UK: Big storm followed by a big change?

[Gord_on_snow]

Suddenly theres a lot to discuss again!

First of all, a very deep low pressure is progged to cross the UK on Thursday, the met office have produced an early warning:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ ... nings.html

Looks like southern England could get the worst hit. Gusts up to 80mph are possible across my part of England.

Though strong winds are becoming fairly common here recently, it is being downgraded in todays model runs.

Of big concern could be the amount of rain it brings, as another thread mentions, the UK has had more than its fair share this January...i can only count one completly dry day so far, (last Sunday)..the rivers are full and the round is saturated.

However, something has happened that has had the British weather boards absolutly buzzing, and its a pretty incredible development as well.

We have had a very mild and snowless winter here in England, only the highest places have really seen anything that can be called snowfall. All January, zonal conditions have settled in, lots of wind, rain and very mild tempertures. No nights below freezing at all yet this month in many places in England. All the way, the models have been showing zonal conditions to be persisting until the end of the month and its all been looking very consistent and a record breaking warm January looked like to be on....

....until around 48 hours ago, when sudenly the major models had a huge turnaround (although some had been hinting last week, they were largely ignored as being seen as too far into the future), suddenly, we look like having a major pattern change on the way for the weekend that would bring cold and potentially snowy conditions to this part of the world. As always, GFS went to town with it and yesterday was showing runs that would bring some very cold temperatures and a lot of snow to many parts of the UK...its backed off on that today which was no surpirse as it was a bit too muchof a drastic turnaround.

But there is agreement that something is about to change around here after the weekend and it could be a significant change as well that would bring a shock to many people. The models suddenly caught us all out with it.

Still a long way to go, and its too early to put any kind of detail. I think the safest thing to say right now is that it will be cooler, but how much cooler and for how long is uncertain.

What is great is to see the enthusaiasm back in the many weather people who post on the internet from this country.

Now my knowledge is not really that good on model reading, so i know theres some others from England on here who are pretty good at that ind of thing so any more detailed information or any corrections to what i've just said would be appreciated!

[gord]

Keep trying to reply to update, but the electric keeps going on and off...this is a bad storm, windows shaking very violently here at home!:

So to be quick, here is a link to the BBC story:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6272193.stm

More later when things have settled down.

[angelwing]

Just seen this on CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/01 ... index.html

Hurricane sweeps across Europe
POSTED: 8:02 a.m. EST, January 18, 2007

BERLIN, Germany (Reuters) -- Germans were told to stay indoors and many schools across the country closed early on Thursday as a rare hurricane bore down on the country, cutting air traffic at its biggest airport by half.

Germany's DWD meteorogical service said the storm "Kyrill" could generate winds of up to 180 km/h (112 mph) in high and exposed areas and as much as 130 km/h in lower-lying regions.

"What's unusual about this storm is that it will affect the whole country and not just certain zones," said Christoph Hartmann, a spokesman for the DWD in Offenbach.

The northwest of Germany would be the first to feel the full impact of Kyrill from early afternoon, before the storm swept across the rest of the country and moved eastwards into Poland, the Czech Republic and northern Austria, the DWD said.

Rain would likely continue into the weekend in affected areas, as the storm's force gradually dissipated, it added.

As Germans were warned on the radio and television to keep their cars away from trees and to stay indoors, authorities in states stretching across the length and breadth of the country said many schools were closing early due to Kyrill's arrival.

Rescue services around Germany said they had mobilized extra staff to prepare for potential flooding and destructive winds.

German airline Deutsche Lufthansa said it expected numerous flight cancellations and delays on Thursday, while Frankfurt airport said takeoffs and landings were cut by half.

Germany was not the only country hit. British and French rescue services rushed to pick up sailors forced to abandon a container ship after it began sinking in stormy waters in the Channel.

[Gorky]

I'm thankful my area escaped this one ok. It didn't seem all that windy at all here, yet some 25 Miles south at Leconfield, winds were gusting well over 70mph. A similar storm last year caused over £5000/$10000 to my Dad's business but this one tracked just a little lower so we missed the worst.

[Cryomaniac]

Dunno what the wind gusts were just here, but it was pretty damn strong, at a complete guess I'd say about 60 mph.