Disturbing Scenario

[wxwatcher91]

I will have to agree that cat 3 IS pretty much out of the question before 1st landfall... 100mph could be reached but that's as high as I'm going to go.

[jrod]

Have you seen the convection blowing up around the center??? That is very disturbing in my opinion...also outflow is looking very nice over the past couple of hours....

it should be a hurricane later tonight....

It wont be a hurricane tonight. I just want to see what that pressure is doing. The weather station on GBI is not showing a pressure fall however, it is showing TD force winds.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

Without the pressure falls I think it is safe to say it isnt rapidly intensifying.

[johngaltfla]

I will have to agree that cat 3 IS pretty much out of the question before 1st landfall... 100mph could be reached but that's as high as I'm going to go.

I won't even guess. If the storm stalls, at all, all bets are off....

[Foladar]

Have you seen the convection blowing up around the center??? That is very disturbing in my opinion...also outflow is looking very nice over the past couple of hours....

it should be a hurricane later tonight....

It .. wont .. go .. from 45mph .. to 74mph .. by tonight (11:59pm) .. sorry

[jrod]

Without the pressure falls I think it is safe to say it isnt rapidly intensifying.

At least not at the moment.

[Wacahootaman]

For what it is worth, this GFDL computer model has it crossing the upper keys as a cat 3!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2 ... l/slp8.png

It also has it close enough to the west coast of Fla for Cat 1 winds from naples to Sarasota.

Lets hope this doesnt happen!

[Wacahootaman]

The UKMET has it skirting the west coast even closer than the GFDL.

UKMET has it crossing Florida so It would be a lot weaker in the gulf in that senario but it wont take much to cause damage to the Tampa bay and barrier islands of the SW Gulf coast where even a 4 foot storm surge could flood lots of waterfront homes.

In either senario, the strongest winds would blow on shore and could build quite a storm tide along this track.

[Jim Cantore]

50mph at 11pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 250237
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...KATRINA HEADING WESTWARD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...HURRICANE WARNINGS
IN EFFECT...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
ESTIMATED BY THE MIAMI RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 220 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF KATRINA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY BEFORE
REACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EAST COAST. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH KATRINA IN A FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAN BAHAMA ISLAND JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.0 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[johngaltfla]

For what it is worth, this GFDL computer model has it crossing the upper keys as a cat 3!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2 ... l/slp8.png

It also has it close enough to the west coast of Fla for Cat 1 winds from naples to Sarasota.

Lets hope this doesnt happen!

That would "suck" for those of us in Sarasota, we flood every afternoon we get a thunderstorm.

My concern is the rapid intensification all out local mets are worried about...