weather on October 23rd.


http://www5.wright-weather.com/forum/sh ... 344&page=2

[Jim Hughes]

An X9.0 flare occurred a few hours ago. This is the strongest solar flare since the 11/4/03. More updates later.

[cpdaman]

http://www.spaceweather.com/


yes indeed and do u anticipate any effects on the u.s

[gigabite]

G 1
Minor
Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Other systems: migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels;
is commonly visible at high latitudes (northern Michigan and Maine)**.


R 1
Minor
HF Radio: Weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication on
sunlit side, occasional loss of radio contact.
Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for brief intervals.


There is a 50 to 85 percent chance of X and M class flares from sunspot 930.
There will be an increase in solar wind through Thursday 12-06-2006

[Jim Hughes]

The latter statements are pretty much a given. Especially the 2nd. Since we are currently under the influence of a coronal windstream. Region 930 is most likely old region 923. It popped of some big eruptions on the backside last month but it fizzled when it crossed the eastern limb and approached us.

My centered time frame for increased activity ( 11/10-24) was the 17th. Region 923 was about 30 degrees away from the central meridian on the 17th. (33 West)
I calculated this last Janaury. So the major flaring might have been off by about 11 days but my thoughts - calculations were pretty much right there.

This weekend looks to be stormy on the geomagnetic side. Especially if Region 930 keeps having these major eruptions. The chances of seeing the aurora will go up considerably as it rotates into a better geoeffective position.

[senorpepr]

Looks like spot 930 released another X-class flare. This would be the third X-class event since 930 crossed the eastern limb.

According to AFWA, the X3.7 flare occurred at 0223Z.

Not only does this affect satellites, but also keep in mind the astronauts aboard Discovery, which is docked with the ISS. It was reported that the crew has sought shelter until it is safe again.

Code: Select all

WOXX53 KGWC 132119
SUBJECT:  AFWA EVENT WARNING REPORT ISSUED AT 2119Z 13 DEC 2006
PART A.  ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT IN PROGRESS (UPDATE):
  A SATELLITE-ALTITUDE ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT BEGAN NEAR 0315Z 13 DEC 2006 IS CONTINUING.
  THE PEAK 5-MIN AVERAGED FLUX OBSERVED DURING THE PAST
  1-HOUR PERIOD WAS:
       GREATER THAN 50 MEV 16 P/CM2/SEC/STER AT 13/2110Z
       GREATER THAN 10 MEV 188 P/CM2/SEC/STER AT 13/2110Z
  THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO END BY 0315Z 14 DEC 2006
  THIS MESSAGE WILL BE UPDATED EVERY HOUR UNTIL THIS EVENT ENDS.
PART B.
  THIS EVENT MAY PRODUCE SPACECRAFT CHARGING AND SENSOR CONTAMINATION
  OR DAMAGE, ESPECIALLY FOR GEOSYNCRONOUS OR HIGH INCLINATION ORBITS.
PART C.  REMARKS:
  ISSUED BY THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY, OFFUTT AFB, NE.
  IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR REQUIRE FURTHER INFORMATION, CALL THE
  DUTY FORECASTER AT DSN 272-8087, COMMERCIAL 402-232-8087.
  INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED AT https://weather.afwa.af.mil
  UNDER THE SPACE WEATHER LINK.
FORECASTERS: Haban/  Pascoe

[senorpepr]

Checking out SEC's website, looks like this is a category S2 Solar Radiation Storm. (That would be moderate.) That means the astronauts should be fine, but the satellite may still see some issues.

Typical impacts from an S2 event:

Biological: passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk. (High energy particle measurements (>100 MeV) are a better indicator of radiation risk to passenger and crews. Pregnant women are particularly susceptible.)

Satellite operations: infrequent single-event upsets possible.

Other systems: small effects on HF propagation through the polar regions and navigation at polar cap locations possibly affected.








[Courtesy spaceweather.com for the last two images]

[Jim Hughes]

Yeah this was another big one. The astronauts were lucky this time around. I hope their luck continues. This region has been one of the most active this cycle. I would not be surprised if it unleashes another X-Class flare before it crosses the western limb. And this could easily trigger another strong proton event because of it's proximity.