TAMPA?

[bucman1]

Is it safe to say the central wes tcoast is pretty safe right now?

[gatorcane]

NO! Look at the cone..Tampa Bay is in it

[johngaltfla]

Not until it passes your latitude.

[loon]

Not until it passes your latitude.

Heheheh, yeah, like all the people that Kat was above on the East coast until she took a turn SW.

[Rainband]

Is it safe to say the central wes tcoast is pretty safe right now?

Looking better than 24 hours ago but just watch and wait. Say some prayers for those to the north. They are going to need them if the current forecast pans out.

[StormWarning1]

YES. The central West coast is very safe from a direct hit. At least a 100 miles safe. The turn to the North will be more gradual that earlier thought and will have very little eastward component at landfall.

[gatorcane]

go with the NHC...

If you are in the cone then you can get a direct hit...

and Tampa is well with the cone.

plain and simple.

[bucman1]

Wasn't Tampa out of the cone earlier this morning?

[dcuevas]

Thanks for this question. I think everyone is playing the waiting game. She is so unpredicable right now. For all those "experienced Stormies" What is your personal opinon of Tampa Bay? The news station aren't really saying much.

[NastyCat4]

Disclaimer: This is an amateur opinion, and reflects nothing official, nor the opinion of Storm2k. For expert advice, consult the NHC.

My peronsal opinion is that the "right turn" isn't going to happen. Everybody is tying their horse to a trough that may or may not influence Katrina. Given the fact that she's still tracking South of West (265), unless she were to make a virtual dead stop, and a 90 degree sharp bend, that won't be a likely track. The West Coast of Florida is probably safe, with the usual proviso of unpredictability. A track So of West, then West and WNW is far more likely--bringing Katrina into the Northern GoMex. I'd guess on a landfall between Pensacola (sorry folks, you don't deserve it) and Louisiana, with the likelihood of a replay of Ivan on the border area. Intensity is almost definitely a major--Cat 4 seems logical to me.

[NastyCat4]

deleted accidental double post--sorry

[djtil]

yes.

[djtil]

If you are in the cone then you can get a direct hit...

thats really not the definition of cone.

[jasons2k]

If you are in the cone then you can get a direct hit...

thats really not the definition of cone.

Um yeah it is. Why else would it exist?

Exhibit A: Charley

[djtil]

no its not.

its derived from the 60 mile pass of the center, not direct hit.

[jasons2k]

no its not.

its derived from the 60 mile pass of the center, not direct hit.

IF YOU ARE IN THE CONE YOU MOST CERTAINLY CAN TAKE A DIRECT HIT. Please refer below for accurate information.

Instead of offering one probable track, modern hurricane predictions are shaped like a funnel. A line down the center indicates the most likely track, but the cone shows the probability of a strike based on similar hurricanes in the past. Anybody within that cone, stresses Timothy Olander, a hurricane researcher at the Space Science and Engineering Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, could come face-to-face with nature's worst storm.

http://whyfiles.org/073hurricane/3.html

But what went ignored was the white "cone of uncertainty" over the black line, indicating the potential track area. So, when Charley took a slight turn to the east in its final hours before landfall, many southwest Florida residents were caught off-guard despite the graphic's warning they might be in danger.

"We didn't tell anybody the center is going to go to Tampa or the center is going to go to any other place," Avila said.

This winter, the hurricane center came up with two alternatives: the cone and dots, without the line; and colored circles indicating the margin of error inside a cone. After surveying the public, including emergency officials and meteorologists in the media, the experts decided to keep the line because it was judged to be the clearest way to show a projected path while still indicating the margin of error.

One new development is an experimental graphic showing the probability of hurricane- and tropical storm-force winds over inland regions. Like Decker searching for a way to sound an alarm, this was something the hurricane center lacked.

"The forecast (for Charley) was good," Avila said. "But it's the way we tell the people."

http://cbs4.com/newslocal/topstoriesmia ... 12038.html

[otowntiger]

Disclaimer: This is an amateur opinion, and reflects nothing official, nor the opinion of Storm2k. For expert advice, consult the NHC.

My peronsal opinion is that the "right turn" isn't going to happen. Everybody is tying their horse to a trough that may or may not influence Katrina. Given the fact that she's still tracking South of West (265), unless she were to make a virtual dead stop, and a 90 degree sharp bend, that won't be a likely track. The West Coast of Florida is probably safe, with the usual proviso of unpredictability. A track So of West, then West and WNW is far more likely--bringing Katrina into the Northern GoMex. I'd guess on a landfall between Pensacola (sorry folks, you don't deserve it) and Louisiana, with the likelihood of a replay of Ivan on the border area. Intensity is almost definitely a major--Cat 4 seems logical to me.

While I don't take issue with a prediction that she probably won't make a direct hit on the west coast, I do however disagree with your ascertion that she won't make that turn simply because she is headed in a certain direction now. Hurricanes are able to do all kinds of twists and turns, and loop de loops. There still is enough uncertainty in the synoptic pattern that a number a scenarios are still possible. Always a sure sign of weak steering currents is slow forward motion.

[dcuevas]

Since she has intensified could she move faster north and the trof push her to us or skate our cost?