TROPICAL CYCLONE ABAIMBA #10

[AussieMark]

WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABAIMBA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 7.4S1 65.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4S1 65.5E6
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 7.6S3 64.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 7.6S3 62.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 7.5S2 61.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 7.4S1 60.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 7.4S1 65.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABAIMBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
430 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 040530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR REVEALS AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01S HAS TRANSITIONED TO
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODELS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, AND NCEP GFS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.//

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