El Nino conditions : weather in Peru

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El Nino
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El Nino conditions : weather in Peru

#1 Postby El Nino » Thu Sep 14, 2006 12:03 pm

Hi all,

As a Belgian resident in Peru, I had the idea to make some comments about the coming El Nino. I'm living in Peru, and we're just finishing winter, which was less cold than the previous one. Normally, temperatures should go down until 16 or 17°, but this time, it never went under 18°. For the moment, we have 20°, which is 2° above normal.

I think it will be interesting to make some comments about what it's going on here, because peruvian authorities are taking some decisions about the coming El Nino, like installing some emergency offices and keeping an eye on the climatologic evolution. I'm reading the peruvian newspapers all the time and you have, for the people who know spanish, the SENAMHI, which is the Meteorological Service of Peru. Their adres is at http://www.senamhi.gob.pe

For the moment, the most intereresting thing is temperatures along the coast, which is 2° higher than normal. Piura, in the North, well known for torrential rains during strongs El Nino is reporting 31°, which is a lot higher than I experienced in the past when I lived over there with 2-3° warmer than normal. Lima, Trujillo in the center, Tacna in the South are all experiencing temperatures around or above 20°, which is 2° above normal. As I said, winter was not unpleasant and we're all feeling here that things are warming up and that conditions are not normal. Summer could be quite interesting, hot and humid.
Maybe if El Nino is really waking up here, we could make this sticky as I could provide some quite permanent informations.

:wink:
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#2 Postby El Nino » Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:28 pm

Hi all,

Spring has begun a few days ago, what it means she should slowly evoluate towards sunny conditions in november and more after. However, beginning of spring is always a matter of mostly cloudy weather and some sunshine if we're lucky. The rest of september and october should stay quite cloudy with some sunny spells, especially during the afternoon. Temperatures are close to 20° for the moment, evoluating towards 24° in november, according to the SENAMHI, the official weather service of the Peruvian State.

This map is showing quite clearly that temperature should be above average on the coast :
http://www.senamhi.gob.pe/usr/dmc/tmp/n ... RegMax.gif
which is quite uncommon.

All in all, a quite interesting point of view regarding possibilities of El Nino Conditions during summer.
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#3 Postby El Nino » Tue Oct 17, 2006 8:43 pm

We're now mid-october and in one month conditions should improve and we'll have sunny and warm conditions. For the moment, there are some interesting things :

Some drizzly rain in Lima, sometimes intense, which is quite intense for the time of the year. Normally, october should stay dry. According to the people of Lima, this should be the first signs of El Nino in Lima. More generally in coastal regions, temperarature stay 2 degrees above normal, with even more in Trujillo with 4 degrees above normal, which is quite high.

The SENAMHI is still forecasting above normal temperatures for the months oct-nov-dec with a quite interesting pocket of warm night in N-Peru, which could be the signs of more clouds during the night, linked maybe to more rains :

Image

After recent observations of SST rising in the Eastern Pacific, due to the arrival of a Kelvin wave in the region, maybe we'll see something really interesting.
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#4 Postby curtadams » Sat Oct 21, 2006 4:10 pm

How does this compare to El Nino conditions? Does this typify El Nino for you?
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#5 Postby El Nino » Sat Oct 21, 2006 5:04 pm

These are weak El Nino conditions, but everyone knows it. It won't be a remake of 97-98.
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