18z models: Back to New Orleans

[jkt21787]

So much for that hyped up east shift...

[HollynLA]

I heard this about an hour ago, appearantly, it's really starting to target NOLA as the bullseye.

[smashmode]

BamD shifts back west...it may spare NOLA.

The others have also shifted west..and its right on top of nola..

Ugh.

[smashmode]

I heard this about an hour ago, appearantly, it's really starting to target NOLA as the bullseye.

Heres hoping it dies right off the coast like lili did.

[PTrackerLA]

Jesus just when I thought things might be trending east, SE LA is still ground zero. How trusty are the BAM models? They put me in the eyewall .

[storms in NC]

when you get in a 2 day window it is almost right. -or + a few miles

[JTD]

I am really getting quite tired of the NHC 98E and it's antics

[Scorpion]

Dont trust the BAMS. Go with the globals.

[krysof]

N.O better wake up. This horrible may be happening. Plus even if it's west of NO they will have it worse.

[jkt21787]

Dont trust the BAMS. Go with the globals.

And also important to point out all of the globals have near or direct NOLA impacts. Some a bit west, some a bit east. But NOLA still very much in the bullseye.

[WindRunner]

I am really getting quite tired of the NHC 98E and it's antics

Why? It's coming in line, it's just now out of Florida

[storms in NC]

But no one wants to leave till Sunday. Why

[mvtrucking]

Dont trust the BAMS. Go with the globals.

And also important to point out all of the globals have near or direct NOLA impacts. Some a bit west, some a bit east. But NOLA still very much in the bullseye.

I have not been following hurricanes for that long.Is it still a good possibility that this can change and go east, say Florida? I know the models can flip flop. It is what 48 hrs out? A lot can happen right?

[JTD]

I am really getting quite tired of the NHC 98E and it's antics

Why? It's coming in line, it's just now out of Florida

ROFL

[smashmode]

But no one wants to leave till Sunday. Why

you have 24 hours to get out..that *should* be enough time right?

What would a direct hit on NOLA, what kind of impact would that have for Biloxi/gulfport?

[AL Chili Pepper]

I'm not going to get caught up in the east/west/no change debate, but the model runs don't really look that much different. MS coast.....SE LA. We're splitting hairs. Until Kat makes her northward move, nobody along the Northern Gulf Coast can breathe any easier.

[jkt21787]

Dont trust the BAMS. Go with the globals.

And also important to point out all of the globals have near or direct NOLA impacts. Some a bit west, some a bit east. But NOLA still very much in the bullseye.

I have not been following hurricanes for that long.Is it still a good possibility that this can change and go east, say Florida? I know the models can flip flop. It is what 48 hrs out? A lot can happen right?

Chances are decreasing with every run that does not show a east shift. A east shift to especially MS, even AL, is possible, but its looking less and less likely for FL. Of course folks there should still keep an eye on it just in case.

[LaBreeze]

What does everyone think are the chances of a slight westward shift? Is it at all possible?

[SamSagnella]

What does everyone think are the chances of a slight westward shift? Is it at all possible?

I would say that until Katrina actually makes the right turn, you're definitely not out of the woods.

[karenfromheaven]

Dont trust the BAMS. Go with the globals.

And also important to point out all of the globals have near or direct NOLA impacts. Some a bit west, some a bit east. But NOLA still very much in the bullseye.

I have not been following hurricanes for that long.Is it still a good possibility that this can change and go east, say Florida? I know the models can flip flop. It is what 48 hrs out? A lot can happen right?

The best hurricane minds on the planet are sitting in a building in Miami watching the models flip back and forth just like we are. And they issued the hurricane watch for YOUR area, not mine over here in Panama City, not Pensacola, not Texas, but YOUR area. That means they expect you to shortly experience hurricane conditions. So unless your house can withstand wind speeds equal to an F2 tornado and an angry ocean 15-20' higher than normal, you need to seriously think about turning off the computer and GET OUT NOW.

To any New Orleans residents who may be reading this thread in the comfort of their living room: Turn off the computer and GET OUT NOW. A tsunami-like wall of water is heading your way, and time is running out.