KATRINA FORECAST #2

[george_r_1961]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Katrina is presently making landfall near Ft Lauderdale and a slow westerly motion wil continue thru tonight. Winds sustained to hurricane force along with VERY heavy rains will continue over south Florida into Friday with isolated tornadoes also possible.

Computer models continue to diverge with GOM landfall occuring anywhere from New Orleans to Pensacola. An inverted trough to the north of Katrina could cause a southwest drift for a time tonight; then I expect the cyclone to get caught up in a weakness in the ridge and turn more north then northeast. This could be a major rain event for the southeast US by the middle of next week. If the storm tracks more to the eastern part of the GOM, which I believe is the most likely scenario, there will be only modest strengthening in the GOM prior to the second landfall over the Panhandle owing to the shallowness of the warm water. A more westward track, which I believe is less likely, would bring the cyclone over deeper warm water and allow for a stronger storm. A track more eastward than the one I am expecting could bring Katrina over the open Atlantic off of Georgia or South Carolina. Therefore coastal interests from the Carolinas southward should continue to monitor the progress of Katrina