2007 predicted to be world's warmest year

[TexasStooge]

LONDON (Reuters) - This year is set to be the hottest on record worldwide due to global warming and the El Nino weather phenomenon, Britain's Meteorological Office said on Thursday.

The Met Office said the combination of factors would likely push average temperatures this year above the record set in 1998. 2006 is set to be the sixth warmest on record globally.

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[ncupsscweather]

That is Interesting but may come true. I really don't want to get into my thoughts on Global Warming but I wouldn't doubt a bit that this does come true we will just have to wait and see... A very interesting topic though..

[Aquawind]

No real surprise.. We all know the planet is warming. The issue seems to be who do we blame humans or mother nature and what can we do if anything.. We can't even predict a El Nino or it's impacts with accuracy..

[JonathanBelles]

im not suprised. How many warmest months did we have last year. pretty soon its gonna be a warmest year.

[curtadams]

I don't see how they could know this. El ninos are unpredicatable, and warming on a year-to-year basis is small compared to annual variation. It's the accumulating inexorable march which is causing trouble. What's the BMO's track record for forecasting worldwide averages?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think 4 days into the new year is WAY too early to make a call like that. They should probably wait until at least September or October before saying the warmest year ever is likely to be 2007.

For a good comparion...This is like trying to say that a particular hurricane season will be the busiest ever based only on early June information. That would make no sense, would it? Then how is making a "warmest year ever" call in early January any different?

[DrCloud]

This is like trying to say that a particular hurricane season will be the busiest ever based only on early June information.

Not exactly.

I don't know what basis the BMO is using for this, but it undoubtedly involves their take on the overall upward trend of global temperatures.

In contrast, the seasonal tropical cyclone outlooks that come out in June (and earlier) are based on multi-variate regression analyses of historical data and the use of current-year conditions with those regressions as the predictor equations. There aren't really trends built in, just historical patterns. (This isn't to say these outlooks are particularly accurate; witness the 2006 season.)

This is the big debate in tropical climatology just now: are hurricanes affected more by the overall trend, or is it just another set of these patterns in some kind of conjunction? HPH

[Bunkertor]

I agree ! Think it´s not really possible to predict the warmest year an give a 60 % ratio.
We know better at the end of the year. When autumn gets cold really fast/early all statistics are useless. 2006 was predicted to be a strong hurricane-year....

[P.K.]

Here is the full press release from the UKMO. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070104.html It says over the last seven years their mean forecast error has been 0.06C answering an earlier question in this thread.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah warmest in the last 100 years, but during the dark ages we where almost a degree warmer. So we are coming out of a ice age, it is to be expected.

[x-y-no]

Yeah warmest in the last 100 years, but during the dark ages we where almost a degree warmer. So we are coming out of a ice age, it is to be expected.

Presumably you are referring to the Medieval Warm Period.

There is no good evidence that the MWP was a global phenomenon. Indeed, the best evidence indicates that it was a regional one.

See, for example:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/medieval.html

Medieval Warm Period - 9th to 14th Centuries

Norse seafaring and colonization around the North Atlantic at the end of the 9th century was generalized as proof that the global climate then was warmer than today. In the early days of paleoclimatology, the sparsely distributed paleoenvironmental records were interpreted to indicate that there was a "Medieval Warm Period" where temperatures were warmer than today. This "Medieval Warm Period" or "Medieval Optimum," was generally believed to extend from the 9th to 13th centuries, prior to the onset of the so-called "Little Ice Age."

In contrast, the evidence for a global (or at least northern hemisphere) "Little Ice Age" from the 15th to 19th centuries as a period when the Earth was generally cooler than in the mid 20th century has more or less stood the test of time as paleoclimatic records have become numerous. idea of a global or hemispheric "Medieval Warm Period" that was warmer than today however, has turned out to be incorrect.

(emphasis mine)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is certainly one of the hottest winters ever for Central and South Florida.
Highs into the 80s today, like many other days this "winter"....
There's definately something fishy about this winter...
If we do not get a cold spell here temperatures will make the record books

[hookemfins]

This is certainly one of the hottest winters ever for Central and South Florida.
Highs into the 80s today, like many other days this "winter"....
There's definately something fishy about this winter...
If we do not get a cold spell here temperatures will make the record books

What's happening this winter in FL is more of jet is not dipping into the state. You have a zonal flow keeping the fronts to the N.

[Meso]

Speaking of hottest years.... Wow... It's been 35`C here for 4 days in a row,and with again,42(about 107 farenheit?) forecast tomorrow...It's the hottest heatwave I've felt.And with the humidity under 20% the wind feels like a hair dryer :/ Painful to just exist in this weather >_<

[milankovitch]

I don't see how they could know this. El ninos are unpredicatable, and warming on a year-to-year basis is small compared to annual variation. It's the accumulating inexorable march which is causing trouble. What's the BMO's track record for forecasting worldwide averages?

The basis is that we have gotten warmer (removing interannual variability) since the 1998 El Nino. 2005 was able to slighltly best 1998 without the aid of an El Nino (warm Pacific early in the year cool towards the end). Even a moderate El Nino year (as projected through most of 2007) could very well be enough to push us over the top and best 1998 and 2005 by a moderate margin. Just wait till we get our next major El Nino like a repeat of 1998 or 1982; global temperature records will be smashed.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will say 2007 will be slightly cooler then 2006. Why because the El nino will be weaking. I think 7th this year will end up as.

[Yarrah]

An interesting start here for a year that is expected te become the warmest. Average temperature in january should be 2.8°C, but the average temperature this january has been 7.2°C, which makes it the warmest january in 300 years

[Cyclenall]

Average temperature in january should be 2.8°C, but the average temperature this january has been 7.2°C, which makes it the warmest january in 300 years

Records were kept that far back? 300 years in what region?

[P.K.]

For what it is worth the average temp for England in Jan was 7.0C (71-00 ave is 4.2C). That makes it the warmest Jan since 1921 (7.3C) and 5th warmest on record back to 1659.

[Yarrah]

Average temperature in january should be 2.8°C, but the average temperature this january has been 7.2°C, which makes it the warmest january in 300 years

Records were kept that far back? 300 years in what region?

Engineer and cartographer Nicolaus Samuelis Cruquius started to record the weather in the Netherlands on 19 december 1705. Of course his measurements weren't very precise, but they give a good overview of the weather in those days.