North Pole Ice Free In September?

[Meso]

Not breaking news,but an interesting write-up

The North Pole may be briefly ice-free by September as global warming melts away Arctic sea ice, according to scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.Scientists say it's a 50-50 bet that the thin Arctic sea ice will completely melt away at the geographic North Pole.

Scientists say it's a 50-50 bet that the thin Arctic sea ice will completely melt away at the geographic North Pole.

"We kind of have an informal betting pool going around in our center and that betting pool is 'does the North Pole melt out this summer?' and it may well," said the center's senior research scientist Mark Serreze.

It's a 50-50 bet that the thin Arctic sea ice, which was frozen last autumn, will completely melt away at the geographic North Pole, Serreze said.

The ice retreated to a record level in September when the Northwest Passage -- the sea route through the Arctic Ocean -- opened up briefly for the first time in recorded history.

"What we've seen through the past few decades is the Arctic sea ice cover is becoming thinner and thinner as the system warms up," Serreze said.

Specific weather patterns will determine whether the North Pole's ice cover melts completely this summer, he said.


"Last year, we had sort of a perfect weather pattern to get rid of ice to open up that Northwest Passage," Serreze said. "This year, a different pattern can set up so maybe we'll preserve some ice there. We're in a wait-and-see mode right now. We'll see what happens."

The brief lack of ice at the top of the globe will not bring any immediate consequences, he said.

"From the viewpoint of the science, the North Pole is just another point in the globe, but it does have this symbolic meaning," Serreze said. "There's supposed to be ice at the North Pole. The fact that we may not have any by the end of this summer could be quite a symbolic change."

Serreze said it's "just another indicator of the disappearing Arctic sea ice cover" but that it is happening so soon is "just astounding to me."

"Five years ago, to think that we'd even be talking about the possibility of the North Pole melting out in the summer, I would have never thought it," he said.

The melting, however, has been long seen as inevitable, he said.

"If you talked to me or other scientists just a few years ago, we were saying that we might lose all or most of the summer sea ice cover by anywhere from 2050 to 2100," Serreze said. "Then, recently, we kind of revised those estimates, maybe as early as 2030. Now, there's people out there saying it might be even before that. So, things are happening pretty quick up there."

Serreze said those who suggest the Arctic meltdown is just part of a historic cycle are wrong.

"It's not cyclical at this point. I think we understand the physics behind this pretty well," he said. "We've known for at least 30 years, from our earliest climate models, that it's the Arctic where we'd see the first signs of global warming.

"It's a situation where we hate to say we told you so, but we told you so," he said.

Serreze said the Arctic sea ice will not be the same for decades.

"If we had a few cold years in a row, we could put sort of a temporary damper on it, but I think at this point going to an ice-free Arctic Ocean is inevitable," he said. "I don't think we can stop that now."

Reduced greenhouse gas emissions could "cool things down a bit," he said.

"It would recover fairly quickly, but it's just not going to happen for a while," he said. "I think we're committed at this point."

There are some positive aspects to the ice melting, he said. Ships could use the Northwest Passage to save time and energy by no longer having to travel through the Panama Canal or around Cape Horn.

"There's also, or course, oil at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean," he said. "Now, the irony of that is kind of clear but the fact that we are opening up the Arctic Ocean does make it more accessible."

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/weath ... index.html

[x-y-no]

It depends on the wind patterns. There's new ice covering the pole, and since only about 30% of new ice survives lately, that means a fair chance of open water over the pole.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a link to compare the current arctic ice pack to the arctic ice pack at this same point last year...

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/tes ... 28&sy=2008

It actually appears that, overall, there is slightly more ice up in the arctic this year than last year.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Here is a link to compare the current arctic ice pack to the arctic ice pack at this same point last year...

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/tes ... 28&sy=2008

It actually appears that, overall, there is slightly more ice up in the arctic this year than last year.

I like a short term prediction that can be easily observed.

Not going to look for it, and I know someone will quickly inform me if this is wrong, but according to Joe Bastardi, leading global warming alarmist, NOAA's Dr. Hansen, climate model predicted the mother of all ENSO events 2006-2007, which did not occur.

To quote JB apparently quoting Dr. Hansen, and not even knowing what all the R/S terms mean:

"We suggest that an El Nino is likely to originate in 2006 and that there is a good chance it will be a Rsuper El NinoS, rivaling the 1983 and 1997-1998 El Ninos, which were successively labeled the REl Nino of the centuryS as they were of unprecedented strength in the previous 100 years."

