State of La. to release revamped evac procedure

[Ixolib]

For a crude illustration (below), consider that a cat 3 storm is somewhere in the Caribbean moving in a generally northwestward direction at 12 miles per hour. When that same storm reaches a point where it is "supposedly" 50 hours out from the parishes south of N.O., it would be still be 600 miles away, or say approximately 21N 86W. Given that scenario, how do the "officials" expect folks to readily evacuate their places of residence when SO MANY THINGS could (and will) happen in that time period. Recurve, downgrading, shear, reduced forward speed, or any of a hundred other influences make the 50-hour plan seem ludicrous to me… Plus, if people do leave, and the storm ends up landfalling anywhere else on the Gulf coast, I'll bet they won't be leaving the next time.

Imagine this… It's a beautiful summer day in lower Lafourche Parish and the Sheriff knocks on your door telling you that you have to leave now. So, you ask him why? He replies that a hurricane is coming and it's going to be exactly right here in 50 hours. Wouldn't one have to assume that the Sheriff has been smoking something out of the evidence locker!!??

[TSmith274]

You know, reading this thread made me realize something. New Orleans is at the point now where it is almost impossible to evacuate efficiently. Why? For one, there are nowhere near enough interstates servicing the N.O. area. I-10 is about all we have. I-59 doesn't start until Slidell, and I-55 at LaPlace. This leaves New Orleans with basically one east-west interstate, much of which is woefully undersized with only two lanes of traffic. The exit for I-59 is ONE LANE. We need lots of money to widen our interstate bridges and highways. Secondly, this situation is a direct result of the fact that the New Orleans area no longer has a natural buffer zone to protect against hurricanes... the coastal marshes and barrier islands. While we do need to address the evacuation problems, we also need to ensure that we are somewhat protected form hurricanes. It's time that we restore our coastline before it's too late. But, like everything, people have to die before things change. And I'm afraid that's what might happen.

[Jagno]

I'm just amuzed at the fact that Gov. Blanco is calling this a statewide plan when in fact it's just for southeast Louisiana. I live directly across the state in southwest Louisiana with only one single 2 lane highway leading north. The last evac was a mess to say the least.

[LSU2001]

I am moving to Lower Lafourche parish ie. Cut Off La. later this summer so this new plan will affect me directly.
I can't believe that the govt. officials here in Louisiana actually believe that anyone will leave any area in south La. 72 hours out. They must really be crazy. If this plan had been in place for Ivan I would have had to evacuate before he hit Cuba. That is silly. What always happens is that people wait until the day before a storm is to hit and then head north thus jamming the interstates. I drove down to cutoff and back to BR just before Ivan and had no problem because I took back roads like la. 1 308 and river road. The trip was longer in miles but much shorter than the 8 to12 hours being reported for the trip between NOLA and BR. I need to plan out a good secondary escape route now i guess.
Sorry for the outrage at our public officials but this plan is plain dumb.
Tim

[LAwxrgal]

Not to mention there are people in New Orleans proper who wouldn't be able to evacuate anyway (people w/o transportation, disabled people, etc.) I suppose that's a problem with any major metropolitan area, but particularly in New Orleans.

As for the contraflow plan, someone either in this thread or another one suggested that it extend into Texas. That sounds like a decent suggestion, but what if a storm forecast 72 hours out hits west of its "intended" target? Or east?

The reasoning I think for the 72 hour evacuation is because (by their reasoning) it will probably take that long for as many people in those lower-lying areas as possible to get out of harm's way. I agree with many of you in that I think it's a fallacy that they can predict within 72 hours that a storm is definitively heading in such a such direction for such and such place. Heck, I remember last year with Ivan that they had no such certainty with his track until about 12 hours before landfall.

[LaPlaceFF]

Indeed this has become a interesting thread...