TROPICAL CYCLONE 1S - #3

[AussieMark]

WTXS31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- NEAR 4.6S0 65.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.6S0 65.9E0
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 4.9S3 66.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 5.2S7 66.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 5.5S0 65.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 6.0S6 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 4.7S1 66.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED AND A 301510Z0 SSMI SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY
REVEALED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER WEAK STEERING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND THEN SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTER 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 AND 012100Z4.//

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