Hurricanes Not Linked To Climate Change

[weatherbud]

WASHINGTON - Global warming isn't to blame for the recent jump in hurricanes in the Atlantic, concludes a study by a prominent federal scientist whose position has shifted on the subject.

Not only that, warmer temperatures will actually reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic and those making landfall, research meteorologist Tom Knutson reported in a study released Sunday.

In the past, Knutson has raised concerns about the effects of climate change on storms. His new paper has the potential to heat up a simmering debate among meteorologists about current and future effects of global warming in the Atlantic.

Ever since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, hurricanes have often been seen as a symbol of global warming's wrath. Many climate change experts have tied the rise of hurricanes in recent years to global warming and hotter waters that fuel them.

Another group of experts, those who study hurricanes and who are more often skeptical about global warming, say there is no link. They attribute the recent increase to a natural multi-decade cycle.

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What are your thoughts about it?

[wbug1]

Well, I think the general consensus is higher SST's support stronger hurricanes. Since warmer air can push further up, it should push cloud top heights a bit higher generating more severe thunderstorms, on land or over sea and increasing the moisture the air can hold.

As for cycles of hurricanes, as I've learned on these forums, are the more dominant factor for the number of hurricanes, but as for intensity I don't see any question at all.

[Aslkahuna]

I wouldn't say that there is NO link between global Tropical Cyclone frequencies and intensities just probably not the one we've been hearing about in recent years. Also what happens with hurricanes in the ATL may not be a true indicator of what happens globally. Also, SST's are not the only factor in hurricane intensity since atmospheric patterns have a considerable amount to do with that as well.

Steve

[Sanibel]

I'll say as soon as we have another bad year like 2005 they'll be back saying maybe it does.

They say the high year for tornadoes is linked to La Nina and there wasn't enough data to conclusively link it to global warming - but it did fit with gw predictions for more strong thunderstorms.