Possibly of interest to Alabama and Mississippi posters...

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Steve
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Possibly of interest to Alabama and Mississippi posters...

#1 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 27, 2005 4:54 pm

This is not an official forecast or anything of the sort. It's simply an observation by a rank amateur who has spent the majority of the past 32 hours in front of a computer and needs a nap badly. I'm going to take that nap after this post. 8-)

The 12 hour position from the NHC 4pm advisory put Katrina at 24.9N and 86.8W. However, during the eyewall replacement cycle, Katrina stalled out temporarily and then kind of shunted northerly before jumping to the northwest (per visible sat imagery). She may resume a WNW motion or not and it's difficult to tell unless you're on the rapid site which I'm too tired to use for this post. But I've got Katrina (based on Goes 12 Visible zoom) at 21:15UTC a center fix at about 24.91N, 85.87W. That's approximaetly 1 degree farther east about to cross 25. Now I realize that this is old (43 minutes as I type this), but downstream implications assuming the track doesn't bend back to the west could possibly mean a greater threat to points east of SE LA than some might be willing to recognize.

Only time will tell, and by that time, I'll be sound asleep. So good luck and get your collective butts in gear for whatever else you need to get done.

Steve
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#2 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 27, 2005 4:55 pm

:cry:
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#3 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 27, 2005 4:58 pm

Steve... are you staying???

Yeah... I'm very concerned about an Ivan-like wobble right into the MS coast... at this point, it's about the best case scenario because thousands are gonna be dead in New Orleans if the NHC is right...
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#4 Postby artist » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:03 pm

I think he had posted he was. Got the family out though (but don't quote me)
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#5 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:04 pm

As of now, yeah. My wife has to work tonight (she's an RN) and doesn't get off until 7am. I have my oldest and youngest on the clogged roads to Alexandria, LA My middle kid is home with me now and will be heading out with my wife at some point tomorrow when the traffic eases up a bit (could be late into the night or maybe just in the afternoon depending on how many people left today and tonight. There's a chance I'll be going with them, but I'll have to make that decision tomorrow.

Of note was that the 21:45 hi-res frame slipped the center about .1 south from the 21:15 frame. So she's still spinning along in a phone-cord type movement. We'll give it another look on the other side of night.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Steve
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#6 Postby Rainband » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:10 pm

STEVE what are you still doing there. I am gonna Kick you @@s. Get your family and go north. I know you "like the storms" The beer and stuff but this one is serious> :(
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#7 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:15 pm

Is Old Metaire near Metaire?

You need to get out if so... :eek:
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#8 Postby rtd2 » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:44 pm

Just got back from a couple hours at work (Keesler AFB) And all the Hardning is complete and base is now at HURCON 3. I will be riding out KAT at my Office on base. will head down there tommorow
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