Gray and Landsea claim Hurricane activity is down

[caneman]

which is the opposite of what Gore would have you believe. fThis is a fascinating article.

Alarmist global warming claims melt under scientific scrutiny

June 30, 2007
BY JAMES M. TAYLOR
In his new book, The Assault on Reason, Al Gore pleads, "We must stop tolerating the rejection and distortion of science. We must insist on an end to the cynical use of pseudo-studies known to be false for the purpose of intentionally clouding the public's ability to discern the truth." Gore repeatedly asks that science and reason displace cynical political posturing as the central focus of public discourse.
If Gore really means what he writes, he has an opportunity to make a difference by leading by example on the issue of global warming.

A cooperative and productive discussion of global warming must be open and honest regarding the science. Global warming threats ought to be studied and mitigated, and they should not be deliberately exaggerated as a means of building support for a desired political position.

Many of the assertions Gore makes in his movie, ''An Inconvenient Truth,'' have been refuted by science, both before and after he made them. Gore can show sincerity in his plea for scientific honesty by publicly acknowledging where science has rebutted his claims.

For example, Gore claims that Himalayan glaciers are shrinking and global warming is to blame. Yet the September 2006 issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate reported, "Glaciers are growing in the Himalayan Mountains, confounding global warming alarmists who recently claimed the glaciers were shrinking and that global warming was to blame."

Gore claims the snowcap atop Africa's Mt. Kilimanjaro is shrinking and that global warming is to blame. Yet according to the November 23, 2003, issue of Nature magazine, "Although it's tempting to blame the ice loss on global warming, researchers think that deforestation of the mountain's foothills is the more likely culprit. Without the forests' humidity, previously moisture-laden winds blew dry. No longer replenished with water, the ice is evaporating in the strong equatorial sunshine."

Gore claims global warming is causing more tornadoes. Yet the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated in February that there has been no scientific link established between global warming and tornadoes.

Gore claims global warming is causing more frequent and severe hurricanes. However, hurricane expert Chris Landsea published a study on May 1 documenting that hurricane activity is no higher now than in decades past. Hurricane expert William Gray reported just a few days earlier, on April 27, that the number of major hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. Atlantic coast has declined in the past 40 years. Hurricane scientists reported in the April 18 Geophysical Research Letters that global warming enhances wind shear, which will prevent a significant increase in future hurricane activity.

Gore claims global warming is causing an expansion of African deserts. However, the Sept. 16, 2002, issue of New Scientist reports, "Africa's deserts are in 'spectacular' retreat . . . making farming viable again in what were some of the most arid parts of Africa."

Gore argues Greenland is in rapid meltdown, and that this threatens to raise sea levels by 20 feet. But according to a 2005 study in the Journal of Glaciology, "the Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins and growing inland, with a small overall mass gain." In late 2006, researchers at the Danish Meteorological Institute reported that the past two decades were the coldest for Greenland since the 1910s.

Gore claims the Antarctic ice sheet is melting because of global warming. Yet the Jan. 14, 2002, issue of Nature magazine reported Antarctica as a whole has been dramatically cooling for decades. More recently, scientists reported in the September 2006 issue of the British journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Series A: Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences, that satellite measurements of the Antarctic ice sheet showed significant growth between 1992 and 2003. And the U.N. Climate Change panel reported in February 2007 that Antarctica is unlikely to lose any ice mass during the remainder of the century.

Each of these cases provides an opportunity for Gore to lead by example in his call for an end to the distortion of science. Will he rise to the occasion? Only time will tell.


James M. Taylor is senior fellow for environment policy at the Heartland Institute.

[Aric Dunn]

"Gore claims global warming is causing more frequent and severe hurricanes. However, hurricane expert Chris Landsea published a study on May 1 documenting that hurricane activity is no higher now than in decades past. Hurricane expert William Gray reported just a few days earlier, on April 27, that the number of major hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. Atlantic coast has declined in the past 40 years. Hurricane scientists reported in the April 18 Geophysical Research Letters that global warming enhances wind shear, which will prevent a significant increase in future hurricane activity."

that is true. but since we are in a multi-decadel cycle .. which is about every 30 to 40 years
we see and increase and decrease in hurricane activity. and thus the last 30 to 40 years has been said to be slower than the previous before that and since we are in another active 30 year cycle the last ten years has had more landfalls than any other 10 year period during the previous cycle. so hurricane landfalls may not follow the same patter but you could easily make the connection between more hurricanes and landfalls and less hurricane and less landfalls . but it may not follow it in any given year

[AtlanticWind]

The link between global warming and hurricanes is in question, but global warming itself is very evident .

[bocadad]

Without getting into a debate over the merits of the arguments made by the Heartland Institute, it should be noted that they are a "free market" think tank that has worked to deny the existance of global warming. It has also worked with the tobacco industry in defending their interests. See this link. One of the board members is an executive with General Motors. One can certainly consider the source before making a judgement on the validity of their claims. Here is a direct quote from the U.N. report.

