Crazy GFS

[hurricanetrack]

Has anyone noticed that the GFS operational run has tried to develop a sub-tropical cyclone just north of PR and east of the Bahamas for like the last couple of weeks- off and on? It did it again in the 18Z run. Check it out in the animation:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

It is trying to get rid of some heat, that seems reasonable. But geez, it's only March. Can't imagine how many phantom storms it will have in late August. Didn't the old MRF do that? They called them "spurious" storms or something.....

[cycloneye]

A 1003 mb low? Yeah,it's very early to see that but with the climate changing globaly,you can't discount anything.For sure we will see many phanthom lows from this and other models as the weeks and months go ahead.

[hurricanetrack]

Luis, interesting point about the changing climate. If we see temps continue to rise then perhaps, just perhaps, the hurricane season will be longer.

Did anyone notice the report that said the winter was the warmest on record globally? I don't care who or what is causing it, the Earth is getting warmer, we know this as fact- just like we know that water freezes at 32 F. No debating that fact. So that being said, and again, I am not at all concerned with the cause (for many reasons) but I am concerned that the climate is changing and we are probably going to have to struggle to adapt. Let's see if indeed we get an early season storm again this year....would not be all that uncommon looking at the last few years.

[MississippiHurricane]

I agree hurricanetrack. The continued warmth can only mean more severe weather and more severe flooding across the world and I also believe the notion of a longer hurricane season. Heck look at zeta it was January!!!! There have been storms in January before, but not many. I just hope we dont have any other seasons like 2005. And even more recently more severe weather like the tornado they had in England and other European countries.

[JonathanBelles]

Im starting to think that storms early in the "season" may occur earlier in the year, agreeing with the 2 posters above me. I also think weather will continue to get more severe for a decade or more and the the earth will cycle into a cooler phase. I believe in the 50-year cycle. I dont belive that we will see a season like 2005, but may be in the near 20 TS's in the years to come. I expect landfalls in places with no or few landfalls before, in places like Europe, S. america, and southern australia. I'm welcome to any critism there is.

[WmE]

. And even more recently more severe weather like the tornado they had in England and other European countries.

Tornadoes in Europe aren't that unusual. I believe there have even been F5 tornadoes (old scale) in Germany and France and a F4 in the UK. In Austria the strongest tornado was a borderline F3/F4.

Here in Austria we've had the warmest winter ever. In Vienna we've had +16°C ( -10 °C is normal) in January!!

I'm not sure though if the global warming leads to an earlier season. SST are higher than the decades before but shear doesn't seem to subside earlier. It is however possible that the occurence of off-season storms gets more frequent.

[P.K.]

And even more recently more severe weather like the tornado they had in England and other European countries.

I suspect this is a reference to the Kensal Rise tornado in NW London on 7/12/2006, investigated that one myself (Just T5 in that case). It might surprise you but per land area England gets far more tornadoes per year than the USA. Nothing to do with global warming, these events are normal.