DSutherland predicted the lull were are in now..

[wxcrazytwo]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=68766

[WindRunner]

Oh yes, he did, but it was almost as obvious by looking at the GFS runs around 7/30 - 8/1. It showed no development until the very end of the 384hrs. Since we haven't quite gotten there yet, having nothing significant doesn't surprise me. Harvey/Irene/TD10 have just been here to keep us busy doing something, and most people have said they developed because of the SSTs and not the environment. And the environment has been such an inhibitor in all three of the storms, namely the persistent shear and the strong SAL. If the SSTs had been anywhere near normal, than these three wouldn't have been here and the past two weeks would appear more as the lull they would have been in a more normal season.

[johngaltfla]

I'm not suprised by this. The problem with a lull like this is not for us S2Kers.

The problem is for the general public who gets a false sense of security that nothing else will happen this season despite repeated warnings from the TV and Radio that it won't happen that way.

I fear that like last year, people will return their hurricane supplies and be foolish. I commend the professional mets on TV and Radio for telling everyone that the worse is yet to come.

I pray more people listen, but knowing human nature, I doubt it.

[Radar]

Considering the over active season we have been experiencing I say this "lull" is a welcomed change. However, I believe this season is far from over. IT is only Mid-August after all.

[Swimdude]

Did Webster change the definition of "lull"..?

[wxmann_91]

Did Webster change the definition of "lull"..?

IIRC, last month he changed the definition to "a moment in August and September where there aren't five major hurricanes at one time in the Atlantic basin". LOL - J/K

[Swimdude]

Thanks, I was pretty sure there must've been some change...

[Thunder44]

Did Webster change the definition of "lull"..?

If we don't have 3 major hurricanes threatening to the hit the US mainland, it's a lull to many on this board.

[jkt21787]

Did Webster change the definition of "lull"..?

If we don't have 3 major hurricanes threatening to the hit the US mainland, it's a lull to many on this board.

Yep, that's very true. People aren't interested in fish or weak storms though. It has to be a possible U.S. threat, and better yet, a strong system.

We all saw how many replies on the Irene thread there were when it could have been a U.S. problem, and the minute the threat of a US landfall dropped off, how many replies there were then.

The consensus among most of the board is...
FISH STINK!!!

[ohiostorm]

Yeah this really isnt a lull. I mean we have 2 storms if TD 10 comes back. Just no storms effecting land.

[CFL]

Isn't it more the norm to have several storms between mid August and mid September that don't necessarily hit land? I would think (hope) that last year's many storms hitting Florida would be more of a rarity.

[donsutherland1]

Wxcrazytwo,

My idea was that CV storms would have difficulty making the passage to North American landfall, not necessarily that the season would fall quiet. Franklin, Harvey, and Irene all recurved. But things are now in transition toward a situation where such storms should have a much better chance at making the trans-Atlantic passage.

[beachbum_al]

The problem is for the general public who gets a false sense of security that nothing else will happen this season despite repeated warnings from the TV and Radio that it won't happen that way.

I fear that like last year, people will return their hurricane supplies and be foolish. I commend the professional mets on TV and Radio for telling everyone that the worse is yet to come.

I pray more people listen, but knowing human nature, I doubt it.

I have to agree with you on this. We are not even in the active season yet and people are already writing the season out. Until the end you never know. It is only August and we still have September to go through.