No idea what odd placement of the letters "R" and "S" mean. Might just be weird quotation marks.

[xironman]

It is not about where the ice melt is now compared to last year, it is about the end game. Since there is very little multiyear ice left August is the crucial month when normally the melting comes up against the tough old ice. That is went to check, in a month and a half.

[brunota2003]

My uncle is very shocked at how much it really has changed up there. The village he lived in for a number of years while up there usually has ice 5 to 8 feet thick in February. This year, 3 snowmobiles fell through the ice because it was so thin (all survived).

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ice still holding steady as we head into August...

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.0.html

[RL3AO]

Looking at this, there is more ice this year than at this time last year (especially off the coast of Russia)

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=07&fd=28&fy=2007&sm=07&sd=28&sy=2008

[Cane Scared]

I saw on the news recently about an underwater volcano or fissure on the sea floor that is releasing hot gas in this region that was causing the water to warm therefore less ice and more melting ice.

Dunno if this is true.

[Honeyko]

The North Pole may be briefly ice-free by September as global warming melts away Arctic sea ice, according to scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado. Scientists say it's a 50-50 bet that the thin Arctic sea ice will completely melt away at the geographic North Pole.

So exactly how much are the guys collecting in grants issued by politically-driven AGW promoters?

Last year's polar ice at this time:



This year's ice:



So what's the explanation for this ludicrous story in the middle of a solar minima in which pack-ice is obviously way, way, way more extensive that it was last year?

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/weather/06/27/north.pole.melting/index.html

Oh. CNN. The consummate BS artists and AGW shills.

[xironman]

You guys are calling game over a bit too soon, we need to get through August. Remember there is very little multiyear ice left, so the big question is what happens when we finish out this month. I think we should know by the 20th or so for sure. BTW: the cool ice maps come from http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/amsre.html, way better than cryosphere.

[Honeyko]

You guys are calling game over a bit too soon, we need to get through August.

Have you checked the albedo of the northern hemisphere high latitudes this year? It's amazing anything's melting at all. I've never seen so much sun-reflecting cloud cover as this year's. Last year, that whole patch of ocean to the west and southwest of the British Isles was generally cloud-free.

[xironman]

Well there is only 15 days until the 20th, I think we can make a call then. Kind of matters what that big yellow green area does on the Alaska side of the pole http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ ... RE_nic.png, if it collapses there is a chance, if not no way. I would put it at about 40% now.

[xironman]

BTW: NSIDC has a nice science based discussion on this topic out August 1 http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html

[xironman]

I think we will get a new low in sea ice area (cryosphere) http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere ... nt.365.jpg, it is close to 200km^2 above and looks like it will close the gap. Sea ice extent is still too far out to call since that runs later than area, I like http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm since the data is downloadable to excel.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[Air Force Met]

Lost in the politically charged article...based on a single point of view...is several facts:

1) The average we are basing this on is just the last 30 years. This is not when sea-ice was at its greatest...nor when it was at min. The climate fluctuates. If you were to measure it against the sea-ice at the end of the little ice age...we are way down. If you measure it against the average back in the 19th century...its about the same or a little more.

2) There is more ice and will be more ice (its getting colder up there) than there was last year. The dire warnings did not come true...but don't expect NEAR the number of articles and CNN stories on the fact the pole did not clear...as we saw about the "fact" that they "might" clear.

3) If this is truly to be a "global" problem...we are missing an entire hemisphere. he antarctic sea ice has been running above to well above mean average during the warm months. So...maybe we should look for another reason other than "global warming" to explain the lack of arctic sea ice. Wind patterns, ocean currents...they are numerous possible culprits.

If we don't get back into an active solar cycle...the global warming issue will be a moot point PDQ...and those who have been hiding the FACT that we haven't really warmed in 10 years will not have any place to hide.

The Climate: It's not static people...and you can't be short-sighted enough to believe we will live our lives with our parents climate.

[xironman]

Looks like we came up 100k short on ice area, so prediction off by that. AFM, the Chapman at cryosphere has done reconstructions back to 1870 http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/SEAICE/timeseries.1870-2007.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, I think it is pretty much set in stone now. We are at the end of September, and it is clear that the North Pole never went ice free this year as feared.