The vast polar ice sheets are shrinking as our climate becomes warmer. Floating ice shelves and glacier tongues are thinning and even breaking up in both Greenland and Antarctica, probably because of the combined effects of warming ocean waters and increasing summer air temperatures.

[StormWarning1]

Neither Chris Landsea or DR.Gray claim hurricane activity is down as the title of this the thread says.

Chris Landsea is saying that number storms from the past is under reported, particularly those that formed in the open Atlantic, while seasons of more recent years, since the satellite era, or more accurate. If you adjust the number of storms for lack of detection from the 1851 to 1960 era than the numbers began to even out.
Here is a link to the article.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/la ... 012007.pdf" target="_blank

Dr. Gray is not saying hurricane activity is down, just that the number of major hurricanes making landfall is down.

Maybe reanalysis will cut down the number of majors from the 1940 thru 1960 era which will even out that number a little.

[Aric Dunn]

Neither Chris Landsea or DR.Gray claim hurricane activity is down as the title of this the thread says.

Chris Landsea is saying that number storms from the past is under reported, particularly those that formed in the open Atlantic, while seasons of more recent years, since the satellite era, or more accurate. If you adjust the number of storms for lack of detection from the 1851 to 1960 era than the numbers began to even out.
Here is a link to the article.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/la ... 012007.pdf" target="_blank" target="_blank

Dr. Gray is not saying hurricane activity is down, just that the number of major hurricanes making landfall is down.

Maybe reanalysis will cut down the number of majors from the 1940 thru 1960 era which will even out that number a little.

except that last 10 to 12 years landfalls are way up ...

[cpdaman]

guys both sources are spin doctoring the facts to massage the filters/create the beliefs through which the public perceives things

it's all about power and the benjamin's and the enviornmentalists know polluition and saving the enviornemt is to big a battle to win without something as big as global warming on there side

it is a study in applied psychology to get people to change behavior if you don't alarm people they will not change there beleifs or raise there awareness level.

umm global warming is occuring and some ice caps are melting

response 1. okay and

umm global warming is occuring and in 15 years that house you built on the beach won't be there (when they in fact are just guessing based on worst case analysis)

response 2. REALLy! lets do something

And mister honest politician and banker says well i'm glad you asked us we already had a plan umm i mean we think we can figure out a solution but use may lose some freedoms and it may cost you a few bucks, but i'm glad you brought it to our umm attention

do not underestimate the power of shaping the filters thru which people perceive info, that i described in the first sentence

btw aresols and other human action have led to a degree of global dimming which seems to have a cooling effect which may negate the other emissions which may have a warming effect

*but global warming (naturally) may be occuring today and even if it is natural it still could be a bit dangerous for humans considering hom many cities are near sea level (not really animals or plants cause they have been through hundreds of these cycles) but they have to make humans feel responsible in order for them to feel guilty enough to do something (as well as 2 make a buck off of changing laws) and (privatize natural resources $$) , and that is what the smart people don't like about being manipulated and that is why doing this ruins the credibility of something that may be natural and a wee bit dangerous to humans

[Aric Dunn]

the really funny thing.... that everyone forgets .. is that roughly 11,000 years ago the last ice age ended...hmmmm so i wonder what happens after that.. hmmm maybe "GLOBAL WARMING" and since that cycle is about every 50,000 years or so .. we should be approaching the peak warming according to the natural cycles of the earth over the next 10 to 20,000 years... lol

i find that to be funny.. even if we stopped all of our cO2s' it would not stop the natural cycle.. also the ocean's them sleves release more CO2 than we ever could attempt

[cycloneye]

Although the title of the thread mentions the word hurricane
the meat of the thread is about the hot theme of global warming.That is why this thread has been moved to this global weather forum.

[Aric Dunn]

and with all cycles are oscillations there are smaller one within it.. so some periods of faster warming over short periods of time verses more gradual warming.. but your its about money and making the big impression

[caneman]

Well stated Aric and that has been my point all along. Global Warmers will have you believe the last oh I don't know 10, 20 or 40 years iof warming s indiative of man made Global when in fact it has been occuring all along but in far greater time spans. Fascinating article in that many of Gore's claims have in fact already been discounted, with ahem, Science!

[WindRunner]

Global Warmers will have you believe the last oh I don't know 10, 20 or 40 years iof warming s indiative of man made Global when in fact it has been occuring all along but in far greater time spans. Fascinating article in that many of Gore's claims have in fact already been discounted, with ahem, Science!

Bravo. I do think that this article is a little one-sided, but they are pretty much all valid sources.

It is kind of policy around here that if you post an article on the board that you are supposed to post a link with it, and it's particularly important in cases like these. So if you could include a link to this article, it would be much appreciated.

