Stupid Question

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Astro_man92
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Stupid Question

#1 Postby Astro_man92 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 4:04 pm

If a hurricane forms in the atlantic and crosses over to the pacific is it possible for it to go and hit asia ???
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jax

#2 Postby jax » Thu Aug 18, 2005 4:05 pm

nope...
to much cold water between here and there...
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#3 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 18, 2005 4:05 pm

It can happen. But it would need to cross the small part of land near 12 north/85 or so west.
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#4 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 18, 2005 4:17 pm

Sure, if John can get over there from EPAC (1 in ~800,000 chance I'd guess) he could have come from the Atlantic (1 in ~700 chance), and if he slides down the appropriate side of the trough or bend around the high (1 in ~700,000 chance from that far east), then he could hit land.

Total (estimated) chance: 1 in 392,000,000,000 (billion) with those numbers.

Seeing the Atlantic produces about (not a point to argue) 14 storms/year, that would be once every 28 billion years.

Considering the earth is only 4 billion years old, that gives it a 1 in 7 chance of having already happened. It probably won't because the sun will burn out before that 28 billion b-day. (I think the estimate is 12 billion years from now)

NOTE: The above numbers are complete speculation and are intended for humerous purposes :lol:
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#5 Postby The Big Dog » Thu Aug 18, 2005 4:17 pm

Theoretically, yes. Here is what I offer as proof that it could happen:

We know that storms have crossed from the Atlantic to the EPAC. Just for the example, we'll take the Cesar/Douglas transition in 1996:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... /track.gif

Now, take a look at the EPAC map for 1994, and notice how many storms made it to the date line (or close) as hurricanes or tropical storms.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... /track.gif

Finally, take a look at the WPAC map from 1994, and notice how many of those storms had origins near the date line.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_p ... /track.gif

So, yes, it is possible. I would even venture to say that it probably has happened at some point, although we have no record of it. Regardless, that would be a truly legendary storm.

And no, it wasn't a stupid question at all. :-)
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#6 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 18, 2005 4:30 pm

Oh no, Astro_man92, that's not a stupid question. I just like to look at things like that. Don't trust the numbers, though, they're probably making it seem like too little of a chance

And Big Dog makes a good point. It's perfectly possible, but I'm sure there's something strong around 170E keeping the two basins apart.
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#7 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 18, 2005 4:45 pm

It's possible... but probably won't happen.

It would have to stay well south of Hawaii.
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#8 Postby boca » Thu Aug 18, 2005 4:55 pm

That's a gteat question sure it could happen although very slim chance.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#9 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 18, 2005 4:59 pm

A storm that stays around 12 north or low rider. Could move over that small area of land(Central America) Then into the Eastern Pacific in head westward all the way across.
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superfly

#10 Postby superfly » Thu Aug 18, 2005 5:08 pm

I would venture to say that it has happened many many times throughout history but just none documented.

The real question is if there's ever been a CV storm that crossed into EPAC then CPAC then WPAC then crossed over into the Indian Ocean and hit eastern Africa :lol: .
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#11 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 18, 2005 6:19 pm

superfly wrote:I would venture to say that it has happened many many times throughout history but just none documented.

The real question is if there's ever been a CV storm that crossed into EPAC then CPAC then WPAC then crossed over into the Indian Ocean and hit eastern Africa :lol: .


Or it could miss Africa to the south and hit Brazil for their second cane.
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#12 Postby The Big Dog » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:07 pm

WindRunner wrote:
superfly wrote:I would venture to say that it has happened many many times throughout history but just none documented.

The real question is if there's ever been a CV storm that crossed into EPAC then CPAC then WPAC then crossed over into the Indian Ocean and hit eastern Africa :lol: .


Or it could miss Africa to the south and hit Brazil for their second cane.

Well, why stop there? Why not just have this permanent hurricane going round and round the world? :lol:
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#13 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:17 pm

The Big Dog wrote:
WindRunner wrote:
superfly wrote:I would venture to say that it has happened many many times throughout history but just none documented.

The real question is if there's ever been a CV storm that crossed into EPAC then CPAC then WPAC then crossed over into the Indian Ocean and hit eastern Africa :lol: .


Or it could miss Africa to the south and hit Brazil for their second cane.

Well, why stop there? Why not just have this permanent hurricane going round and round the world? :lol:


Hmmmm, I sense a "Day After Tomorrow" scenario coming on :)
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#14 Postby Astro_man92 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:25 pm

WindRunner wrote:Sure, if John can get over there from EPAC (1 in ~800,000 chance I'd guess) he could have come from the Atlantic (1 in ~700 chance), and if he slides down the appropriate side of the trough or bend around the high (1 in ~700,000 chance from that far east), then he could hit land.

Total (estimated) chance: 1 in 392,000,000,000 (billion) with those numbers.

Seeing the Atlantic produces about (not a point to argue) 14 storms/year, that would be once every 28 billion years.

Considering the earth is only 4 billion years old, that gives it a 1 in 7 chance of having already happened. It probably won't because the sun will burn out before that 28 billion b-day. (I think the estimate is 12 billion years from now)

NOTE: The above numbers are complete speculation and are intended for humerous purposes :lol:
no the sun lives for like 10 trillion years so it could happen maybe 100 times or by then 10000000000000 because maybe al the land will move south toowards the south pole and then hurricanes could move all the way around he world of course I'm not paying any atention to what I'm typing so. Wel it could happen lol
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