11:30 AM TWO: 92L, NO LONGER ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on September 2, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Maria...centered about 880 miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

Satellite images indicate that shower activity associated with the
tropical wave midway betwen Africa and the Lesser Antilles has
diminished and development during the next day or two is no longer
anticipated. The tropical wave should continue to move westward at
15 mph.

Disorganized showers between Bermuda and the Bahamas are associated
with a broad trough of low pressure. Upper-level winds not
favorable for development.

The remains of Tropical Depression Lee are centered about 700 miles
east of Bermuda. Re-development is not expected.
Time.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Saturday.

Public advisories on Tropical Storm Maria are issued under
WMO header wtnt34 and under AWIPS header miatcpat4 and
forecast/advisories are issued under WMO header wtnt24 and under
AWIPS header miatcmat4.

Forecaster Avila

[MortisFL]

great news there regarding 92L

[WeatherEmperor]

good. so many here didnt believe me when I said it was too far south but oh well.

<RICKY>

[Jim Cantore]

Same general area and same date as Ivan developed last year

creepy lets hope it turns out diffrent cause the gulf just cant handle another hit if it hits the same area as Katrina in its time if it has one New Orleans, Biloxi, Bay St Louis, Gulfport, Dauphin Island will be finished

[Jim Cantore]

I'm hoping that forcast holds and it doesnt get into a real favorable area

[CFL]

Best news I've heard all day. Let's hope it stays this way and all storms developing stay out at sea.

[Canelaw99]

That's good news for the time being, but as we all know, storms can regenerate if they want too.

[SouthFloridawx]

Satellite images indicate that shower activity associated with the
tropical wave midway betwen Africa and the Lesser Antilles has
diminished and development during the next day or two is no longer
anticipated. The tropical wave should continue to move westward at
15 mph.

Forecaster Avila

000
WTNT45 KNHC 141440
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS
STILL A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS EVIDENCED BY LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND
A QUIKSCAT PASS...BUT IT IS WEAK...20-25 KT. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM
DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...IT NO LONGER
MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE ADVISORIES
ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
REGENERATION...AND THE DEPRESSION'S REMNANTS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY
320/6. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...UNLESS
REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.8N 46.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[aOl]

Yeah but they said TD10 would regenerate...

[donsutherland1]

HURAKAN,

Just a quick point. NHC only suggests that development over the next day or two is not likely. It does not suggest that 92L won't ever develop. Its immediate weakness might well contribute to its longer-term threat. A lack of early development makes recurvature less likely.

[SouthFloridawx]

HURAKAN,

Just a quick point. NHC only suggests that development over the next day or two is not likely. It does not suggest that 92L won't ever develop. Its immediate weakness might well contribute to its longer-term threat. A lack of early development makes recurvature less likely.

makes it steared by the lower level winds right? That is what has happend to a few systems allowing them to make it so far west.

[JamesFromMaine2]

any one know what the models are saying about 92L? yesterday the GFDL had 92l as a cat 4 or 5 in 120hours do they still say that or not?

[nequad]

Hot off the press 12Z GFS is much weaker and way east and north of the Islands.

The attention will now turn to the Bahamas by late in the weekend.

[apocalypt-flyer]

I seriously doubt that this was the last word on 92L. I hope it will be but I'm sure there will be some redevelopment at some point within the next 7 days.

[WeatherEmperor]

Hot off the press 12Z GFS is much weaker and way east and north of the Islands.

The attention will now turn to the Bahamas by late in the weekend.

wait wait. what do you mean the attention will now turn to the Bahamas? What is in the Bahamas?

<RICKY>

[truballer#1]

Steering currents pushed the invest92l somewhat south of due west, bringing the low so close to the equator that the low was unable to use the Earth's spin to help it maintain its own spin. A tropical system cannot maintain the spin needed to develop if it ventures too close to the equator, since a portion of the Earth's spin is required. There has never been a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic spin up south of 8N.

Nevertheless, this wave needs to be watched the next few days as it tracks westward towards the Leeward Islands. When the wave moves a bit further north two or three days from now, the low wind shear and warm waters should be conducive to develpment.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Old frontal boundary that will be looked at for possible development. Some clouds are beginning to increase a little bit. Other than that there is nothing... for now.

[snowflake]

http://megaopps.8m.com/tropicwatch.html