TD16 Trapped? Betsy/Jeanne-like Scenario in the GFS?

[LAwxrgal]

If for some reason they say it's coming to Jacksonville and we're in the cone, the track will always move the next day. We are extremely lucky. One day our luck will run out though.

Yes, unfortunately. Ours did, in a big way. Just remember to be prepared.

[HurricaneGirl]

Yup! That's all you can do is be prepared. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

[NastyCat4]

What makes me think it won't loop? The computer models aren't written by meteorologists--they're written by code writers. There are millions of lines of code, and it can frequently get buggy, or data prejudicial. This is the intrinsic fault of computer modeling--it can't interpret or draw inferences--it just reacts to the data input. Clearly, Jeanne is big in the database, and the senario is being replayed by the computers. This is the same as the models that had Katrina doing an extreme right hook into Florida for a second landfall---storms don't generally move as abruptly, but move in a gradual arc. Jeannne was an unusual situation, and any storm in a somewhat similar milieu will be replayed by the models, and it is bad data.

[WeatherEmperor]

thats why we have great meteorologists at the NHC to interpret the data from the computer models.

<RICKY>

[NastyCat4]

thats why we have great meteorologists at the NHC to interpret the data from the computer models.

Yup. And, that is why they aren't buying too heavily into the loop--they have it as a possible senario, but are considering other ones as well.

[MWatkins]

What makes me think it won't loop? The computer models aren't written by meteorologists--they're written by code writers. There are millions of lines of code, and it can frequently get buggy, or data prejudicial. This is the intrinsic fault of computer modeling--it can't interpret or draw inferences--it just reacts to the data input. Clearly, Jeanne is big in the database, and the senario is being replayed by the computers. This is the same as the models that had Katrina doing an extreme right hook into Florida for a second landfall---storms don't generally move as abruptly, but move in a gradual arc. Jeannne was an unusual situation, and any storm in a somewhat similar milieu will be replayed by the models, and it is bad data.

The Global models do not look at history…at all. They are physics based and are governed by the laws of motion…they have no memory of Jeanne. And even if they were based on climatology…there have been so many systems in this part of the basin at this time of year that Jeanne would only be a minor minor blip in the database.

As for the reason for the S motion in the models…especially the GFS and UKMET…one can see these models want to build in a mountain of air in the SE US. Even the most recent 12Z GFS run…even though it takes this system further east early on…still leaves it behind…and has a very impressive 594DM ridge building in late in the 5 day forecast period.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108m.gif

Just because it gets south doesn’t automatically mean it gets west over time…pressure heights will build in to the west of the cyclone as well…likely leaving it hanging out in the western Atlantic for some time to come.

MW

[Patrick99]

I also think it's a mistake to say that hurricanes can't change direction abruptly. Cat. 2-3 Elena had no problem doing it.

[artist]

any further thoughts?