TROPICAL CYCLONE ABAIMBA - #4

[AussieMark]

239
wtxs31 pgtw 010900
msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 01s (abaimba) warning nr 004
01 active tropical cyclone in southio
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
---
warning position:
010600z7 --- near 4.4s8 65.9e0
movement past six hours - 225 degrees at 03 kts
position accurate to within 060 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
radius of 034 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
070 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
060 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 4.4s8 65.9e0
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
011800z0 --- 4.7s1 65.7e8
Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
radius of 050 kt winds - 030 nm
radius of 034 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
075 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
065 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 225 deg/ 02 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
020600z8 --- 5.0s5 65.4e5
Max sustained winds - 060 kt, gusts 075 kt
radius of 050 kt winds - 030 nm
radius of 034 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
080 nm southeast quadrant
080 nm southwest quadrant
070 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 36 hr posit: 245 deg/ 04 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
021800z1 --- 5.4s9 64.6e6
Max sustained winds - 070 kt, gusts 085 kt
radius of 050 kt winds - 035 nm
radius of 034 kt winds - 075 nm northeast quadrant
080 nm southeast quadrant
080 nm southwest quadrant
075 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 48 hr posit: 245 deg/ 09 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
030600z9 --- 6.1s7 62.9e7
Max sustained winds - 075 kt, gusts 090 kt
radius of 050 kt winds - 035 nm
radius of 034 kt winds - 075 nm northeast quadrant
085 nm southeast quadrant
085 nm southwest quadrant
075 nm northwest quadrant
---
remarks:
010900z0 position near 4.5s9 65.8e9.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 01s (abaimba), located approximately
420 nm west-northwest of Diego Garcia, has tracked southwest
at 03 knots over the past 06 hours. The warning position
is based on 010530z9 multispectral satellite imagery. The
warning intensity is based on satellite current intensity
estimates of 35 and 45 knots and a recent Quikscat pass.
Animated multispectral and water vapor satellite imagery
reveal slight improvement in the poleward outflow and that
the low level circulation center (LLCC) is no longer
exposed. Tc 01s is expected to track slowly towards the
southwest under weak steering for the next 12 to 24 hours.
Afterwards, tc 01s will begin to steadily increase in track
speed under the influence of the low to mid-level steering
ridge as it begins to build in. Tc 01s is forecast to
intensify at a moderate rate throughout the forecast period
under improving upper level conditions. Maximum significant
wave height at 010600z7 is 18 feet. Next warnings at 012100z4
and 020900z1.//