SYNOPTIC BULLETIN-EUROPE/MEDITERRANEAN 16DEC03

[senorpepr]

FOEU20 ETAX 161100
SYNOPTIC BULLETIN-EUROPE/MEDITERRANEAN

THE UKMO MODEL IS THE MODEL OF CONSISTENCY FOR THE USAFE OWS.
CURRENT PERFORMANCE IS DISCUSSED IN PARA C AND D BELOW.
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A. SYNOPTIC FEATURES (BASED ON 00Z U/A AND SATELLITE)
THE PATTERN REMAINS MERIDIONAL WITH A 110KT JET MAX ENTERING
THE THEATER IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, A 120KT JET MAX
CRESTING THE RIDGE OVR SCANDINAVIA AND ANOTHER APPARENT
IN CENTRAL FRANCE. MAJOR S/W TROF OVER THE ALPS, APENNINES AND
S. DINARICS SUPPORTS CONVECTIVE PRECIP, SUPPORTED BY
JET SUPPORT THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL. THE LLJ AND MID LEVEL
JETS ARE ANALYZED IN THE TIGHTEST PACKING ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS; BOTH SPLIT ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE ALPS. THE BORA AND THE MISTRAL PLAGUE THEIR
RESPECTIVE LOCATIONS. THE UPPER FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MAKE LANDFALL IN W. TURKEY. EXPECT CONVECTION WITH FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS AND UPSLOPE. THERMAL RIDGING CAPS CONVECTION OVR
THE IBERIAN PENINSULA AND ALSO BEGINS TO DEPLETE MOISTURE
OVR SWA. FRONTAL TRAIN OVR RUSSIA BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE
NORTH WITH N/S JET COMPONENT. LOW CENTER VALUES HAVE
INDICATED A WEAKENING TREND OVR THE PREV. 12HRS, HOWEVER
EXPECT DETERIORATED SENSIBLE WEATHER IN TERRAIN INFLUENCED
REGIONS, ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
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B. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY:
DEEPER MOISTURE IS APPARENT OVERRUNNING THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH
OF ICELAND. AN OPEN CELL CU FIELD ADVECTS OVR THE BENELUX,
AND IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG ARTIC AIR PUSH INTO THE THEATER.
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE IS AIDING IN LIGHT
PRECIP IN NORTHERN GERMANY. THE RIDGE IS WELL DEFINED AT
THE SFC AND IS BEGINNING TO MAKE LANDFALL OVR THE IBERIAN
PENINSULA.
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C. MODEL INITIALIZATION & VERIFICATION (BASED ON UKMO GM UNLESS NOTED): THE MODEL INITIALIZED AND VERIFIED WELL WITH PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND REMAINED WITHIN 1MB OF PRESSURE CENTERS AND WITH IN 1 DEGREE OF PLACEMENT.
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D. MM5 & OTHER MODEL COMPARISON
THE MM5 AND UKMO DATA ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER ON MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
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E. SEVERE WEATHER EMPHASIS:
SEVERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE E. ATLANTIC, S. FRANCE, E.
GERMANY, SCANDANAVIA AND N. RUSSIA. ONE AREA OF FREEZING PRECIP FORECAST, LOCATED OVER C. RUSSIA, EXTENDING SW'WARD INTO E. UKRAINE.
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F. 12-48HR OUTLOOK:
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ITS UL SUPPORT, LOCATED OVER THE E. ATLANTIC, PUSHES E'WARD INTO THE MAJOR S/W RIDGE SUPPORTING THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE BENELUX/N. FRANCE, CAUSING THE UL RIDGE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE SE'WARD. EXPECT THIS HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER EAST ANGLIA, THE BENELUX, GERMANY, MOST OF THE W. AND C. MED AND THE BALKANS. A SURFACE TROF MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH POLAND AND TRACKS SE'WARD THROUGH ROMANIA, THEN FILLS. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE E. MED WILL OCCLUDE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK TO THE E, BRINGING UNFAVORABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO W. AND E. TURKEY.
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THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED EVERY 12 HOURS AND IS NOT AMENDED.
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A/B-FLIGHT
PRODUCTION SUPERVISOR: MSGT LAMMERS/TSGT HUBERT
PRODUCED BY: SRA PHIPPS/TSGT SAAVEDRA