[bocadad]

guys both sources are spin doctoring the facts to massage the filters/create the beliefs through which the public perceives things

it's all about power and the benjamin's and the enviornmentalists know polluition and saving the enviornemt is to big a battle to win without something as big as global warming on there side

it is a study in applied psychology to get people to change behavior if you don't alarm people they will not change there beleifs or raise there awareness level.

umm global warming is occuring and some ice caps are melting

response 1. okay and

umm global warming is occuring and in 15 years that house you built on the beach won't be there (when they in fact are just guessing based on worst case analysis)

response 2. REALLy! lets do something

And mister honest politician and banker says well i'm glad you asked us we already had a plan umm i mean we think we can figure out a solution but use may lose some freedoms and it may cost you a few bucks, but i'm glad you brought it to our umm attention

do not underestimate the power of shaping the filters thru which people perceive info, that i described in the first sentence

btw aresols and other human action have led to a degree of global dimming which seems to have a cooling effect which may negate the other emissions which may have a warming effect

*but global warming (naturally) may be occuring today and even if it is natural it still could be a bit dangerous for humans considering hom many cities are near sea level (not really animals or plants cause they have been through hundreds of these cycles) but they have to make humans feel responsible in order for them to feel guilty enough to do something (as well as 2 make a buck off of changing laws) and (privatize natural resources $$) , and that is what the smart people don't like about being manipulated and that is why doing this ruins the credibility of something that may be natural and a wee bit dangerous to humans

Let's see. You are too lazy to use spell checker. You can't be bothered with capitals or proper punctuation. You begin sentences with but. You make statements without documentation. I think I will stick to the many dedicated and educated scientists seriously studying global warming whose main interest is finding the truth wherever it may lead.

[caneman]

Here is the link to the article.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/otherviews ... 0b.article

[caneman]

Without getting into a debate over the merits of the arguments made by the Heartland Institute, it should be noted that they are a "free market" think tank that has worked to deny the existance of global warming. It has also worked with the tobacco industry in defending their interests. See this link. One of the board members is an executive with General Motors. One can certainly consider the source before making a judgement on the validity of their claims. Here is a direct quote from the U.N. report.

The vast polar ice sheets are shrinking as our climate becomes warmer. Floating ice shelves and glacier tongues are thinning and even breaking up in both Greenland and Antarctica, probably because of the combined effects of warming ocean waters and increasing summer air temperatures.

And why shouldn't they work to deny it when it is backed up by science. Speaking of considering the source, "Gore" politcal motives, and GW scientist - "Fame and money", so, what is your point?

[bocadad]

Without getting into a debate over the merits of the arguments made by the Heartland Institute, it should be noted that they are a "free market" think tank that has worked to deny the existance of global warming. It has also worked with the tobacco industry in defending their interests. See this link. One of the board members is an executive with General Motors. One can certainly consider the source before making a judgement on the validity of their claims. Here is a direct quote from the U.N. report.

The vast polar ice sheets are shrinking as our climate becomes warmer. Floating ice shelves and glacier tongues are thinning and even breaking up in both Greenland and Antarctica, probably because of the combined effects of warming ocean waters and increasing summer air temperatures.

And why shouldn't they work to deny it when it is backed up by science. Speaking of considering the source, "Gore" politcal motives, and GW scientist - "Fame and money", so, what is your point?

Actually, you have made my point for me. Just for the record, I never mentioned Al Gore nor was I refering to him at all in my post.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If we have global warming wouldn't it mean
worse hurricanes?
Hotter water means stronger hurricanes
Hotter water fuels stronger hurricanes
So global warming means much more severe
hurricanes...unless something happens
to stop the hurricanes....or mitigate their
intesities...

[Regit]

It should be mentioned that Landsea is a student of Gray and that they will be proven right or wrong soon enough.

Dr. Gray has said that global cooling will commence by (at the late end of his time scale) early 2010. I have to give Dr. Gray credit. He is risking his career on a very bold prediction.

[Regit]

If we have global warming wouldn't it mean
worse hurricanes?
Hotter water means stronger hurricanes
Hotter water fuels stronger hurricanes
So global warming means much more severe
hurricanes...unless something happens
to stop the hurricanes....or mitigate their
intesities...

Not necessarily, as Gore has noted. Global warming also causes ice melting, which cools water. On top of that, the warming can cause other atmospheric disturbances, such as stronger El ninos.

The article is not well written. It's fairly easy to poke holes in some of the things. The ice sheet thing is the biggest falsehood. It claims that all the GW crowd is claiming that the ice sheets are getting smaller. That's wrong. Through global warming, ice sheets should begin to melt by thinning at the edges and growing in the middle, as extra moisture causes more snowfall in the middle where it's still cold enough. Eventually, though, warming would begin to shrink the entire ice sheet. That is precisely what the article says is happening.

But take anything from the Heartland Institute with a grain of salt. Its board wouldn't know "conflict of interest" if it bit them.

[caneman]

Regit,

You make some good points, however, make no mistake, Gore and GW scientist have their own agendas as well.